A Closer Examination of the HIV/Fertility Linkage ... - Measure DHS

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Figure 2: Zimbabwe: Estimated HIV prevalence rates for all people aged 15-49, women aged15-49, and all people aged 15-24, 1982-2006, with TFRs at dates of DHS surveys3530All 15-49All 15-24Female 15-491994 DHS:TFR = 4.61999 DHS:TFR = 3.82005/2006 DHS:TFR = 4.025Prevalence Rate2015101988/1989 DHS:TFR = 5.1502. Trends in fertility desiresThe first variable to examine in order to discern whether HIV had some impact on fertility inZimbabwe is the number of desired children. The stated ideal number of children that womencite in the DHS surveys for Zimbabwe is declining for all ages between 1988 and 2006 (Figure3). As is evident, the ideal number of children increases with respondents’ age, suggesting thatwomen adjust their ideal number depending on how many children they already have. Thedecline between 1999 and 2005/2006 appears smaller than the prior declines. The overallaverage falls from 4.9 children in 1988/1989 to 3.9 in 1999, but then only drops to 3.8 in2005/2006. This suggests that the decline in the number of children women say that they wouldlike is slowing, concurrent with the time that HIV remains constant at a high level in the country.16
Figure 3: Trend in ideal number of children, by age group, Zimbabwe1988-20067.06.56.01988/1989199419992005/2006Ideal Number of Children5.55.04.54.03.53.015-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49Age Group3. Trends in fertility action: marital status, sexual activity, contraceptive use, and birth spacingTo understand whether women are changing their fertility practices, we examine severalmeasures. The percentage of women who are married can provide an indication of reproductiveactivity and availability of sexual partners. Figure 4 shows trends in the percentage of womenmarried, by age group. These measures drop over time and then remain fairly constant between1999 and 2005/2006. Between 1991 and 1994, the overall percentage of women age 15-49married drops from 61% to 56%, but then remains constant at 56% until 2005/2006. This couldreflect changes in reproductive behavior, or it could reflect something else, like a changing agestructure of the population, reduction in possible marriage partners (possibly due to mortalityfrom the epidemic), or avoidance of remarriage.17
Page 2 and 3: The DHS Working Papers series is an
Page 4 and 5: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWe have benefited f
Page 7 and 8: INTRODUCTIONRecent research has sug
Page 9 and 10: Figure 1: Fertility behavior respon
Page 11 and 12: worry about passing the virus to an
Page 13 and 14: Changes in fertility outcomes: Whet
Page 15 and 16: of the increased likelihood of pass
Page 17 and 18: 12 percent. Reductions in fertility
Page 19 and 20: Actions to put fertility desires in
Page 21: Zimbabwe1. Trends in HIV prevalence
Page 25 and 26: Figure 5: Trends in sexual activity
Page 27 and 28: Finally, to understand whether wome
Page 29 and 30: Uganda1. Trends in HIV prevalence a
Page 31 and 32: 3. Trends in fertility action: mari
Page 33 and 34: Modern contraceptive use is growing
Page 35 and 36: Figure 15: Trends in number of mont
Page 37 and 38: 2. Trends in fertility desiresWomen
Page 39 and 40: Figure 19: Trends in sexual activit
Page 41 and 42: 4. Summary for Burkina FasoIn many
Page 43 and 44: CONCLUSIONSThis paper has investiga
Page 45 and 46: REFERENCESCasterline EL. 2003. Fert

A Closer Examination of the HIV/Fertility Linkage ... - Measure DHS

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