GREEN GROWTH: FROM RELIGION TO REALITY - Sustainia

Chapter 86 INPE counts Amazon deforestationrates in the nine states of theBrazilian Legal Amazon (see fn. 4).7 Brazilian agriculture is responsiblefor 10% of world agriculturalGHG emissions, second only toChina (McKinsey & Company2009, 24). McKinsey & Company(2009, 24-25) expects agriculturerelatedGHG emissions to grow by40% from 2005 to 2030, of whichcattle rearing will account for 37%of the growth (ibid.).8 In the South, Southeast, andparts of the Center-West regionsof Brazil, cattle ranching competeswith sugar cane farming forland, so ranchers there are forcedto adopt more efficient methodsof production (Nassar 2009, 62).Margulis (2004, 35-36) finds thatcattle ranching productivity alsovaries within the Amazon region,depending on factors such as climate,the productivity of grass, andthe mortality rate of cattle.9 The McKinsey & Company(2009, 6) estimate of 13% includeselectric power generation andfuels for transportation. The 16%number, from IPEA (2010, 128),includes energy generation as wellas consumption in the energy sectoritself, which accounts for 10%of national energy consumption.Exact calculations used for eachof these estimates are unavailable.10 According to McKinsey &Company (2009, 13), “Brazil emitsan average of 94 t[ons] of CO2eper gigawatt hour (GWh) produced.The global average is 580tCO2e per GWh and, in countriesthat rely heavily on coal fired powerplants, can be as high as 1,000tCO2e per GWh.”11 In addition to the controversialBelo Monte mega-dam projectin the Amazonian state of Pará,there are 311 hydroelectric plantsof various sizes planned or beingbuilt, which will add over 15,000MW to Brazil’s energy grid (IPEA2010b, 137).2010 (IPEA 2010, 82; INPE 2011) – largely due to lesscompetitive commodity (beef and soybean) prices resultingfrom the appreciation of Brazil’s currency (the real)against the U.S. dollar, but also partly to conservationpolicies and stronger environmental law enforcement efforts(Banco Mundial 2010, 40).6But despite the recent decline in deforestation, forestloss in the Amazon and elsewhere has been severe: TheWorld Bank estimates that the Amazon lost 18% of its forestcover from 1970 to 2007. During the same period, theneighboring Center-West savannah, the Cerrado, lost 20%of its forest cover, and the coastal Atlantic Forest – of whichonly 7% of its historical expanse remains today, accordingto São Paulo-based NGO S.O.S. Mata Atlântica (2011)– lost 8% (Banco Mundial 2010, 39-40). Cattle ranchingand soybean cultivation contributed to forest loss in theAmazon and Cerrado, while sugar cane farming, coffeeplantations, logging, urbanization and other populationpressures have over centuries decimated the Atlantic forest(McAllister 2008b, S.O.S. Mata Atlântica 2011).Agriculture, including cattle ranching, is Brazil’ssecond-largest greenhouse gas emitter, at 25% of Brazil’stotal GHG emissions – and much of the sector’s growthinvolves deforestation on the Amazon frontier.7 Cattleranching and soybean farming contribute directly andindirectly to particularly high deforestation rates in theAmazonian states of Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and Pará(Greenpeace 2009; INPE 2011; Margulis 2004). In addition,deforestation rates are exacerbated by the fact thatthe productivity of cattle ranching is generally lower inthe Amazon than elsewhere, due to the widespread andincreasing availability of land.8 Section 3 will study therelationship between ranching, agriculture, and deforestationin greater depth.Finally, in contrast to OECD countries, Brazil’s energyDeforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon, Km2 deforested per yearsector contributes very little to Brazil’s GHG emissions.Depending on how energy-related GHG emissions arecalculated, estimates vary from 13% (McKinsey & Company2009, 6) to 16% of Brazil’s total GHG emissions(IPEA 2010, 128).9 Whatever the true number, energyin Brazil contributes comparatively little to Brazil’s GHGprofile because the sector is relatively green, with 46%of energy generation stemming from renewable sourcessuch as wood, biomass, ethanol and biodiesel, and hydroelectricityin 2008 (ibid., 133-134).10 However, Brazilplans to double the supply of energy in the next twentyyears, which will exacerbate two trends that threaten toincrease the sector’s GHG emissions: First, the share offossil fuels (oil and gas) in Brazil’s energy matrix will increasefrom the current 9% to 14% by 2030, which willtriple energy sector emissions from 30MtCO2e in 2008to 90 MtCO2e (McKinsey & Company 2009, 13). Second,investments in expanding the supply of energy from hydroelectricdams, sugar cane-derived ethanol, and otherbiofuels will place greater pressure on land, which couldlead to higher emissions from deforestation.11 Section 4will examine the environmental risks of Brazil’s renewableenergy industries.3 Ranching, agriculture, and Amazon deforestationThe story of green growth in Brazil must begin with alook at agriculture and the deforestation of the Amazon,since together these contribute the largest share ofBrazil’s GHG emissions and, in the case of agriculture,a growing share of Brazil’s economy. Brazil’s problem isthat two of its most lucrative industries are agricultureand ranching, and both of these industries have a longKm2 Deforested per Year30.000290592742325.00020.00015.0002105013227181651291110.0006451500001988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Figure 1: Deforestation Rates in the Brazilian Amazon, 1988-2010 (IPEA 2010, 82; INPE 2011)Source: IPEA 2010, 82; for 2009, 2010: INPE 2011 PRODES website.Green Growth: From religion to reality 87