Smart Grids Roadmap - Smart Grid Sherpa

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Electricity system needs for today and the futureBox 1: Energy Technology Perspectivesscenario descriptionsThe ETP BLUE Map Scenario aims to ensurethat global energy-related CO 2emissions arereduced to half their current levels by 2050.This scenario examines ways in which theintroduction of existing and new low-carbontechnologies might achieve this at leastcost, while also bringing energy securitybenefits in terms of reduced dependenceon oil and gas, and health benefits as airpollutant emissions are reduced. The BLUEMap Scenario is consistent with a long-termglobal rise in temperatures of 2 o C to 3 o C,but only if the reduction in energy-relatedCO 2emissions is combined with deep cutsin other greenhouse-gas emissions. TheBaseline Scenario considers the business-asusualcase, not reducing emission levels toany predetermined goal by 2050. The BLUEMap and Baseline Scenarios are based onthe same macroeconomic assumptions.Over the last few decades, generation and networktechnology deployment, market and regulatorystructures, and the volume and use of electricityhave changed significantly. This transformationhas largely been managed successfully, but ageinginfrastructures mean that further changes couldaffect system stability, reliability and security.Smart grid technologies provide a range ofsolutions that can be tailored to the specific needsof each region. The primary global system trendsand the role of smart grids are illustrated in thefollowing sections using the Energy TechnologyPerspectives (ETP) Baseline and BLUE Map Scenariosdeveloped by the IEA to estimate future technologydeployment and demand (Box 1).Future demand and supplyIncreased consumptionof electricityElectricity is the fastest-growing component of totalglobal energy demand, with consumption expectedto increase by over 150% under the ETP 2010Baseline Scenario and over 115% between 2007and 2050 under the BLUE Map Scenario (IEA, 2010).Figure 3. Electricity consumption growth 2007-50 (BLUE Map Scenario)600%500%400%300%200%100%0%OECD NorthAmericaOECDEuropeOECDPacificTransitioneconomiesChina India Other Africadeveloping AsiaCentral and MiddleSouth America EastGlobalaverageSource: IEA, 2010.KEY POINT: Emerging economies will need to use smart grids to efficiently meet rapidly growingelectricity demand.10 Technology Roadmaps Smart grids© OECD/IEA, 2010
Growth in demand is expected to vary betweenregions as OECD member countries experiencemuch more modest increases than emergingeconomies and developing countries (Figure 3). InOECD countries, where modest growth rates arebased on high levels of current demand, smart gridtechnologies can provide considerable benefitsby reducing transmission and distribution losses,and optimising the use of existing infrastructure.In developing regions with high growth, smartgrid technologies can be incorporated in newinfrastructure, offering better market-functioncapabilities and more efficient operation. In allregions, smart grid technologies could increasethe efficiency of the supply system and helpreduce demand by providing consumers with theinformation they need to use less energy or use itmore efficiently.Deployment of variablegeneration technologyEfforts to reduce CO 2emissions related toelectricity generation, and to reduce fuel imports,have led to a significant increase in the deploymentof variable generation technology. 2 This increaseis expected to accelerate in the future, with allregions incorporating greater amounts of variablegeneration into their electricity systems (Figure4). As penetration rates of variable generationincrease over levels of 15% to 20%, and dependingon the electricity system in question, it canbecome increasingly difficult to ensure the reliableand stable management of electricity systemsrelying solely on conventional grid architecturesand limited flexibility. Smart grids will supportgreater deployment of variable generationtechnologies by providing operators with realtimesystem information that enables them tomanage generation, demand and power quality,thus increasing system flexibility and maintainingstability and balance.There are some good examples of successfulapproaches to integrating variable resources.Ireland’s transmission system operator, EirGrid, isdeploying smart grid technologies, including hightemperature,low-sag conductors and dynamic2 Variable generation technologies produce electricity that isdependent on climatic or other conditions, meaning there is noguarantee that it can be dispatched as needed. This includeselectricity generation from wind, photovoltaic, run-of-riverhydro, combined heat and power, and tidal technologies.Figure 4. Portion of variable generation of electricityby region (BLUE Map Scenario)30%25%2010205020%15%10%5%0%OECD NorthAmericaOECDEuropeOECDPacificTransitioneconomiesChina India Otherdeveloping AsiaAfricaCentral andSouth AmericaMiddleEastSource: IEA, 2010.KEY POINT: All regions will need smart grids to enable the effective integration of significantlyhigher amounts of variable resources to their electricity grids.Electricity system needs for today and the future11© OECD/IEA, 2010
Page 4 and 5: Table of contentsForeword 1Table of
Page 6 and 7: AcknowledgementsThis publication wa
Page 8 and 9: IntroductionThere is a pressing nee
Page 10 and 11: Figure 2. Smart grids can linkelect
Page 14 and 15: line rating special protection sche
Page 16 and 17: Figure 6. Example of a 24-hour elec
Page 18 and 19: Adequacy concerns introduced by the
Page 20 and 21: cable or telephone), support data t
Page 22 and 23: Table 3 highlights a number of hard
Page 24 and 25: Box 3. Smart communitiesSeveral con
Page 26: Vision for smart grid deployment to
Page 29 and 30: Interpreting results and furtherana
Page 31 and 32: commodities such as oil, gas, coal
Page 33 and 34: operators have made it clear that m
Page 35 and 36: Interoperability Framework for smar
Page 37 and 38: Electricity system and market opera
Page 39 and 40: This roadmap recommends the followi
Page 41 and 42: zzzzHow much time differentiation i
Page 43 and 44: International collaborationThis roa
Page 45 and 46: Conclusion: near-term roadmapaction
Page 47 and 48: GlossaryCritical peak pricing (CPP)
Page 49 and 50: ReferencesBazilian, M. and Welsch,
Page 52: Technology Roadmaps Smart Grids2015

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