Chapter xxxAN ANALYTICAL OVERVIEWThe Green Growth Leaders Country Study© Berkeley Roundtable on the International EconomyJune 15, 2011Prepared by John Zysman and Nina Kelsey18
Chapter 21 Overview: The country casesThis set of five green growth cases (with two forthcoming)explores the variety of green growth strategies countriesand states are putting into practice: how they definesuccess; what obstacles they face; and what kinds of policyoutcomes they produce. In essence, what is the politicaland economic logic underpinning different strategiesand their success?1.1 Cases presentedThe cases presented include:Europe, including:1. An analysis of the European Union policy environment2. An analysis of the Denmark caseThe United States, including:1. An overview of the federal policy environment2. An analysis of the California state case3. An analysis of the Colorado state caseKoreaChinaBrazil2 Key lessonsSome key lessons seem to emerge from this set of cases.We propose these points for discussion:2.1 Each green growth story is uniqueThe case variation, not surprisingly, turns on two questions:First, what are the core energy problems or key objectivesthat a country seeks to solve – energy availability?Independence? Predictability or affordability of energypricing? Economic growth? Particulate pollution? Emissions?Others?Second, what is a country’s energy system endowment?In other words, what are the domestic resources itis given to work with? Is it well endowed with coal, gas,sun, wind, or some other resource or mix of resources?Consider the contrast between Denmark and China:Denmark’s core problems and objectives have to do with(1) ensuring predictable availability of energy at an acceptablelong-term cost, ideally by achieving energy independence,(2) driving economic growth, and (3) loweringemissions. Choosing to make green industry a coreof Denmark’s economy – and choosing to structure itseconomy and infrastructure to take full advantage of thisindustry – creates a unified solution to all of Denmark’sproblems.China, by contrast, needs to do the following: (1)achieve massive, near-future increases in energy availability,(2) continue growing economically at a rapid rate,and (3) very much secondarily, deal with a growing particulateemissions problem. Moreover, it is well-endowedwith coal, a cheap-but-dirty energy source. Given thecurrent state of technology, these objectives mandateboth green technology and brown growth. Denmark’ssolution would not solve China’s problems.2.2 But there are overarching patterns in how greengrowth stories play outWe see two different patterns by which green growthpolicy develops:1) Evolution: in this pattern, green growth policy is theresult of a slow evolution. Early energy usage and/or pollution challenges prompt initial policy movesthat begin to decouple energy growth from economicgrowth (green-compatible growth). These early policiesbuild comfort and create constituencies for themselves.Policymakers can then proceed to more aggressiveattempts to eliminate fossil fuel usage and reorienttoward green industry as a economic power (greendrivengrowth). In effect, each phase creates the politicalwill for the next phase, and progress toward moreaggressive green policy thus becoming self-sustaining.In both the California and Denmark cases, this evolutionaryprocess begins with an energy crisis, perhapsbecause such a crisis provides the impetus to overrideinitial obstacles.2) Political realignment: in this pattern, seen in Coloradoand Korea, aggressive policy for green-driven growthcan spring forth abruptly rather than proceeding evolutionarilyfrom more humble beginnings. These kinds ofrapid policy developments are the result of political willand leadership (such as those exhibited by the Lee Myung-bakadministration in Korea or a set of Democraticpolicymakers in Colorado) combined with an environmentin which a set of key interests align to support thisleadership (as, for instance, the electoral movement inColorado found support both in urban liberal populationsand in rural conservative populations)."In general, an alliance between policymakers andstrategic parts of industry seems to be a critical part ofthe aggregation of interests necessary to achieve greengrowth,"2.3 Whether and how policy-makers ally with industryis criticalIn general, an alliance between policymakers and strategicparts of industry seems to be a critical part of the aggregationof interests necessary to achieve green growth,whether it is the result of an evolutionary process or partof a rapid political realignment. There are two probablereasons for this. First, opposition from industry may beparticularly effective at blocking action, in which case analliance with industry is necessary to defuse or disruptsuch opposition. Second, when the goal is economic (asgreen growth is) buy-in from strategic partners in industryis necessary to make the goal credible and attainable.Green Growth: From religion to reality 19
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TAKE LEAD, OCTOBER 12-13 TH ,2011 C
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