Latvian Maritime academy

increase, inflation decreases, because cargo flows make positive economic effect. Macro index of thecountries directly affects port handling capacity and opportunities to expand their business. Correlationbetween import, export and liquid cargo flows describes the flow direction. In Latvia model dependenceof liquid cargo flows on export (r = 0.3, No. 2) is bigger than on import(r = -0.48, No. 3). Correlation characterises transit or export status of liquid cargo in Latvia. Quitedifferent situation demonstrates Lithuanian model: strong correlation between liquid cargo flow andimport (r = 0.76, No. 8), and between GPD (r = 0.66, No. 9) possibly characterises liquid cargo as animport and shows flow direction to the country.Table 4. Correlation model for Latvia and Lithuania [13, 14]No. Correlation parameters Liquid cargo Export Import GDP InflationLatvia1. Liquid cargo handling, thousand t 1 - - - -2. Export, mln. EUR 0.3 1 - - -3. Import, mln. EUR -0.46 -0.24 1 - -4. GDP, % -0.2 -0.07 0.94 1 -5. Inflation, % 0.48 0.05 0.04 0.32 1Lithuania1. Liquid cargo handling, thousand t 1 - - - -2. Export, mln. EUR -0.5 1 - - -3. Import, mln. EUR 0.76 -0.05 1 - -4. GDP, % 0.66 -0.07 0.96 1 -5. Inflation, % 0.47 -0.4 0.32 0.39 1Comparing handling of liquid cargo in the Klaipeda and Ventspils port, two data time series ofliquid cargo flows in ports were made, which helped to determine the changes in the loading in the portsduring the same periods of time. According to analysis of data time series (Figure 4) it was found, that atKlaipeda port cargo traffic 2003-2007 dropped sharply and in 2008 began to rise, and Ventspils cargotraffic 2003-2006 ranged evenly, and since 2007 decreased rapidly and fell all time.Changes of the liquid cargo flows (decrease and increase) are determined by economical factors asnominal GDP, export, import and inflation.Figure 4.Trend analysis of liquid cargo flows in ports of Klaipeda and Ventspils 2006-2012 [4, 5]After evaluation of changes and factors of cargo handling in the port that affect the handling, theregression equation can be created in order to predict results of each port as well as factors affectinginterface.Klaipeda port trend defined by (1) the trend equation.y Klaipeda = 513.03t + 14,281 (1)Ventspils port trend defined by (2) the trend equation.y Ventspilis = -372.34t + 19,414 (2)41