A Closer Examination of the HIV/Fertility Linkage ... - Measure DHS
A Closer Examination of the HIV/Fertility Linkage ... - Measure DHS
A Closer Examination of the HIV/Fertility Linkage ... - Measure DHS
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ABSTRACTRecent research on African countries suggests <strong>the</strong>ir fertility transitions are slowing or reversing.Authors have suggested that this trend change may relate to widespread <strong>HIV</strong>/AIDS, butspeculation abounds as to how <strong>the</strong> disease interacts with fertility. Different behavioral andmedical mechanisms can lead to positive or negative correlations between <strong>HIV</strong> and fertility, and<strong>the</strong>se correlations can be opposite on <strong>the</strong> individual and aggregate levels. This article provides asynopsis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mechanisms relating <strong>HIV</strong> to fertility, attempting to describe <strong>the</strong>ir relativeimportance in affecting larger fertility trends. We discuss what outcome measures would beimpacted by <strong>the</strong> different mechanisms, and suggest methods on how to study whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>HIV</strong> playsa significant role in fertility trends. Case studies <strong>of</strong> several variables from three countries(Uganda, Burkina Faso, and Zimbabwe) show that fertility declines appear to stall during <strong>the</strong>height <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> epidemics in <strong>the</strong>se countries, and effects are larger depending on extremity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>epidemic. Indicators <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r measures <strong>of</strong> fertility behavior suggest that women are attemptingto avoid <strong>HIV</strong> while maintaining high fertility. While <strong>the</strong>se results show suggestive evidence <strong>of</strong>fertility behavior changes in relation to <strong>the</strong> <strong>HIV</strong> epidemic, more rigorous empirical analyses arenecessary to control for conditional effects.