GREEN GROWTH: FROM RELIGION TO REALITY - Sustainia
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GREEN GROWTH: FROM RELIGION TO REALITY - Sustainia

GREEN GROWTH: FROM RELIGION TO REALITY - Sustainia GREEN GROWTH: FROM RELIGION TO REALITY - Sustainia

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Chapter 7panded (Diao 2010), and new railroads connecting InnerMongolia, Shanxi and central China will also be developed.In addition, coastal ports are being constructed tofacilitate more north-south coal transport via sea lanes(Zhen and An 2011).The wild card in China’s carbon story is carbon captureand sequestration (CCS). In order to reduce thecarbon intensity of coal, the government is actively exploringCCS. In the mid-2000s, the government did notconsider CCS a serious option. Yet by mid-2009, China’sfirst near-zero-emission coal plant had won state approval.Other pilots are in the works, including one inInner Mongolia that could be the largest sequestrationproject in the world (Friedman 2009). However, it is yetunclear how much CCS projects will cost to build andoperate, what the environmental consequences might beof putting tons of CO2 into the ground, or what the ultimateimpact will be on China’s total carbon emissions.These large infrastructure investments throughoutthe domestic coal supply chain indicate that the Chinesegovernment considers coal a vital part of the country’s energyfuture. Indeed, if the Chinese government continuesto be compelled to supply the growing domestic economywith cheap energy inputs, coal appears the only viable option.The continued reliance on coal has detrimental consequencesfor global greenhouse gas emissions.5. ConclusionChina’s version of “green growth” is drastically differentfrom much of the advanced industrialized world. Thegovernment’s prioritization of energy security over carbonemissions is driven in part by China’s stage of development– it is still a developing country – and in partby the nature of its political system. China’s single-partygovernment maintains its legitimacy and political powerby improving living standards, which in turn requiressustaining high rates of economic growth, creating tens ofmillions of new jobs every year, and controlling inflation.Coal, a relatively inexpensive and domestically abundantenergy source, has been –and will continue to be—an importantenabler of China’s prosperity. The looming questionfor China is not how to reduce its consumption ofcoal but rather how to use it more efficiently and cleanly.Because of the rapid pace at which China’s overall energydemand is growing, renewables are viewed as desirablesupplements to – but not viable substitutes for—coal.The magnitude of the energy and environmental challengesfacing China is unprecedented. On the one hand,the government is attacking the country’s mounting energyproblems on multiple fronts: energy efficiency, economicrestructuring, investment in non-fossil fuels, andexpansion of transmission capacity. All of these measuresare designed to slow the growth rate of energy demandand increase the supply of energy. As a result, the growthrate of carbon emissions will also slow. To its credit, Chinaappears to be on a path that will enable it to meet itstarget of reducing the carbon intensity of its economy by40 to 45% by 2020 from 2005 levels.On the other hand, significant obstacles remain, themost serious of which are distorted incentives at the locallevel, the difficulty of retail pricing reform, and theenergy intensity of the manufacturing-driven economy.Without a solution to these issues, the improvements inenergy efficiency and carbon intensity resulting from the12th FYG’s green initiatives alone can do little to preventChina’s overall carbon emissions from growing. Rather,China’s green initiatives will only slow the pace of emissiongrowth. We calculate that even if China meets itsgoal of reducing carbon intensity by 40% to 45% and economicgrowth slows down to an average rate of 7% peryear for the next ten years, its total emissions would stillincrease 83.7% by 2020 from 2005 levels. If China meetsits carbon intensity reduction targets but grows at an averageof 10% per year, which has been its average growthrate during the past two decades, then its total emissionswould increase 142.2% by 2020 from 2005 levels. Despiteits genuine efforts to curb the energy and carbon intensityof its economy, China’s carbon emissions are unlikelyto plateau until 2030 (Zhou et al. 2011).The fate of China’s greenhouse gas emissions may restwith a yet elusive technological solution to de-carbonizecoal. There is ample opportunity for international cooperationin the advancement of emerging technologies likecarbon capture and sequestration. The European Union,for example, pledged up to €50 million (US$70 million)in mid-2009 to help China build the near-zero-emissioncoal plant mentioned earlier. Partnerships like this willbe crucial in the global effort to combat climate change.If China in collaboration with concerned members of theinternational community cannot figure out how to safelyand cheaply de-carbonize coal, then the planet may haveno choice but learn how to adapt to a warmer world.Works CitedA Anderson, Jonathan. "Solving China's Rebalancing Puzzle: Marketforces will do the trick 'naturally'." Finance and Development 44,no. 3 (2007): 32-35.Arrow, Kenneth et al. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and theenvironment." Environment and Development Economics 1, no. 1(1996): 104-110. DOI: 10.1017/S1355770X00000413.Barboza, David. "China Passes Japan as Second Largest Economy."New York Times, August 15, 2010. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/business/global/16yuan.htmlBeijing Electric Power Company. 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Chapter 7ence/earth/02copenhagen.html?_r=1.Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook, Brazil. WashingtonD.C.: CIA, 2011a. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/br.html.Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook, China. WashingtonD.C.: CIA, 2011b. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/ch.html.Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook, India. WashingtonD.C.: CIA, 2011c. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/in.html.Daily, Matt. "First Solar to build huge Chinese solar plant." Reuters,September 8, 2009. http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/09/08/usfirstsolar-idUSTRE5874XC20090908.Diao, Cui. "Shierwu meidian buju moubian, yunshu pingjing youjie[Coal and power industries seek change in the twelfth five-yearguidelines; potential solution for transport bottleneck]." ZhongguoJingji Daobao [China Economic Herald], November 6, 2010. http://www.ceh.com.cn/ceh/jryw/2010/11/6/70997.shtmlDong, Lilin. "Guangfu fengkuang quandi duojinggui guoshengjinbao zhouxiang [PV industry enclosure fervor; alarm of polycrystallinesilicon overcapacity is sounded]. " Jingji Guancha Bao[The Economic Observer], August 30, 2009. http://business.sohu.com/20090830/n266321956.shtmlEnergy Information Administration. "International Energy Annual2006." EIA database, Department of Energy, Washington D.C.,2008. http://www.eia.gov/emeu/iea/contents.html.Energy Information Administration. "U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissionsin 2009: A Retrospective Review." Review, EIA, Departmentof Energy, Washington D.C., 2010. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/environment/emissions/carbon/.Energy Information Administration. “World Shale Gas Resources: AnInitial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States.” IndependentStatistics & Analysis from EIA, Department of Energy, WashingtonD.C., 2011. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/.Fan, Sili. "1000 qianqu tegaoya gongcheng zhuanzheng [1000kV ultra-highvoltage project becomes official].” Zhongguo Jingji Shibao[China Economic Times], August 13, 2010. http://www.sgcc.com.cn/ztzl/tgyzl/mtbb/229870.shtml.Fang, Jiaxi. "Xin nengyuan qiche chanye luxiantu qiaoding [Roadmapfor new energy vehicles confirmed]." Jingji Cankao Bao[Economic Consultation], April 7, 2011. http://gd.people.com.cn/GB/123946/14334482.htmlFriedman, Lisa. "A Sea Change in China's Attitude Toward CarbonCapture." New York Times, June 22, 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/06/22/22climatewire-a-sea-change-in-chinas-attitude-toward-carbo-94519.html.General Electrics. "China Selects GE Technology Again to SupportRapid Growth in Wind Energy Sector." Press release, January 12, 2010.http://www.gepower.com/about/press/en/2010_press/011210.htm.Guo, Baogang. "Political legitimacy and China's Transition." Journalof Chinese Political Science 8, no. 1-2 (2003): 1-25.Han, Zhang. "Trees fell subway." Global Times, April 11, 2011.http://special.globaltimes.cn/2011-04/643196.html.International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2009. Paris,France: IEA, 2009. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/2009.asp.International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2010 ExecutiveSummary. Paris, France: IEA, 2010. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/WEO2010_es_english.pdf.International Energy Agency. "Share of total primary energy supplyin 2008, People's Republic of China." IEA Energy Statistics,IEA, Paris, France, 2010c. http://www.iea.org/country/n_country.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=CNLi, Junfeng, Pengfei Shi, and Hu Gao. "China Wind Power Outlook2010." report for Global Wind Energy Council, Brussels, Belgium,2010. http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=169&L=0.Liu, Yang and Hua Huang. "Jieti dianjia lunwei zhangjia fangan [Hastiered-pricing turned to a rate hike]?" Guoji Jinrong Bao [InternationalFinance News], October 26, 2010. http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/13046646.html.Kharl, Fredrich and David Roland-Holst. "Growth and structuralchange in China's energy economy." Energy 34, no. 7 (2009): 894-903.Morse, Richard K., and Gang He. "The World's Greatest Coal Arbitrage:China's Coal Import Behavior and Implications for theGlobal Coal Market." Working Paper #94, Freeman Spogli Institutefor International Studies, Stanford University, Pala Alto, CA, 2010.Accessed April 2, 2011, http://pesd.stanford.edu/publications/the_worlds_greatest_coal_arbitrage_chinas_coal_import_behavior_and_implications_for_the_global_coal_market/National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook2009. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2009. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2009/indexeh.htmNational Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook2010 Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2010. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2010/indexeh.htmNational Development and Reform Commission of China. Guojiafazhangaigewei guanyu zuohao 2007 kuashengqu meitan chanyunxuxianjie gongzuo de tongzhi [Announcement from the NDRCon management of inter-provincial coal production and transportationfor 2007]. Fagai Yunxing[2006]2867. Beijing, China: NDRC,2006. Accessed March 21, 2011, http://law.baidu.com/pages/chinalawinfo/8/26/5c4f97b003e8d4f84b592f91d315bc5f_0.htmlNational Development and Reform Commission of China. Guojiafazhangaigewei guanyu wanshan fengli fadian shangwang dianjiazhengce de tongzhi [Announcement from the NDRC on improvingpricing policies for wind power]. Fagai jiage[2009]1906. Beijing,China: NDRC, 2009. Accessed Mach 21, 2011, http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/2009tz/t20090727_292827.htm.National Development and Reform Commission of China. Zhonghuarenmingongheguoguomin jingji he shehui fazhan di shiergewunian guihua gaoyao [The Twelfth Five-Year Guidelines of Economicand Social Development in People’s Republic of China]. Beijing,China: NDRC, 2011. Accessed April 16, 2011, http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/14159537.htmlNational People's Congress of China. Zhonghuarenmingongheguokezaisheng nengyuan fa xiuzhen [Revision of RenewableEnergy Act of People’s Republic of China] . Beijing, China: NPC,2009. Accessed April 16, 2011, http://www.npc.gov.cn/huiyi/cwh/1112/2009-12/26/content_1533216.htmNi, Vincent, and Baizhen Chua. "Chinese demand for coal spurs9-day traffic jam on expressway." Business Week, August 24, 2010.http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-24/chinese-demand-Green Growth: From religion to reality 83

Chapter 7ence/earth/02copenhagen.html?_r=1.Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook, Brazil. WashingtonD.C.: CIA, 2011a. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/br.html.Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook, China. WashingtonD.C.: CIA, 2011b. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/ch.html.Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook, India. WashingtonD.C.: CIA, 2011c. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/in.html.Daily, Matt. "First Solar to build huge Chinese solar plant." Reuters,September 8, 2009. http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/09/08/usfirstsolar-idUSTRE5874XC20090908.Diao, Cui. "Shierwu meidian buju moubian, yunshu pingjing youjie[Coal and power industries seek change in the twelfth five-yearguidelines; potential solution for transport bottleneck]." ZhongguoJingji Daobao [China Economic Herald], November 6, 2010. http://www.ceh.com.cn/ceh/jryw/2010/11/6/70997.shtmlDong, Lilin. "Guangfu fengkuang quandi duojinggui guoshengjinbao zhouxiang [PV industry enclosure fervor; alarm of polycrystallinesilicon overcapacity is sounded]. " Jingji Guancha Bao[The Economic Observer], August 30, 2009. http://business.sohu.com/20090830/n266321956.shtmlEnergy Information Administration. "International Energy Annual2006." EIA database, Department of Energy, Washington D.C.,2008. http://www.eia.gov/emeu/iea/contents.html.Energy Information Administration. "U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissionsin 2009: A Retrospective Review." Review, EIA, Departmentof Energy, Washington D.C., 2010. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/environment/emissions/carbon/.Energy Information Administration. “World Shale Gas Resources: AnInitial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States.” IndependentStatistics & Analysis from EIA, Department of Energy, WashingtonD.C., 2011. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/.Fan, Sili. "1000 qianqu tegaoya gongcheng zhuanzheng [1000kV ultra-highvoltage project becomes official].” Zhongguo Jingji Shibao[China Economic Times], August 13, 2010. http://www.sgcc.com.cn/ztzl/tgyzl/mtbb/229870.shtml.Fang, Jiaxi. "Xin nengyuan qiche chanye luxiantu qiaoding [Roadmapfor new energy vehicles confirmed]." Jingji Cankao Bao[Economic Consultation], April 7, 2011. http://gd.people.com.cn/GB/123946/14334482.htmlFriedman, Lisa. "A Sea Change in China's Attitude Toward CarbonCapture." New York Times, June 22, 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/06/22/22climatewire-a-sea-change-in-chinas-attitude-toward-carbo-94519.html.General Electrics. "China Selects GE Technology Again to SupportRapid Growth in Wind Energy Sector." Press release, January 12, 2010.http://www.gepower.com/about/press/en/2010_press/011210.htm.Guo, Baogang. "Political legitimacy and China's Transition." Journalof Chinese Political Science 8, no. 1-2 (2003): 1-25.Han, Zhang. "Trees fell subway." Global Times, April 11, 2011.http://special.globaltimes.cn/2011-04/643196.html.International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2009. Paris,France: IEA, 2009. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/2009.asp.International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2010 ExecutiveSummary. Paris, France: IEA, 2010. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/WEO2010_es_english.pdf.International Energy Agency. "Share of total primary energy supplyin 2008, People's Republic of China." IEA Energy Statistics,IEA, Paris, France, 2010c. http://www.iea.org/country/n_country.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=CNLi, Junfeng, Pengfei Shi, and Hu Gao. "China Wind Power Outlook2010." report for Global Wind Energy Council, Brussels, Belgium,2010. http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=169&L=0.Liu, Yang and Hua Huang. "Jieti dianjia lunwei zhangjia fangan [Hastiered-pricing turned to a rate hike]?" Guoji Jinrong Bao [InternationalFinance News], October 26, 2010. http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/13046646.html.Kharl, Fredrich and David Roland-Holst. "Growth and structuralchange in China's energy economy." Energy 34, no. 7 (2009): 894-903.Morse, Richard K., and Gang He. "The World's Greatest Coal Arbitrage:China's Coal Import Behavior and Implications for theGlobal Coal Market." Working Paper #94, Freeman Spogli Institutefor International Studies, Stanford University, Pala Alto, CA, 2010.Accessed April 2, 2011, http://pesd.stanford.edu/publications/the_worlds_greatest_coal_arbitrage_chinas_coal_import_behavior_and_implications_for_the_global_coal_market/National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook2009. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2009. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2009/indexeh.htmNational Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook2010 Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2010. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2010/indexeh.htmNational Development and Reform Commission of China. Guojiafazhangaigewei guanyu zuohao 2007 kuashengqu meitan chanyunxuxianjie gongzuo de tongzhi [Announcement from the NDRCon management of inter-provincial coal production and transportationfor 2007]. Fagai Yunxing[2006]2867. Beijing, China: NDRC,2006. Accessed March 21, 2011, http://law.baidu.com/pages/chinalawinfo/8/26/5c4f97b003e8d4f84b592f91d315bc5f_0.htmlNational Development and Reform Commission of China. Guojiafazhangaigewei guanyu wanshan fengli fadian shangwang dianjiazhengce de tongzhi [Announcement from the NDRC on improvingpricing policies for wind power]. Fagai jiage[2009]1906. Beijing,China: NDRC, 2009. Accessed Mach 21, 2011, http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/2009tz/t20090727_292827.htm.National Development and Reform Commission of China. Zhonghuarenmingongheguoguomin jingji he shehui fazhan di shiergewunian guihua gaoyao [The Twelfth Five-Year Guidelines of Economicand Social Development in People’s Republic of China]. Beijing,China: NDRC, 2011. Accessed April 16, 2011, http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/14159537.htmlNational People's Congress of China. Zhonghuarenmingongheguokezaisheng nengyuan fa xiuzhen [Revision of RenewableEnergy Act of People’s Republic of China] . Beijing, China: NPC,2009. Accessed April 16, 2011, http://www.npc.gov.cn/huiyi/cwh/1112/2009-12/26/content_1533216.htmNi, Vincent, and Baizhen Chua. "Chinese demand for coal spurs9-day traffic jam on expressway." Business Week, August 24, 2010.http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-24/chinese-demand-Green Growth: From religion to reality 83

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