Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project

5.3 Climate projections5.3.1 Future Sea Level Rise10. Sea level rise (in the Bay of Bengal) reflects the combined effects of global sea level rise, localchanges in sea level due to ocean density and circulation changes relative to the global average andmay also be influenced by local vertical land movement (e.g. subsidence or uplift) in the vicinity of thebridge site.11. From the available information, three alternative sea level rise scenario has been considered: A high-end low probability estimate of sea level rise: This scenario considers the upperrange of sea level rise estimate projected by IPCC (2007b), additional ice sheet contributionas per Mote et al. (2008) estimate and upper range of local sea level rise in the Bay of Bengalas per IPCC (2007b).Global sea level rise (IPCC, 2007b)0.59 mAdditional ice sheet contribution (Mote et al, 2008)0.34 mLocal sea level rise (IPCC, 2007b)0.05 mTotal0.98 mA low-end estimate of sea level rise: This scenario considered the lower range of IPCCprojection made for the A1F1 scenario and did not include the effect of additional ice sheetcontribution and local sea level rise.Global sea level rise (IPCC, 2007b)0.26 mAdditional ice sheet contribution (Mote et al, 2008)0.00 mLocal sea level rise (IPCC, 2007b)0.00 mTotal0.26 mPragmatic mid-range estimate of sea level rise: This scenario considers the average of thesea level rise estimates as projected by IPCC (2007b) for A1F1 scenario, 50% of the estimatemade by Mote et al. on additional ice sheet contribution, and no effect of local effect of sealevel rise in the Bay of Bengal.Global sea level rise (middle of AR4 A1F1 range)Additional ice sheet contributionLocal sea level riseTotal0.43 m0.17 m0.00 m0.60 m0.50 m0.60 m0.65 m0.80 m 0.85 m0.88 mFigure 5-2: Increase in water level in Meghna Estuary due to 88 cm sea level rise5-3