A Closer Examination of the HIV/Fertility Linkage ... - Measure DHS

Figure 2: Zimbabwe: Estimated HIV prevalence rates for all people aged 15-49, women aged15-49, and all people aged 15-24, 1982-2006, with TFRs at dates of DHS surveys3530All 15-49All 15-24Female 15-491994 DHS:TFR = 4.61999 DHS:TFR = 3.82005/2006 DHS:TFR = 4.025Prevalence Rate2015101988/1989 DHS:TFR = 5.1502. Trends in fertility desiresThe first variable to examine in order to discern whether HIV had some impact on fertility inZimbabwe is the number of desired children. The stated ideal number of children that womencite in the DHS surveys for Zimbabwe is declining for all ages between 1988 and 2006 (Figure3). As is evident, the ideal number of children increases with respondents’ age, suggesting thatwomen adjust their ideal number depending on how many children they already have. Thedecline between 1999 and 2005/2006 appears smaller than the prior declines. The overallaverage falls from 4.9 children in 1988/1989 to 3.9 in 1999, but then only drops to 3.8 in2005/2006. This suggests that the decline in the number of children women say that they wouldlike is slowing, concurrent with the time that HIV remains constant at a high level in the country.16