12.07.2015 Views

Billie Pettersson and Frank R. Lichtenberg - SNS

Billie Pettersson and Frank R. Lichtenberg - SNS

Billie Pettersson and Frank R. Lichtenberg - SNS

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Table 1. Estimation of incremental cost effectiveness of pharmaceutical innovationEstimatedvalues in 2009in theabsence of 9prior years ofLine VariableActual values,2009 (Y actual )pharmaceutical innovation(Y no_innovation )Difference(Y no_innovation -Y actual )1 Life expectancy (Mean ageat death)80.03 79.56 -0.47Per capita medicalexpenditure in 2009, USDPPP2 Prescription drugexpenditure$336 $245 -$913 Hospital expenditure $935 $1 047 $1124 Other medical expenditure $2 450 $2 450 $05 Total medical expenditure $3 721 $3 742 $216 Lifetime medicalexpenditure (= lifeexpectancy * total medicalexpenditure in 2009)$297 792 $297 682 -$109We then performed sensitivity analyses. If we assume that there is no hospital costreduction from pharmaceutical innovation, the results indicate that costs are well belowthe consensus value of a statistical life-year. If we assume that the hospital cost reductionis half as large as our estimates indicate, <strong>and</strong> that pharmaceutical innovationalso reduced other medical expenditure (e.g. nursing home expenditure) proportionally,pharmaceutical innovation would be cost-saving.19

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