Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project

Table 11-5: Traffic and Revenue ForecastsTraffic (AADT)Revenue (million Tk)Truck Bus Light Total Truck Bus Light Total2014 3,477 5,693 2,886 12,056 1,187 1,652 391 3,2292015 4,233 6,091 3,362 13,686 1,445 1,768 455 3,6672016 5,154 6,518 3,915 15,587 1,759 1,891 530 4,1802017 6,274 6,974 4,560 17,808 2,141 2,024 617 4,7822018 7,638 7,463 5,311 20,411 2,607 2,165 719 5,4922019 9,299 7,985 6,185 23,469 3,173 2,317 838 6,3292020 11,321 8,544 7,203 27,068 3,863 2,479 976 7,3192024 14,379 9,462 12,030 35,871 4,907 2,746 1,625 9,2782034 24,052 11,737 33,776 69,565 8,208 3,406 4,535 16,1492044 25,871 12,193 35,572 75,636 8,829 3,538 5,044 17,411Source: Detailed Economic and Financial Analysis Report, Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project, 11February 201011.5 Cost Benefit Analysis11.5.1 Economic Evaluation Results17. The cost-benefit analysis was undertaken over a thirty-year period following opening of the bridgein 2014. A real discount rate of 12% was used, reflecting the economic opportunity cost of capital inBangladesh. All costs and benefits were expressed in 2009 prices, and 2009/10 was adopted as thediscount year. Residual value was allowed for in the last year of the evaluation period (2044),assuming an economic bridge life of 100 years.18. The results of the cost-benefit analysis are summarized in Table 11-6.Table 11-6: Economic Evaluation ResultsIncremental to ‘without bridge’ case(US$ million in 2009 prices) aCapital costUS$ 2,128 millionPresent valueCapital cost, net of residual value 1,669O&M costs 104Total costs 1,773Existing Road user benefitsVehicle operating cost savings 2,610Travel time cost savings 1,807Sub-total 4,417New trip benefits 2,171Non-road user benefitsFerry operating cost savings 359Land rental returns 251Utility crossing cost savings 172Separate rail bridge avoided cost 344Bridge structure usage fee revenue 1Sub-total 1,127Total benefits 7,715Net present valueUS$5,942 million11-6