Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project

Table 5-2: GHG emission from the Project interventionYearEstimated Annual Greenhouse Gas Emission (ton)CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O NMVOC Total(CO 2 eq)2009 7,021 2.42 0.18 138.57 7,6902014 50,586 15.23 1.38 800.40 54,5782020 113,033 34.77 3.05 1,868.40 122,2832025 158,661 52.20 4.14 2,994.97 173,1782030 230,920 81.89 5.77 5,012.53 254,7362036 301,647 110.16 7.40 6,898.82 334,203Note: Total CO 2 eq is estimated based on the Global Warming Potential for 100 years data of IPCC2007Source: The Consultant’s Estimate, 2009.16. Green house gas emissions due to ferry operation are estimated and are provided in Table 5-3.Table 5-3: Annual Greenhouse Gas emissions from Ferry operationGHGEmissions, TonsCO 2 9,043CH 4 2.92NO X 0.24NMVOC 159.54Source: The Consultant’s Estimate, 2009.16. Bangladesh emitted 45 million tons of CO 2 equivalent in 2005 (Source: Bangladesh ClimateChange Strategy and Action Plan, 2008) - less than one-fifth of one percent of world total - reflectingits extremely low consumption of energy. Total project GHG emission (Table 5-2) compared to thenational total and world emission (50 billion tons of CO 2 equivalents 2 ) is insignificant.5.4.2 Impact Consideration17. Climate variability will primarily impact on the hydro-meteorological process and the surroundingenvironment will be impacted secondarily from the perturbation in the hydro-meteorologicalphenomenon. Considering the time constrains and sharp deadlines, environmental impactassessment exercise only considers the climate change impact on the hydro-meteorologicalprocesses at the Padma bridge site.5.4.2.1 Precipitation and flood flows18. For extreme event estimation, Generalized Extreme Value distribution method for 1-day and 2-day consecutive maximum rainfall of difference recurrence interval was used. It was found that for a100-year return period event the rainfall may increase due to climate change from 295 mm to 372 mmand 408mm to 514 mm respectively for 1-day and 2-day consecutive maximum rainfall event 3 .19. AR4 (IPCC, 2007a) cites research projecting increases in the occurrence of intense precipitationevents in South Asia. There is, however, no consensus on the magnitude of such increases, and inthe absence of consensus, changes in seasonal amounts were often assumed to translate intoequivalent changes in extreme precipitation amounts. Relying on this assumption, the Institute ofWater Modeling (IWM, 2008) undertook a study of the impacts of climate change on monsoonflooding in Bangladesh assuming a 13% increase in precipitation over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin to estimate flood impacts by 2040 under the A1F1 emissions scenario and acorresponding 22% of increase in the peak discharge of Ganges at Hardinge bridge. But no such2 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change3 For detail result please see the Climate Change Report5-6