Smart Grids Roadmap - Smart Grid Sherpa

Vision for smart grid deployment to 2050Smart grids are complex systems that incorporate anumber of technologies, consumer interactions anddecision points. This complexity makes it difficultto define detailed development and deploymentscenarios. Smart grid technologies are beingdeveloped worldwide, so much of the research,development and demonstration (RD&D) can bediscussed in a global context. But deploymentneeds to be discussed at the regional level, whereimportant factors such as the age of infrastructure,demand growth, generation make-up, andregulatory and market structures vary significantly.Regional analysis andimpacts for deploymentMotivated by economic, security or environmentalfactors, countries will choose their own prioritieswhen adopting smart grid technologies. Wherepossible, the costs and benefits of differentapproaches must be quantified to assess theimpacts of potential smart grid deployment. Thefollowing regional characteristics need to be takeninto account in any regional assessment:zzzzzzzzzzzzCurrent and planned mix of supply, includingfossil, nuclear and renewable generation.Current and future demand, and sectoralmake-up of demand, such as manufacturingindustry, residential load prevalence or thedeployment of electric vehicles.Status of existing and planned newtransmission and distribution networks.Ability to interconnect with neighbouringregions.Regulatory and market structure.Climatic conditions and resource availability.vision for four regions: OECD North America,OECD Europe, OECD Pacific and China. Data in theanalysis includes: 16zzzzzzzzzzAnnual demand.Electric vehicle (EV) deployment and peakdemand as a function of EV deployment.Demand response potential.Future potential electricity use in buildings.Deployment of advanced meteringinfrastructure.The model focuses on the demand side of theelectricity system; variable renewable deploymentis considered in the discussion but not in theanalysis itself. 17 The scenarios modelled are shownin Figure 11. In the SG MAXscenario, there is strongregulatory and policy support for the developmentand deployment of smart grids, whereas theSG MINscenario assumes little policy support. Theamount of clean technology installed – such asheat pumps, variable renewable resources (varRE)and electric vehicles (EVs/PHEVs) – follows thedeployment pathways developed by the ETP 2010analysis in the Baseline and BLUE Map Scenarios.Figure 11. Regional smart gridsanalysis structureQuantification of peakdemand and the impact ofsmart grids 15The incentives, or drivers, behind smart griddeployment and the interactions between suchdrivers need to be understood in the context oflocal or regional electrical systems. This roadmaphas expanded upon the ETP 2010 scenarios todevelop a more detailed regional electricity system15 A detailed description has been developed as an IEA working paper.entitled: Impact of smart grid technologies on peak load to 2050.KEY POINT: Two scenarios – SG MAXand SG MIN–were conducted to assess smart grids impacton peaking demand under the ETP Baselineand BLUE Map Scenarios.16 Energy efficiency improvements in end-use sectors are modelledin the ETP BLUE Map and Baseline Scenarios.17 Although smart grids will play a role in all parts of systemoperation, this roadmap will examine the impact of smart gridson peak demand. By focusing on the demand portion of theelectricity system, this analysis is complementary and related to theIEA GIVAR study, which focuses on electricity system flexibility interms of variable renewable generation deployment. Both sets ofanalysis will be integrated at a later time.24 Technology Roadmaps Smart grids© OECD/IEA, 2010