Smart Grids Roadmap - Smart Grid Sherpa

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Figure 12 shows the SG 0case with total peakdemand under the BLUE Map Scenario with nodemand response capability and deployment ofEVs/PHEVs to 2050. In this case, peak demandincreases faster than overall consumption – 29%over the 2010 value by 2050. When some levelof scheduling spreads out the charging of EVs/PHEVs over the course of the day, the increase inpeak demand is reduced to 19% over the 2010value. When both scheduled charging and V2G aredeployed, peak demand increases by only 12% by2050. With the addition of demand response, peakdemand could be held steady at 2010 values.Regional scenarios fordeployment to 2050This roadmap compares the impact of smartgrids on system operation among four regions,combining the ETP BLUE Map Scenario with theSG MAXand SG MINscenarios. In the SG MINBLUE MapScenario, deployments of clean energy technologysuch as VarRE and EVs/PHEVs are significant, butpolicy support for smart grids is modest. In theSG MAXBLUE Map Scenario, deployments of cleanenergy technology such as varRE and EVs/PHEVsare the same as in the SG MINcase, but the policysupport for smart grids is strong. Tables 7 and 8look at the increase in peak demand and overallelectricity demand compared with 2010 values forthe different regions.Table 7 shows that China will see more growthin electricity demand than the other regions willsee in 40 years on a net and percentage basis.The other regions will only see growth in therange of 22% to 32% from 2010 to 2050, andno net growth in the near future because of loweconomic growth and the deployment of energyefficiency technologies. Some minor reductions intransmission and distribution line losses have beenincluded in the analysis, but they have little impacton overall demand.Table 7. Increase in electricity demandover 2010 values for SG MINandSG MAXscenarios* (%)2020 2030 2040 2050China 53 90 122 170EuropeanUnionNorthAmerica0 10 26 27-3 1 16 22Pacific 0 6 17 32* Electricity generation was modeled using the same parameters forboth the SG MINand SG MAXscenarios.Table 8 shows that in all cases, the SG MAXscenariosees a significant decrease in peak demand,providing the opportunity to delay investmentsin and/or reduce stress on existing infrastructure,especially in the context of new loads such as EVs/PHEVs. The most interesting case is North America,where a 22% increase in overall electricity demandcan be seen, but only a 1% increase in peakdemand by 2050 in the SG MAXcase. China’s overalldemand growth has a dramatic effect on thecountry’s peak demand over 2010 levels and is thedominant driver for this increase in the analysis.In other regions, peak demand is increased bydeployment of EVs/PHEVs and greater use ofelectricity in buildings. All regions except Chinashow that the deployment of smart grids, even to aminimum level, can decrease the rate of peak loaddemand to a level below overall demand growth.Table 8. Increase in peak demandover 2010 values for SG MINand SG MAXscenarios (%)ChinaSG MIN56SG MAX552020 2030 2040 20509991140125200176EuropeanUnionSG MIN1SG MAX-413530183217NorthAmericaSG MIN-4SG MAX-100-9100151PacificSG MIN-2SG MAX-726 Technology Roadmaps Smart grids4-41222511© OECD/IEA, 2010
Interpreting results and furtheranalysisThe regional results provide guidance for the typesof pathways that each region might follow as theydevelop smart grids. China has the opportunityto deploy smart grid technologies to better planand design the new infrastructure that is beingbuilt, thereby reducing the negative impacts onpeak demand from the deployment of EVs/PHEVs.OECD Europe and OECD Pacific 18 demonstratesimilar trends with respect to all drivers, but OECDEurope shows the highest peak demand of theOECD regions considered. OECD Europe also mustmanage deployment within an older infrastructurebase and with higher deployments of variablegeneration technology. OECD North America canbenefit significantly from the deployment of smartgrids, given that it is the largest electricity marketin the world and has an ageing infrastructure,especially at the transmission level. A NorthAmerican smart grid pathway might thereforefocus on the benefits of demand response andtransmission system monitoring and management.This roadmap provides some insights into thebenefits and possible regional pathways for smartgrids deployment, but more analysis is needed,particularly of the generation side, to provide amore complete picture of system performance.Additional regional examination is also neededto consider specific system attributes. Majorcharacteristics of developing countries were notconsidered in this modelling, and should be addedto provide insights into developing regions.Smart grid CO 2emissionsreduction estimates to 2050Although electricity consumption only represents17% of final energy use today, it leads to 40% ofglobal CO 2emissions, largely because almost 70%of electricity is produced from fossil fuels (IEA,2010). In the ETP BLUE Map Scenario, as a result ofdecarbonisation, electricity generation contributesonly 21% of global CO 2emissions, representingan annual reduction of over 20 Gt of CO 2by 2050.Smart grid technologies will be needed to enablethese emissions reductions. Direct reductions willoccur through feedback on energy usage, lower linelosses, accelerated deployment of energy efficiencyprogrammes, continuous commissioning of servicesector load, and energy savings due to peak loadmanagement. Indirect benefits arise from smartgrid support for the wider introduction of electricvehicles and variable renewable generation.Taking these direct and indirect emissionsreductions into account, the ETP BLUE MapScenario estimates that smart grids offer thepotential to achieve net annual emissionsreductions of 0.7 Gt to 2.1 Gt of CO 2by 2050(Figure 13). 19 North America shows the highestpotential for CO 2emissions reduction in the OECD,while China has highest potential among non-OECD member countries.Estimating smart gridinvestment costs andoperating savingsA high-level cost/benefit analysis is vital for thedeployment of smart grids. Work carried out so farin the roadmap process is providing the foundationfor such an analysis, but more effort is needed asadditional data and modelling become available.The cost discussion needs to include the threemain electricity stakeholders: utilities, consumersand society.Utilities will experience both costs and savingsin the deployment of smart grids, in the areas ofoperating and capital expenditure. The deploymentof new generation (such as variable generation)and end-use technologies (such as electricvehicles) could increase the need for investmentin infrastructure, therefore raising capitalexpenditures; but smart grids have the potential toreduce peak demand, better manage generationfrom both variable and dispatchable sources,and therefore reduce the potential increases inconventional infrastructure costs. Operating savingscan come from decreased costs for maintenance,metering and billing, and fuel savings throughincreased efficiencies and other areas.Electricity production costs fluctuate accordingto basic supply and demand conditions in themarket, generation variability (such as unplannedoutages), system congestion and the prices of18 Although OECD Pacific is modelled as a single region, itscountries are not highly interconnected; further analysis must becarried out to determine how this will affect the areas of concerndemonstrated in the model.19 The methodology for calculating the emissions reductionbenefits requires further refinement but this provides anindication of the potential reductions.Vision for smart grid deployment to 205027© OECD/IEA, 2010
Page 4 and 5: Table of contentsForeword 1Table of
Page 6 and 7: AcknowledgementsThis publication wa
Page 8 and 9: IntroductionThere is a pressing nee
Page 10 and 11: Figure 2. Smart grids can linkelect
Page 12 and 13: Electricity system needs for today
Page 14 and 15: line rating special protection sche
Page 16 and 17: Figure 6. Example of a 24-hour elec
Page 18 and 19: Adequacy concerns introduced by the
Page 20 and 21: cable or telephone), support data t
Page 22 and 23: Table 3 highlights a number of hard
Page 24 and 25: Box 3. Smart communitiesSeveral con
Page 26: Vision for smart grid deployment to
Page 31 and 32: commodities such as oil, gas, coal
Page 33 and 34: operators have made it clear that m
Page 35 and 36: Interoperability Framework for smar
Page 37 and 38: Electricity system and market opera
Page 39 and 40: This roadmap recommends the followi
Page 41 and 42: zzzzHow much time differentiation i
Page 43 and 44: International collaborationThis roa
Page 45 and 46: Conclusion: near-term roadmapaction
Page 47 and 48: GlossaryCritical peak pricing (CPP)
Page 49 and 50: ReferencesBazilian, M. and Welsch,
Page 52: Technology Roadmaps Smart Grids2015

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