Pastoralist Drought Management Tool - Disaster risk reduction

Timing of interventions: stilla problem• Early warning tracking late indicators• Insufficient livestock focus• Concern over how drought phasesdetermined (not transparent nor objective)• New tools might help

Early warning systems (EWS)• Purpose EWS– Support implementation of timely interventions• Characteristics EWS– T: Timeliness: Sufficient time btw detection hazardand up-scaling intervention– S: Spatial explicit: Knowing where to intervene– D: Decisiveness: Clarity what to do and when

Do current EWS allow timely, spatiallyexplicit and decisive decision making?– Weather models ENSO / SST:• T+++; SE --; DE: --– Rainfall records• Field: T: +/--; S: --; D: --• TRIM T: +++; S: +++; D: --– Vegetation greenness:• NDVI: T: +++; S: +++; D: --– Physiological indicators• LBC: T: ---; S: +/-;

Proposed EW system for livestockbased interventions• Predicting vulnerability as function of– Hazard: NDVI - reflects the severity of the weatheranomaly and vegetation production– Sensitivity: Livestock body condition – integratesvarious effects• Advises on appropriate interventions– Decision support system based on LEGS and otherexpert knowledge (for recovery and normal)– Linked to drought cycle management (DCM): whatto do when

Decision making droughtmanagement interventionsEWSRecovery NormalDMCEmergency AlertDSSwhatto doDCFReliefHazardNDVISensitivityLBCPastoral lands and livelihoods

HAZARD: Monthly and 12 month running average of NDVI1982-2009

Sensitivity• GoK EWB has information on livestock bodycondition (LBC)• We decided to use this as sensitivity indicator,– Pro: it best indicates how prone to drought livestockwill be– Problem: LBC data unreliable,– Advise: need to do better effort to collect LBC data

EWS and drought managementcycle (DMC)• Not clear how decision is made on stage of DMC• Propose state of DMC for livestock based onLBC and NDVI• Convincing and respected decision makingrequires decision on threshold to be used• We propose tabular format as in next slide

NDVI dataOperational frameworkHazardClassificationClassified NDVI+ -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -LivestockBody Condition (LBC)SensitivityClassificationVery poorPoorAverageGoodVery goodClassifiedLBC

Allocating drought cycles tohazard + sensitivitySensitivityVery poorPoorAverageGoodVery goodNDVI+ -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -EmergencyAlertNormalClassified NDVIDCM areasClassifiedSensitivity

Classified NDVIDCM areasClassifiedSensitivityAverage NDVIfor the past 5 yearsDowngradeUpgradeFinal DCM Areas

Using the Pastoral Drought Management ToolSelect an study area e.g., TurkanaClassify Hazard and SensitivityHazard:NDVISensitivity:Livestockbody condition perlocation

DCM areas for TurkanaLEGS decision treesEmergencyAlertNormalInteractive tree

What has been achieved• Programmed DSS and link to DMC• Programmed infrastructure for the EWS

What needs to be done• In this project– Review by experts, writing report• Outside this project– Review of potential to implement this toimprove system• E.g. what sensitivity data available at whatgeographic level in different countries?– Upscale the system consequently