Forecasting for the Love Boat: Royal Caribbean Cruises in 1998(
Forecasting for the Love Boat: Royal Caribbean Cruises in 1998( Forecasting for the Love Boat: Royal Caribbean Cruises in 1998(
Appendix 1Cruise Industry, Demographic and Macroeconomic DataPanel A: passengers and berths over timeyear 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988annual passengers (thousands) 1431 1453 1471 1755 1859 2152 2624 2898 3175average lenth of trip (days) 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.4 6.4% of passengers on 2-5 day trips 29.6 25.3 21.6 22.3 26.3 35.1 32.8 32.9available berths 41073 47266 47834 52392 56771 60446 66810 72268passenger growth % 1.5% 1.2% 19.3% 5.9% 15.8% 21.9% 10.4% 9.6%berth growth % 15.1% 1.2% 9.5% 8.4% 6.5% 10.5% 8.2%year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998annual passengers (thousands) 3640 3979 4136 4480 4448 4378 4656 5051 5428average lenth of trip (days) 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.6% of passengers on 2-5 day trips 38.3 37.4 35.2 36.7 38 33.7 35.9 33.6 34.7available berths 83533 86631 97539 103988 103296 105171 110292 118399 138373passenger growth % 0.10773 0.093132 0.039457 0.083172 -0.007143 -0.015737 0.063499 0.084837 0.074639berth growth % 0.154265 0.037087 0.125913 0.066117 -0.006655 0.018152 0.048692 0.073505 0.168701Panel B: existing and new capacity1998 existing 1998 existing NEW Capacity 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001total totalnew newships berths ships berths ships berths ships berths ships berths33 39466Carnival Cruises(includes Holland brand)3 5480 2 6180 2 3900 7 1556016 29800Royal Caribbean Cruises(includes Celebrity brand)1 3100 2 5100 3 6100 6 1430096 69107 All Other Cruise Lines 7 7794 2 2800 4 6296 13 16890145 138373 Total New Ships/Berths 11 16374 6 14080 9 16296 26 46750Panel C: destinationsDestination (total bed-days) 1987 % of Total 1995 % of Total 1998 % of TotalCARIBBEAN 8,828,791 43.3% 15,254,551 42.8% 17,117,659 38.7%MEDITERRANEAN 841,051 4.1% 3,477,729 9.8% 5,092,530 11.5%ALASKA 1,715,197 8.4% 3,008,146 8.4% 3,790,816 8.6%BAHAMAS 1,922,386 9.4% 2,761,224 7.7% 2,891,352 6.5%TRANSCANAL 970,191 4.8% 2,277,201 6.4% 2,612,788 5.9%MEXICO WEST 1,131,462 5.6% 1,754,312 4.9% 2,421,126 5.5%EUROPE 357,516 1.8% 1,582,589 4.4% 3,714,437 8.4%BERMUDA 1,141,121 5.6% 1,094,707 3.1% 1,094,982 2.5%SOUTH AMERICA 620,396 3.0% 255,830 0.7% 943,392 2.1%TRANSATLANTIC 339,388 1.7% 658,928 1.8% 725,040 1.6%HAWAII 602,728 3.0% 601,542 1.7% 745,216 1.7%ALL OTHER (15 other locations) 1,906,767 9.4% 2,935,123 14.4% 3,091,374 15.2%TOTAL 20,376,994 100.0% 35,661,882 100.0% 44,240,712 100%PanelD: U.S. demographics
US Demographic Estimates 1-Jul-98 1-Jul-99 1-Jul-00 1-Jul-01 1-Jul-02 1-Jul-03 1-Jul-04 1-Jul-05(all amounts in thousands)Po p ulation, All Ages 270,299 272,820 275,306 277,803 280,306 282,798 285,266 287,716Summary Ind ic a torsMedian Age.......... 35.2 35.5 35.8 36 36.2 36.4 36.5 36.7Mean Age............ 36.2 36.4 36.5 36.7 36.8 36.9 37.1 37.224 a nd und er 95,342 96,197 96,969 97,792 98,484 99,143 99,695 100,11725 to 39 61,400 60,556 59,717 58,862 58,158 57,564 57,137 57,01540 to 59 68,886 70,981 73,108 75,131 77,020 78,485 80,027 81,36760 a nd over 44,670 45,086 45,514 46,016 46,645 47,606 48,406 49,220annual growth in population 0.93% 0.91% 0.91% 0.90% 0.89% 0.87% 0.86%a ge 24 and under 0.90% 0.80% 0.85% 0.71% 0.67% 0.56% 0.42%a ge 25-39 -1.37% -1.39% -1.43% -1.20% -1.02% -0.74% -0.21%a ge 40-59 3.04% 3.00% 2.77% 2.51% 1.90% 1.96% 1.67%a ge 60 a nd over 0.93% 0.95% 1.10% 1.37% 2.06% 1.68% 1.68%Panel E: macroeconomic trends and estimates% growth in Personal% growth in CPI Consumption Recreationreal GDP (inflation) Expenditures Expenditures1980 -0.3 13.5 -0.4 -0.11981 2.3 10.3 1.2 4.01982 -2.1 6.2 1.2 2.41983 4.0 3.2 5.2 8.91984 7.0 4.3 5.2 9.51985 3.6 3.6 4.7 6.41986 3.1 1.9 4 8.01987 3.0 3.6 3.1 7.31988 3.8 4.1 3.9 8.01989 3.4 4.8 2.3 4.41990 1.2 5.4 1.7 3.41991 -0.9 4.2 -0.6 1.11992 2.7 3.0 2.8 5.31993 2.3 3.0 2.8 8.81994 3.5 2.6 3.1 8.01995 2.3 2.8 2.3 9.31996 3.5 3.0 2.5 7.71997 3.9 2.3 3.5 8.61998E 3.0 2.91999E 2.1 2.32000E 1.9 2.52001E 2.0 2.4estimates are from the 1998 Economic and Budget Outlook from theCongressional Budget Officesource: Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Page 2 and 3: North America, but may fly to any p
- Page 4 and 5: Who’s OnboardObviously different
- Page 6 and 7: Demand for a Cruise VacationTo date
- Page 10 and 11: -----------------------------------
- Page 12 and 13: According to CLIA and other trade p
- Page 14 and 15: Technological DevelopmentThe Compan
- Page 16 and 17: Cruise PricingThe Company's cruise
- Page 18 and 19: The Company has nine ships on order
- Page 20 and 21: In March 1998, the Company issued $
- Page 22 and 23: ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD.CONSOLI
- Page 24 and 25: ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. CONSOL
- Page 26 and 27: Information about geographic areas
- Page 28 and 29: The Company's debt agreements conta
- Page 30 and 31: FORM 10-KSECURITIES AND EXCHANGE CO
- Page 32 and 33: The Company has signed agreements w
- Page 34 and 35: Depreciation and amortization incre
- Page 36 and 37: CARNIVAL CORPORATIONCONSOLIDATED ST
- Page 38 and 39: CARNIVAL CORPORATIONNOTES TO CONSOL
- Page 40 and 41: SELECTED FINANCIAL DATAThe selected
- Page 42 and 43: Company NameROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES
- Page 44: Company NameCARNIVAL CORPActual Act
Appendix 1Cruise Industry, Demographic and Macroeconomic DataPanel A: passengers and berths over timeyear 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988annual passengers (thousands) 1431 1453 1471 1755 1859 2152 2624 2898 3175average lenth of trip (days) 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.4 6.4% of passengers on 2-5 day trips 29.6 25.3 21.6 22.3 26.3 35.1 32.8 32.9available berths 41073 47266 47834 52392 56771 60446 66810 72268passenger growth % 1.5% 1.2% 19.3% 5.9% 15.8% 21.9% 10.4% 9.6%berth growth % 15.1% 1.2% 9.5% 8.4% 6.5% 10.5% 8.2%year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 <strong>1998</strong>annual passengers (thousands) 3640 3979 4136 4480 4448 4378 4656 5051 5428average lenth of trip (days) 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.6% of passengers on 2-5 day trips 38.3 37.4 35.2 36.7 38 33.7 35.9 33.6 34.7available berths 83533 86631 97539 103988 103296 105171 110292 118399 138373passenger growth % 0.10773 0.093132 0.039457 0.083172 -0.007143 -0.015737 0.063499 0.084837 0.074639berth growth % 0.154265 0.037087 0.125913 0.066117 -0.006655 0.018152 0.048692 0.073505 0.168701Panel B: exist<strong>in</strong>g and new capacity<strong>1998</strong> exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>1998</strong> exist<strong>in</strong>g NEW Capacity 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001total totalnew newships berths ships berths ships berths ships berths ships berths33 39466Carnival <strong>Cruises</strong>(<strong>in</strong>cludes Holland brand)3 5480 2 6180 2 3900 7 1556016 29800<strong>Royal</strong> <strong>Caribbean</strong> <strong>Cruises</strong>(<strong>in</strong>cludes Celebrity brand)1 3100 2 5100 3 6100 6 1430096 69107 All O<strong>the</strong>r Cruise L<strong>in</strong>es 7 7794 2 2800 4 6296 13 16890145 138373 Total New Ships/Berths 11 16374 6 14080 9 16296 26 46750Panel C: dest<strong>in</strong>ationsDest<strong>in</strong>ation (total bed-days) 1987 % of Total 1995 % of Total <strong>1998</strong> % of TotalCARIBBEAN 8,828,791 43.3% 15,254,551 42.8% 17,117,659 38.7%MEDITERRANEAN 841,051 4.1% 3,477,729 9.8% 5,092,530 11.5%ALASKA 1,715,197 8.4% 3,008,146 8.4% 3,790,816 8.6%BAHAMAS 1,922,386 9.4% 2,761,224 7.7% 2,891,352 6.5%TRANSCANAL 970,191 4.8% 2,277,201 6.4% 2,612,788 5.9%MEXICO WEST 1,131,462 5.6% 1,754,312 4.9% 2,421,126 5.5%EUROPE 357,516 1.8% 1,582,589 4.4% 3,714,437 8.4%BERMUDA 1,141,121 5.6% 1,094,707 3.1% 1,094,982 2.5%SOUTH AMERICA 620,396 3.0% 255,830 0.7% 943,392 2.1%TRANSATLANTIC 339,388 1.7% 658,928 1.8% 725,040 1.6%HAWAII 602,728 3.0% 601,542 1.7% 745,216 1.7%ALL OTHER (15 o<strong>the</strong>r locations) 1,906,767 9.4% 2,935,123 14.4% 3,091,374 15.2%TOTAL 20,376,994 100.0% 35,661,882 100.0% 44,240,712 100%PanelD: U.S. demographics
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