A Closer Examination of the HIV/Fertility Linkage ... - Measure DHS

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and urban women. Birth spacing is increasing. On the other hand, there are indicators that couldsuggest a stall in the fertility transition. Ideal number of children and the percentage marriedboth slow their declines. Contraceptive use falls or remains constant for the 15-19 age group.Urban modern method use falls. Condom use falls from low to even lower levels.Overall, these different trends suggest that there are some behavioral changescontributing to the stall in the fertility transition. Taken together, the trends suggest that womenare attempting to avoid HIV (by having less sex, increasing age at first intercourse), but still aredeciding to have many children, as evidenced by stalling declines in stated ideal number ofchildren and the TFR. The heightened contraceptive use may be related to birth spacing ratherthan limiting births.22
Uganda1. Trends in HIV prevalence and fertility ratesUganda’s epidemic has shown a different trend than Zimbabwe’s and has a different course.Figure 9 shows the estimated progression of the epidemic in the country, with HIV prevalencefor women reaching 16% at its peak. As in Zimbabwe, the decline in the TFR apparently slowswith the leveling off of the AIDS epidemic. Uganda’s very high TFR of 8.1 in 1988/1989 fallsto 7.1 by 1995, but then only drops to 6.9 by 2006.18Figure 9: Uganda: Estimated HIV prevalence rates for all aged 15-49, women aged 15-49, andall aged 15-24, 1982-2006, with TFRs at dates of DHS surveys1614All 15-49Female 15-49All 15-241995 DHS:TFR = 7.1Prevalence Rate121081988/1989 DHS:TFR = 8.12000/2001 DHS:TFR = 7.02006 DHS:TFR = 6.9642023
Page 2 and 3: The DHS Working Papers series is an
Page 4 and 5: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWe have benefited f
Page 7 and 8: INTRODUCTIONRecent research has sug
Page 9 and 10: Figure 1: Fertility behavior respon
Page 11 and 12: worry about passing the virus to an
Page 13 and 14: Changes in fertility outcomes: Whet
Page 15 and 16: of the increased likelihood of pass
Page 17 and 18: 12 percent. Reductions in fertility
Page 19 and 20: Actions to put fertility desires in
Page 21 and 22: Zimbabwe1. Trends in HIV prevalence
Page 23 and 24: Figure 3: Trend in ideal number of
Page 25 and 26: Figure 5: Trends in sexual activity
Page 27: Finally, to understand whether wome
Page 31 and 32: 3. Trends in fertility action: mari
Page 33 and 34: Modern contraceptive use is growing
Page 35 and 36: Figure 15: Trends in number of mont
Page 37 and 38: 2. Trends in fertility desiresWomen
Page 39 and 40: Figure 19: Trends in sexual activit
Page 41 and 42: 4. Summary for Burkina FasoIn many
Page 43 and 44: CONCLUSIONSThis paper has investiga
Page 45 and 46: REFERENCESCasterline EL. 2003. Fert

A Closer Examination of the HIV/Fertility Linkage ... - Measure DHS

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