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Montserrat Survey of Living Conditions (MSLC) Executive Summary

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<strong>Montserrat</strong> <strong>Survey</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Living</strong> <strong>Conditions</strong><strong>Executive</strong> <strong>Summary</strong>2.2 PopulationThroughout most <strong>of</strong> its recorded history the population <strong>of</strong> <strong>Montserrat</strong> has varied between 10,000 and12,000 with a peak <strong>of</strong> 14,000 being achieved in 1946 (Table ES.1). However while the 1989 hurricane hadonly a minor impact on the population, the impact <strong>of</strong> the volcanic eruption has been catastrophic: in 1997,the population was around 3,400 – only 30% <strong>of</strong> the 1991 figure. By 2001, it had ‘recovered’ to around4,500 and to 5,000 by 2006 2 . The impact <strong>of</strong> the eruption on the geographic distribution <strong>of</strong> population isshown in Figure ES1.With a population as small as this, the start <strong>of</strong> completion <strong>of</strong> large construction projects can leadsignificant changes in population, as workers and their dependents arrive and leave; population growthrates can thus fluctuate significantly from year to year. Since 2000, live births and deaths have bothaveraged around 50 annually implying that there is a negligible natural increase in the population.Table ES1. Population Change, 1881-2006Figure ES1. Population Distribution, 1991 and2001Year Population AnnualGrowth rate60001881 10,0831891 11,762 1.6%1901 12,215 0.4%1911 12,196 0.0%1921 12,120 -0.1%1946 14,333 0.7%1960 12,167 -1.2%1970 11,458 -0.6%1980 11,606 0.1%500040003000200010001991 10,639 -0.8%1997 3,338 -17.6%2001 4,491 7.7%2006 5,031 2.3%0Plymouth1991 2001Rest <strong>of</strong> StAnthonySt George(St John'sMongo Hill,Barzeys)St Peter(isles Bay/Happy Hill)The population <strong>of</strong> all age groups has declined since the eruption but these changes have not affected allage groups equally. In 2001, the main changes were the much increased proportion <strong>of</strong> population in theworking age groups and a corresponding decrease in the population under the age <strong>of</strong> 15 whose proportiondeclined from just over a quarter to under 20%. By 2006, the proportion <strong>of</strong> the elderly had decreasedlargely due to the increased proportion <strong>of</strong> under 15s. The increased number <strong>of</strong> children implies both ageneral stabilisation <strong>of</strong> the population and that migrants are increasingly bringing their children. Howeverthe very low proportion <strong>of</strong> 15-24 year olds (11% compared with 17% in 1991), is clear evidence <strong>of</strong> a‘brain-drain’ as school leavers depart to find tertiary education and employment <strong>of</strong>f the island.2 Initial results from the 2011 Census give a population <strong>of</strong> around 5,000, i.e. little change since 2006.<strong>Montserrat</strong> Country Poverty Assessment, Final ReportHalcrow Group Limited, July 2012.ES3

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