International Center for Advanced and Comparative EU-Russia

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ICEUR-WORKING PAPERS:ANALYSIS OF RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICYICEUR was founded by a Vienna-based group of concerned citizens from the academic, international andpolitical communities, who are aware of the stalemate in the EU-Russian relationship and pledge creative newapproaches in research and policy consulting.Following an interdisciplinary and multidimensional approach, the ICEUR explores the complex relationsbetween the EU and Russia/NIS in close cooperation with renowned Russian experts. Scope for improvement isidentified and profound analyses are provided to relevant experts and to the interested general public.In June 2009, ICEUR presented the first Working Paper: “Background, Shaping Factors and Orientations ofRussian Foreign Policy - Inside Views”. The Working Papers are meant to provide a forum for experts fromEurope, Russia and the Newly Independent States to comment on current topics.The main part of the first Working Paper is an analysis of the Russian foreign policy, written by Andrey Ryabov,scholar-in-residence at the Carnegie Endowment Center for International Peace in Moscow. Ryabov discussesthe relationship between the domestic interests of the Russian elites and foreign policy, a relationship that isarguably not always comprehensible for the West. Ryabov also touches upon the origins of today's elites inRussia, by exploring the situation in the nineties that brought about a complex amongst the elites of feelingoffended and limited at the same time, and a fixation on the status of the “lonely state” which walks along its ownpath. Ryabov argues that conflicts of interest amongst various Russian elite groups make Euro-Russian relationsambiguous, oscillating between collision course and consensus-oriented approaches.Shorter articles written by the members of the ICEUR team complement Ryabov's analysis and discuss otheraspects of the Russian foreign policy, such as EU-Russia relations, NATO-Russia relations, implications of thewar in Georgia and Russian policy on the Balkans. Two experts from Moldavia analyse the role of Russia in theTransnistrian conflict. The foreword was provided by Johannes Hahn, the Austrian Federal Minister of Scienceand Research. Mr. Hahn stresses the importance of international scientific cooperation, which is a field to whichthe ICEUR can make a substantial contribution.– 1 –
INTRODUCTION TO THE TOPIC:RUSSIA – EU:WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM EACH OTHER?Ludmilla LOBOVAThe Iron Curtain fell more than twenty years ago. The Soviet Union suffered defeat in the Cold War not onlyideologically, but also in geo-economic terms. Russia, as the legal successor of the Soviet Union, has not becomepart of the European security system. During the nineties, Russia neither succeeded in building up a more or lessdurable coalition with the USA or NATO, nor did it enter into a stable partnership with the EU. Eventually,Europe started building up its security system based on two pillars, namely the EU and NATO. Russia wasdoomed to assume the role of an unaffiliated player, both opposing the West and cooperating with it.However, meanwhile it has become obvious that hushing up the problems between Russia and the West will notwork out in the future. Moscow is openly revising the rules of the game regarding its relations to the West,established in the nineties, a period of proceeding disintegration. Russia also resolutely determines its spheres ofinfluence, which was strikingly demonstrated during the five-day war in Georgia in August 2008.The main lesson learned from the development of Russian-Georgian relations, is that the limits of NATOenlargementcomprising the CIS countries (Ukraine and Georgia) could not be reached.The second lesson learned from the war refers to the fact that international relations have not changed in theircore since the Cold War. Not only has the classic “strong hand” in politics remained, but, on the contrary, it hasseen an impressive comeback.Russia is again fighting for its influence over the CIS-countries, and in its attempts to do so, it benefits from theeconomic crisis in the region. This crisis will also obtain a geopolitical dimension. It is exactly the crisis thatgives Russia justification to intensify its influence in the post-Soviet area and build a strong economic basis forits own centre of power.Yet again the West is confronted with the question of how to deal with Russia. Up until now, there have been noreasons to hope that the EU and Russia could come up with an innovative model for long-term cooperation anytime soon. The countries of classic capitalism pursuing their values of political democracy and free marketeconomy have not yet found suitable schemes for cooperating with the countries of the new “authoritariancapitalism”, such as China, Russia, Kazakhstan and South-East-Asian countries, which are rising dynamically.Russia perceives itself as the global leader regarding its control over energy resources and in charge ofreallocating and shifting the global economic performance from the West to Asia. All this is taking place whilethe traditional West still dominates the global media space. It is a very complex task to come up with newstrategies for relations between Russia and the EU. Russia's comeback came as a surprise for everybody,whereas, e.g., it took China three decades to boost its economy.Today, Russia plays both the role of an antagonist and a partner for the West. Therefore, European politicians willboth stick to the politics of Russia's containment and still offer Russia the perspective of fruitful and constructiverelations.However, it is important to bear in mind that Russian foreign policy will continue to mirror domestic problems,Russian domestic policy being primarily determined by factors such as democratic deficit, corruption, lack ofmodernization and the heterogeneous multinational population which has not yet succeeded in forming a unifiedRussian nation.– 2 –
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Page 12 and 13: GEORGIA ON OUR MINDSHans-Georg HEIN
Page 14: THE CONFLICT IN TRANSNISTRIA.FUTURE

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