Bangladesh 1993-1994 Demographic and Health ... - Measure DHS

3.4 Fertility TrendsFertility rates reported in the BDHS reflect an extremely steep decline over the past 20 years whencompared against previous estimates. Fertility has declined from 6.3 births per woman in the mid- 1970s to3.4 births for the period 1991-93 (Table 3.3). Since the period 1989-91, fertility has declined from 4.3 to 3.4births per woman, a drop of 21 percent in a two-year period. This is by far the most dramatic drop in fertilityever recorded in Bangladesh. As Figure 3.3 indicates, the decline since the mid-1980s has been generallyuniform over all age groups of women except those 45-49, for whom there has been no change.Table 3.3 Trends in current fertility ratesAge-specific rates and total fertility rates, selected sources, Bangladesh,1975-1994Survey and approximate time period1975 1989 1989 1991 1993-94BFS BFS CPS CPS BDHSAge group 1971-75 1984-88 1986-88 1989-91 1991-9315-19 109 182 171 179 14020-24 289 260 241 230 19625-29 291 225 217 188 15830-34 250 169 160 129 10535-39 185 114 109 78 5640-44 107 56 53 36 1945-49 35 18 14 13 14Total fertility rate 6.3 5.1 4.8 4.3 3.4Note: For the 1975 and 1989 BFSs, the rates refer to the 5-year periodpreceding the survey; for the other surveys, the rates refer to the 3-yearperiod preceding the survey. The two BFSs and the BDHS utilized fullbirth histories, while the 1989 and 1991 CPSs used 5-year and 8-yeartruncated birth histories, respectively.Source: 1975 BFS (MHPC, 1978:73); 1989 BFS (Huq and Cleland,1990:103); 1989 CPS (Mitra et al., 1990:74); 1991 CPS (Mitra et al.,1993:34).Table 3.4 presents total fertility rates by single calendar year for 1980 to 1993 from various sources.The data, depicted in Figure 3.4, show the steep decline in fertility that has occurred in Bangladesh. The ratesfrom the 1989 BFS and the 1989 and 1991 CPSs are generally consistent, while the data from the BangladeshBureau of Statistics' sample registration system are initially implausibly low and therefore show a moremoderate decline over time. The steepest decline is shown by the data from the 1993-94 BDHS; the totalfertility rates are higher than the other sources from 1984 to 1990, and then fall below those reported by theBBS.27