A Better, More Diverse Senior Executive Service in 2050

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We start then with a review of where the Senior Executive Service and its feedergrades stand today. CAP built a dynamic quantitative model to explore the projectedmakeup of the Senior Executive Service in 2030. (See pages 11-13 for details.)Our findings make it clear that the projected ethnic, racial, and gender makeupof the Senior Executive Service will not reflect that of the workforce in 2030 andbeyond. (see table 1) Most notably:SESSenior Executive Service and Civilian Labor Force Comparison 2000-20302000 2010 2020 2030LaborForceDifferenceSESLaborForceDifferenceSESLaborForceDifferenceSESLaborForceDifferenceAsianMale 1.1% 1.6% 2.5% -0.9% 2.7% 3.0% -0.4% 3.4% 3.5% -0.1%Female 0.5%11.1% 2.3% -1.2% 1.8% 2.9% -1.1% 2.6% 3.5% -0.9%Total 1.6% 2.7% 4.8% -2.1% 4.5% 5.9% -1.5% 6.0% 7.0% -1.0%African AmericanMale 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 5.3% 5.6% -0.3% 5.3% 5.8% -0.5% 5.3% 5.9% -0.6%Female 2.9% 6.2% -3.4% 4.0% 6.2% -2.2% 6.7% 6.4% 0.3% 9.5% 6.5% 3.0%Total 8.4% 11.8% -3.4% 9.3% 11.7% -2.5% 12.0% 12.2% -0.2% 14.8% 12.4% 2.4%HispanicMale 2.0% 6.3% -4.4% 2.7% 8.6% -5.9% 3.2% 10.6% -7.5% 4.4% 12.8% -8.4%Female 0.7% 4.6% -3.9% 1.0% 6.0% -5.0% 1.5% 7.7% -6.2% 2.4% 9.7% -7.3%Total 2.6% 10.9% -8.3% 3.7% 14.6% -10.9% 4.7% 18.4% -13.7% 6.8% 22.5% -15.7%OtherMale 0.87% 2 1.2% 1.3% -0.1% 0.9% 1.5% -0.6% 0.9% 1.8% -0.9%Female 0.33% 0.5% 1.2% -0.7% 0.6% 1.4% -0.8% 0.7% 1.6% -0.9%Total 1.21% 1.7% 2.5% -0.8% 1.5% 2.9% -1.4% 1.6% 3.4% -1.8%MinorityMale 9.5% 14.4% -4.9% 10.7% 18.1% -7.3% 12.0% 21.0% -9.0% 13.9% 24.0% -10.1%Female 4.4% 13.0% -8.6% 6.5% 15.6% -9.1% 10.6% 18.4% -7.8% 15.1% 21.3% -6.1%Total 13.9% 27.4% -13.6% 17.3% 33.7% -16.4% 22.6% 39.3% -16.8% 29.1% 45.3% -16.2%WhiteMale 67.3% 39.3% 28.0% 58.9% 36.1% 22.7% 51.1% 33.6% 17.5% 45.1% 30.7% 14.4%Female 18.7% 33.8% -15.1% 23.8% 31.6% -7.7% 26.4% 29.3% -2.9% 25.9% 26.7% -0.8%Total 86.1% 73.1% 13.0% 82.7% 67.7% 15.0% 77.4% 62.9% 14.5% 70.9% 57.4% 13.5%Overall % Male 77% 53% 23% 70% 53% 16% 63% 53% 10% 59% 53% 6%Overall % Female 23% 47% -23% 30% 47% -16% 37% 47% -10% 41% 47% -6%1”Asian” and “Other” data could not be disaggregated because before 2003 the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculated these groups together. See Current Population Survey technical documentation: http://www.bls.gov/cps/rscps03.pdf.2Ibid.Source: Office of Personnel Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CAP Projections.7 Center for American Progress | A Better, More Diverse Senior Executive Service in 2050
• Overall, minorities will likely make up around 29 percentof the Senior Executive Service in 2030 but they will be 43percent of the civilian labor force, according to the Bureau ofLabor Statistics. Currently, communities of color occupy 17percent of Senior Executive Service positions but make up 34percent of the civilian labor force.• In 2030 we project that 41 percent of the Senior ExecutiveService will be women compared with 47 percent of theprojected civilian labor force. While this is an improvementon current figures (in 2010, 31 percent were women), even in2030 there will remain a significant gender diversity gap.• Hispanics will be vastly underrepresented in the SeniorExecutive Service. In 2030 we project that the senior ranks ofthe civil service will be 6.8 percent Hispanic compared to 23percent of the civilian labor force. Hispanics currently occupy3.7 percent of SES posts.• Whites will remain significantly overrepresented. In 2030we project that 71 percent of the Senior Executive Servicewill be white compared with 43 percent of the projectedcivilian labor force. At present, whites are around 83 percentof the Senior Executive Service and form 68 percent of thecivilian labor force.The most diverse and leastdiverse federal agenciesSome agencies are doing a better job includingpeople of color in their Senior Executive Serviceposts while others are particularly deficient. Here’sthe best and worst rankings as of September 2010.Agencies with the best Senior Executive Serviceminority representation• Department of Housing and Urban Development(43 percent)• Department of the Interior (28 percent)• Department of Agriculture (23 percent)Agencies with the worst Senior Executive Serviceminority representation• Department of Defense—civilian (10 percent)• Department of the Navy—civilian (10 percent)• Department of the Air Force—civilian (10 percent)• Department of the Army—civilian (9 percent)• Department of State (8 percent)• The Senior Executive Service will be 6 percent Asian American in 2030compared with 7 percent of the projected civilian workforce. This representsa doubling of their current representation in the top ranks of the civil service,driven by their significantly higher representation in the top ranks belowthe Senior Executive Service. While an improvement, Asian Americans willremain underrepresented.• Pacific Islanders and Native Americans are likely to be significantly underrepresented.These groups form the vast majority of those in the “other”category in our model and in the civilian labor force comparison group. Only1.6 percent of the SES will be “other” in 2030 as opposed to 3.4 percent of thecivilian labor force.But there is also some good news. Our model predicts that by 2030, the percentageof African American members of the Senior Executive Service will broadly8 Center for American Progress | A Better, More Diverse Senior Executive Service in 2050
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Page 6 and 7: Moreover, for a government to effec
Page 13 and 14: and ethnicity, we were unable to fi
Page 15 and 16: Executive Service has grown 11 perc
Page 17 and 18: The case for diversityWhen the Seni
Page 19 and 20: Business leaders from different ind
Page 21 and 22: One reading of the federal governme
Page 23 and 24: Making a commitment to closing the
Page 25 and 26: Establish a sub-comittee of the Pre
Page 27 and 28: Diversity at Kaiser PermanenteThe f
Page 29 and 30: especially given the Obama administ
Page 31 and 32: esented. In implementing its strate
Page 33 and 34: AcknowledgementsThe authors are ext
Page 35: The Center for American Progress is

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