Raed Sherif â Concentrated Photovoltaic for Large Scale Solar ...
Raed Sherif â Concentrated Photovoltaic for Large Scale Solar ...
Raed Sherif â Concentrated Photovoltaic for Large Scale Solar ...
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<strong>Concentrated</strong> <strong>Photovoltaic</strong><strong>for</strong> <strong>Large</strong> <strong>Scale</strong> <strong>Solar</strong><strong>Raed</strong> <strong>Sherif</strong>, Ph.D.(rsherif@amonix.com)1 +966 536 155 082
HistoryGo back to 1980 and ask: why was solar PV expensive back then?To a first degree, the semiconductor was expensive & inefficientSo you needed plenty of expensive semiconductor area per MWTwo schools of thought:‣ Reduce cost of semiconductor (and try to make it moreefficient)‣ Use as little semiconductor as possible – Replaceexpensive semiconductor with inexpensive optics
CPV is not a new concept• 350kW CPV systems in Saudi Arabia’s <strong>Solar</strong> Village from early 1980’s• 33X on mono-crystalline Si cells 14% efficiency
Module Price ($/W) ($2002)PV Historic Path Toward Cost Reduction100Historical101980$21.83/W1985$11.20/W1990$6.07/W 1995$4.90/ W 2000$3.89/W 2005Projected 2004!$2.70/W 2010$1.82/W 2013$1.44/W11 10 100 1000 10000 100000Cumulative Production (MW)• Niche applications in remote, off-grid markets• Then, through FIT and incentive programs, gained access to grid-connectedmarkets• Through efficient manufacturing and economies of scale, PV module pricestoday are actually much lower than what was projected back in 2004
Thought“If you want to find a new idea, read an oldbook!” - Bobby Fischer
A New, Disruptive TechnologyHigh efficiency, super expensive “multi-junction” solar cells made their way intothe domain of solar energy because of space application, building on the “dualjunction”technology that was developed by the DOEPictures courtesy of SpectrolabThe new, high-efficiency cells put a new life into CPV
INTENSITY (ARB UNITS)Drawing Not To <strong>Scale</strong>Multijunction PVSunlight1.0TOP CELLA/R*ContactA/R*0.80.60.40.2MIDDLE CELLGaInP 2 GaInAs Ge00.25 0.45 0.65 0.85 1.05 1.25 1.45 1.65 1.85WAVELENGTH (Microns)Picture courtesy of SpectrolabBOTTOM CELLTop Cell: GaInP 2Tunnel JunctionMiddle Cell: GaInAsTunnel JunctionBottom Cell: GeGe SubstrateContact*A/R: Anti-Reflective Coating• State of the art is the 3J cell• Typical 3J cell contains 20 layers or more• Divides the solar spectrum (l < 1.750 mm) to maximize efficiency
PV Technologies World-Record Efficiencieshttp://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/efficiency_chart.jpgContinuous advances in world-record MJ cell efficiency, almost 1% absoluteefficiency increase per year- AND plenty of headroom to grow!
CPV <strong>Solar</strong> Cell Products Introduced to the MarketFrom the Leading MJ Cell Provider2007C1MJ36.5%2008C2MJ37.5%2009C3MJ38.5%2010C3MJ+39.2%2011C4MJ40.0%QualificationcompletedJune 2007QualificationcompletedNov 2008QualificationcompletedAugust 2009QualificationcompletedOctober 2010QualificationcompletedFebruary 2011Boeing-Spectrolab showed 1% improvement in commercial cell efficiency overthe last 5 years
Today- Many Chip Makers Have Entered the Market• 2007– Boeing-Spectrolab– Emcore– Azur SpaceEstablished companies with heritage in SpaceMJ cells and manufacturing infrastructure• 2010 new players:– Cyrium– <strong>Solar</strong> Junction– Spire– JDSU– Far East companiesNew players, some with different paths toreach higher efficiencies
CPV Projected to be Lowest Cost in high DNI RegionsCPV has the lowest energy production costsSource:
Impact of Cell Efficiency on LCOE<strong>Solar</strong> Junction RoadmapConservative cell efficiency Roadmap
Impact of Cell Efficiency & Prices on Project Cost
Amonix - World Leader in CPV TechnologyAmonix Installations Make Up 82% of Global CPV CapacityAmonix <strong>Large</strong>st Utility <strong>Scale</strong> ProjectsCogentrix Alamosa USA 40.3 MWGuascor Foton Navarra Spain 10.2 MWNextEra Hatch USA 6.6 MWAmonix UASTP USA 2.6 MWGuascor Foton Murcia Spain 2.6 MWSoitec <strong>Large</strong>st ProjectsChevron Questa USA 1.2 MWISFOC Puertollano Spain 0.7 MWRians France 0.6 MWHazelmare South Africa 0.5 MWThemis France 0.2 MWSoitec, 3.6 MW,4%Global Cumulative CPV Installations by 2012 (MW DC)SolFocus, 4.8MW, 6%Other, 7.2 MW,8%SolFocus <strong>Large</strong>st ProjectsSol Orchard Nichols Farm USA 1.2 MWArizona Western College USA 1.0 MWVictor Valley College USA 1.0 MWISFOC Puertollano Spain 0.5 MWCoachella Water USA 0.4 MWOther <strong>Large</strong>st ProjectsGreenvolts (AWC) USA 1.0 MWSolg3 Ramon Escriche Spain 0.8 MWSuntrix Golmud China 0.7 MWBridgewater Australia 0.6 MWSkyline <strong>Solar</strong> Mexico 0.5 MWAmonix, 69.7MW, 82%Amonix Soitec SolFocus Other
Amonix Utility <strong>Scale</strong> Projects in 201140.3 MW Alamosa, CO• Equipment Sale to Cogentrix,• Tax Equity Underwritten by Goldman Sachs• $90.6mm Loan• PPA with Xcel Energy• Installation by Mortenson Construction6.6 MW Hatch, NM• Equipment Sale to NextEra• Balance Sheet Commitment• PPA with El Paso Electric• Installation by Blattner Energy2.6 MW Tucson, AZ• Amonix Self-Developed / Financed• Sponsored by Tucson Electric with PPA• Installation by Granite Construction
Number of Unit years1/1/20093/1/20095/1/20097/1/20099/1/200911/1/20091/1/20103/1/20105/1/20107/1/20109/1/201011/1/20101/1/20113/1/20115/1/20117/1/20119/1/201111/1/20111/1/20123/1/20125/1/20127/1/2012Field History500450400350300250200Amonix Installed System Unit Years1 unit-year is equivalent to 1 systembeing operational <strong>for</strong> 365 days. 1unit year can be made up of 365systems operating <strong>for</strong> one day or asingle unit operating <strong>for</strong> a year.Today450 unit-years of datawill be available by6/201215010050100 Unit YearThreshold0Date
Overview of Major 7700 ComponentsSchematic of Manufacturing/Supply Chain of Major System componentsFlextronics Assembled, sub-components procured by Flextronics3 rd Party Manufactured, procured by Amonix <strong>for</strong> Flextronics assembly3 rd Party Manufactured, procured by Amonix, drop-shipped to siteMegaModule 1Torque TubeDC Junction BoxPedestalHydraulicsDrive Head OutriggersInverterACI BoxService Cage 2
Highest <strong>Solar</strong> System Conversion EfficiencyStandard silicon cells use a single cell and do not concentratePanels absorb rays coming fromdifferent angles, but do notconvert efficiently and miss thesun’s energy potentialMultijunction cells enable multiple layers of energy conversionto increase efficiencySunlightFresnel lensSystems are aligneddirectly to the sun toensure focus and themost efficient conversionof energyComparison of cell, module, and system efficiency of various solar technologies
CPV Advantage in Per<strong>for</strong>mance• Dual-axis tracking provides higher kWh/kWp, and higher capacityfactor- almost 60% higher than stationary flat plate Si module1001901 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1111 1 111 1 1801 1 J J J1JJ J J JJ JJ J J J J J J J J 1701JJH H H H HHHHHH60HH1HH50J H HHJH40HH JJ30HH1 Amonix = 8.8 kWh/kWH20HJ Single axis = 7.2 kWh/kWHHJ10JHH Fixed Flat Plate = 5.0 kWh/kWJJH1J1J1J1JH0 H H H H16 8 10 12 14 16 18Local time (h)Picture courtesy of Amonix• For a 1 MW plant, CPV system would produce > 8 GWh over a 25 yearlife more than a thin film panel
Generation (MW)Effect of Temperature on System Per<strong>for</strong>manceLower Temperature Coefficient Provides a Distinct Advantage in Hot ClimatesHeatCoefficient(% / o C)Amonix -0.1610.2010.009.809.60Thin Film -0.25c-Si(19.3%)c-Si(14.4%)-0.38-0.45Source: NREL, <strong>Solar</strong> RadiationData Manual <strong>for</strong> Flat-Plate andConcentrating Collectors9.409.209.008.808.6025 30 35 40 45 50Temperature ( o C)Amonix c-Si (19.3%) c-Si (14.4%) Thin FilmA key factor in Saudi Arabia
Amonix – Proven Per<strong>for</strong>manceAmonix’s Financeability Driven by Strong Product OfferingProven Field History• Per<strong>for</strong>mance is backed by real-world, field-collected dataIndependent Engineers• Favorable opinions from independent engineers and appraisersincluding Black & Veatch and Garrad HassanStrong Customer Base• Projects with Cogentrix, SCE & SNWAWarranty Support• Strong warranty supported by pass-through OEM warrantiesguarantee results
Development of Local Manufacturing Hub in MENA
Low CPV Manufacturing Capitalization CostCapEx Comparison <strong>for</strong> PV Technologies ($B/GW)CPVWafer and Cell manufacturing $0.26Balance of System manufacturing $0.33Total ($B/GW) $0.59α-Si$1.62Single Crystal Si$1.49Less than half the CapEx of other PV technologies
Total Job Creation: 100 MW DC-STC, 8700 SystemsA 100 MW Amonix facility would create 400-450 new jobs *Total Incremental Jobs CreatedMegaModule Manufacturing - DL 240DC Junction Box Manufacturing - DL 3Service Module Manufacturing - DL 20MegaModule, Service Module Manufacturing - IDL 70O&M 73rd Party Installation 80Total Incremental Jobs Created 420* Does not consider third party supply chain jobs created in country
Summary & ConclusionsAmonix CPV Value Proposition• Amonix CPV is proven technology• Ideal <strong>for</strong> many parts with Saudi:– High DNI– Low water usage– Low temperature degradation– Local manufacturing• Clear path to cost reduction through efficiency improvement, andeconomies of scale• Real Local manufacturing opportunities
Thank you!SunriseMoonlight
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