Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project

SLR = 100PadmaBridgeatMawaFigure 5-3: Simulation of sea level rise and its propagation into inland areas5.3.2 Temperature Projection13. A high-resolution climate change scenario for India/Bangladesh -A Regional Climate Model calledPRECIS (i.e., providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) is used to get climatic datasets at finerscales. It was found that the mean temperature may increase by 6.1% and 12.9% from base duringyear 2050 and 2090. For 1 in a 100 year extreme temperature event, it is found that the projectedmaximum temperature for year 2050 and year 2100 may be around 43.9 0 C and 46.6 0 C respectively.On the other hand, for the same event, minimum temperature is anticipated to increase to 9.3 0 C and9.9 0 C respectively.5.3.3 Wind Forces14. Research cited by AR4 (IPCC, 2007a) showed a 10 to 20% increase in tropical cycloneintensities associated with a sea-surface temperature rise of from 2 to 4°C. In the absence of otherdata, it is recommended that an increase by 20% in the highest wind speeds derived from the analysisof historic wind data is taken as future wind speed at the Padma bridge location. Generalized extremevalue distribution model showed that a 100 year return period event of wind speed is 91 km/hr and for20% projected increase in the intensity due to climate change it may increase up to 110 km/hr. If weexpect a SIDR like cyclonic event which was a 233 year return period event, then the projected windspeed with 20% increased intensity may be 126 km/hr (1,958 km/day or 87 knot) 1 .5.4 Analysis of Environmental Effects5.4.1 GHG Considerations15. GHG emissions from automobiles consist of the gaseous product of engine fuel combustion(exhaust emissions) and evaporation and leaks from vehicles (Fugitive emissions). Carbon dioxide(CO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions are due to the oxidation of fuel during combustion. Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOC) emissions are fugitive emissions due to evaporationand leaks. Petrol and diesel are the main fuels used for road transport in N8 corridor. With theimplementation of Padma Bridge it is expected that compressed natural gas (CNG) network will bedeveloped and CNG powered vehicles will start to use the road corridor. The current GHG estimatesare based on the consumption of petrol and diesel fuel by different vehicles, the traffic counts data,and the forecasted traffic. Buses and trucks are the main diesel consumers. Petrol is mainlyconsumed by cars and vans. About 75,635 vehicles will use Padma Bridge daily in the year 2036. Inaddition, NMVOC is also calculated for the 330,196m 2 asphalt road surface, which is 17,714 tons.1 For detail result please see the Vol 5: Climate Change Report5-5