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Forecasting for the Love Boat: Royal Caribbean Cruises in 1998(

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Impact of Year 2000The "Year 2000 issue" is <strong>the</strong> result of computer programs that were written us<strong>in</strong>g two digits ra<strong>the</strong>r than four to def<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong>applicable year. If <strong>the</strong> Company's computer programs with date-sensitive functions are not Year 2000 compliant, <strong>the</strong>y mayrecognize a date us<strong>in</strong>g "00" as <strong>the</strong> year 1900 ra<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> year 2000. This could result <strong>in</strong> a system failure or miscalculationscaus<strong>in</strong>g disruptions to operations.RisksBased on its current assessment ef<strong>for</strong>ts, <strong>the</strong> Company does not believe that Year 2000 issues will have a material adverse effecton <strong>the</strong> results of its operations, liquidity or f<strong>in</strong>ancial condition. However, this assessment is dependent on <strong>the</strong> ability of third-partysuppliers and o<strong>the</strong>rs whose system failures potentially could have a significant impact on <strong>the</strong> Company's operations to be Year2000 compliant. For <strong>in</strong>stance, <strong>the</strong> operations of <strong>the</strong> Company could be impacted by disruptions <strong>in</strong> airl<strong>in</strong>es, port authorities, travelagents or o<strong>the</strong>rs <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> transportation or sales distribution channels whose systems are not Year 2000 compliant. Although <strong>the</strong>Company cannot control <strong>the</strong> conduct of <strong>the</strong>se third parties, <strong>the</strong> Year 2000 Project is expected to reduce <strong>the</strong> Company's level ofuncerta<strong>in</strong>ty and <strong>the</strong> adverse effect that any such failures may have.CostsThe total cost associated with required modifications to become Year 2000 compliant are not expected to be material to <strong>the</strong>Company's f<strong>in</strong>ancial position.The Company estimates that it will <strong>in</strong>cur approximately $6.0 million <strong>in</strong> expense on ef<strong>for</strong>ts directly related to fix<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> Year 2000issue, as well as an additional $5.0 million of capital expenditures related to <strong>the</strong> accelerated replacement of non-compliantsystems. The Company has <strong>in</strong>curred approximately $2.0 million <strong>in</strong> expense s<strong>in</strong>ce January 1, <strong>1998</strong>, and spent an additional $2.0million <strong>for</strong> capital expenditures related to <strong>the</strong> accelerated replacement of non-compliant systems. Estimated costs do not <strong>in</strong>cludecosts that may be <strong>in</strong>curred by <strong>the</strong> Company as a result of <strong>the</strong> failure of any third parties to become Year 2000 compliant or coststo implement any cont<strong>in</strong>gency plans.ITEM 9A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISKGeneralThe Company is exposed to market risks attributable to changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>terest rates, currency exchange rates and commodity prices.The Company enters <strong>in</strong>to various derivative transactions to manage a portion of <strong>the</strong>se exposures to market risk pursuant to <strong>the</strong>Company's hedg<strong>in</strong>g practices and policies. The impacts of <strong>the</strong>se hedg<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>struments are offset by correspond<strong>in</strong>g changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>underly<strong>in</strong>g exposures be<strong>in</strong>g hedged. The Company achieves this by closely match<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> amount, term and conditions of <strong>the</strong>derivative <strong>in</strong>strument with <strong>the</strong> underly<strong>in</strong>g risk be<strong>in</strong>g hedged. The Company does not hold or issue derivative f<strong>in</strong>ancial<strong>in</strong>struments <strong>for</strong> trad<strong>in</strong>g or o<strong>the</strong>r speculative purposes. Derivative positions are monitored us<strong>in</strong>g techniques <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g marketvaluations and sensitivity analysis. See Notes 2 and 12 to <strong>the</strong> Consolidated F<strong>in</strong>ancial Statements <strong>for</strong> a discussion of <strong>the</strong>Company's account<strong>in</strong>g policies <strong>for</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>in</strong>struments.Interest Rate RiskThe Company's exposure to market risk <strong>for</strong> changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>terest rates relates to its long-term debt obligations. At December 31,<strong>1998</strong>, <strong>the</strong> fair value of <strong>the</strong> Company's long-term fixed rate debt was estimated at approximately $2,565.0 million us<strong>in</strong>g quotedmarket prices where available, or discounted cash flow analyses. Market risk associated with <strong>the</strong> Company's long-term debt is <strong>the</strong>potential <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> fair value result<strong>in</strong>g from a decrease <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>terest rates. The Company uses <strong>in</strong>terest rate swaps to modify itsexposure to <strong>in</strong>terest rate movements and manage its <strong>in</strong>terest expense. The Company's <strong>in</strong>terest rate swaps are primarily float<strong>in</strong>grate <strong>in</strong>struments that are tied to LIBOR. The fair value of <strong>the</strong> Company's <strong>in</strong>terest rate swaps was approximately $48.6 million atDecember 31, <strong>1998</strong>. A 10% decrease <strong>in</strong> assumed <strong>in</strong>terest rates would <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> fair value of <strong>the</strong> Company's long-term debt byapproximately $73.8 million. This <strong>in</strong>crease would be partially offset by an <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> fair value of <strong>the</strong> Company's <strong>in</strong>terest rateswaps of $18.6 million.

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