What peace and Whose? - Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre

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14 International Alertof the country struggling with violence and conflict. In Liberia the civil war which started in 1989passed through several unsuccessful agreements, notably in 1995, before a final peace agreementwas reached in 2003. Two years later a Truth and Reconciliation Commission was set up which thenundertook a four-year process, culminating in a final report of findings and recommendations. Thisreport was then shelved, illustrating that the peace process still had far to go. In Northern Ireland, thebreakthrough Good Friday Agreement was reached in 1998, some seven years after talks began. Morethan a decade later, the agreement still held, but violence had not entirely disappeared.Other peace processes and agreements also illustrate the need for patience and the reality that stepsforward are often followed by apparent steps back. In the countries of the former Yugoslavia, themaking and building of peace was done during and after the violent break-up of Yugoslavia. The mostprominent peace agreement, the 1994 Dayton Peace Accords, was only one part of this process anddid not anticipate or prevent further conflict and the later secession of Kosovo from Serbia. In 2000 thepeace process between Israel and the Palestinians collapsed after nine years of disputed progress,during which political agreements were not matched by realities on the ground and improvements intrust and confidence. In more than a decade since then, an effective Israeli-Palestinian peace processhas still not been created. In Somalia, the region of Somaliland unilaterally declared independencein 1991. More than two decades later, the border between Somaliland and the neighbouring region ofPuntland is still disputed and intermittently fought over. Meanwhile, the central and southern parts ofSomalia have remained riven by civil war, despite repeated peace processes and peace agreements.Together, such examples – and the variation between them – give a brief reminder of how varied anduncertain peace and peacebuilding can be. Moreover, they show how important it is for those who wantpeace to keep working for it, long after the ceasefire or the peace agreement has been implemented.Peace presentToday, peace in South Sudan and Sudan remains incomplete and will likely remain so, in thenear future. The evidence for this is the persistent occurrence and risk of violent conflict, mostlyoutside and away from the capitals, main cities and towns. The patterns, types and locationsof conflict are quite well known. The conflict can be sporadic, intense or prolonged. In Sudan,violent conflict is present or at risk of occurring particularly in Abyei, Blue Nile, Darfur and SouthKordofan. In South Sudan, violent conflict is present or at risk of occurring particularly in EasternEquatoria, Jonglei, Lakes, Unity, Upper Nile and Warrap. Within each country there is a risk ofwidening conflict, as well as escalation to direct or indirect war between the two countries, despitedesires and efforts to avoid this happening.Since the formal end of the CPA in July 2011 the pattern of conflict and violence has been much thesame as before and people’s experience of peace has changed little. In Darfur the conflict betweenrebel groups and the government has remained unresolved, despite the government’s attempt toimplement an agreement with one group. The future status of Abyei has continued to be contested bythe inhabitants of the area and by the two governments, whose armed forces have clashed in Abyeibefore. In Blue Nile and South Kordofan civilians have been killed and displaced by fighting betweenthe Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North (SPLA-N). In SouthSudan civilians have been affected by rebellions led by renegade SPLA commanders, southern soldiersdemobilised from the SAF, and others. The violence has been concentrated in rural areas in Jonglei,Unity, Upper Nile and Warrap states. Overlapping with this violence has been inter-communalviolence, for example between the Lou Nuer and Murle in Jonglei.To a large extent, therefore, the challenges of the peace which exists today in each country reflectthe challenges of the peace which existed under the CPA between 2005 and 2011. The underlyingcauses of conflict are not new, as Table 3 shows.
What peace and whose?15Table 3: Some challenges to the present peace in South Sudan and SudanFactorPower Economy Fairness, equalityand justiceSafetyWell-beingMain oppositionparties andmovements donot participate incentral and stategovernments andlegislaturesTransparency andreporting on oilproduction andrevenues is stilllow, contributingto mistrust,misinformationand resentmentLittle is beingdone to advancereconciliation,truth-telling orjustice for victimsof crime andviolenceViolent conflictand insecurityremain commonand widespread,for examplein Blue Nile,Darfur and SouthKordofan, and inJonglei, Unity andUpper NileGap between levelof basic servicesand infrastructurein central areasand in rural/provincial areas iswide and resentedFeelings ofregional politicalmarginalisationencourageaspirationsfor greaterautonomy or selfdetermination(e.g. in Darfur),which are notsatisfiedGovernmentbudget spendingis heavilyconcentratedon salaries,and capitalexpenditure andinvestment isconcentratedaround thenational capitalsPerceivedinequalityand injusticemotivatessome armedopposition to thegovernmentsLevels of smallarms ownershipremain highbecause of weakrule of law inrural areasSome minoritiesand tribal groupsfeel marginalisedor discriminatedagainstConstitutionalreview processesare seen as givingmore powerto the rulingparty, ratherthan benefitingmultipartydemocracyUnemployedyouth are easilymobilised inmilitiasImpunity for crimeand violence leadsto revenge attacksbetween rivalcommunitiesUniformed forcesare seen by someas a cause ofinsecurity and arefearedPeople seek morefreedom andrespect for dignityIf the underlying causes of conflict in South Sudan and Sudan today are largely as they were in therecent past, the context, however, has partially changed. It has changed by virtue of one countrybecoming two, and by virtue of a new post-CPA political dispensation between the NCP andthe SPLM. That dispensation (formal and informal) and the limited guarantees for it (such asinternational monitoring and pressure) may or may not amount to a post-CPA peace agreement.The ripples of the uprisings in the neighbouring Arab world have also introduced the possibilityof further change or pressure for change in the relationship between governments and citizens. Asthe secession of South Sudan recedes and the existence of the two Sudans becomes normalised,the willingness of the populations of each country to challenge their government may increase.Escalating conflict, civil war and fragmentation are possible within each country.By the same token, however, the context for peace and peacebuilding has potentially improved.With the CPA having passed its formal end, the two countries have an opportunity to lookforwards and consider what could be done to build a fuller, more positive peace. What kind ofpeace do the leaders and people of South Sudan and Sudan want to build for themselves now, andhow can they best do this?
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