A Closer Examination of the HIV/Fertility Linkage ... - Measure DHS

particularly in the presence of shifting samples. Discerning conflicting trends at the individualand aggregate levels would therefore require understanding of both sample changes andindividual effects.Examination of changes in the TFR and ASFRs will not provide an indication of whetherthe change is due to a change in the sample or to a behavioral change in those still living.Without knowledge of the medical characteristics of HIV-positive women, it would be difficultto understand what aspect of any change in fertility is due to behavioral versus biological factors.The only method of estimating the biological factors would be in a scenario in which behavior isconstant. It would therefore be necessary first to identify whether behavioral changes areoccurring. If no behavior change is evident, then any change in fertility (net of trendsattributable to other proximate determinants of fertility) could be attributed to biologicalmechanisms.Discerning changes in behavior would require examining variables related to fertilitydesires and actions at different stages of the AIDS epidemic in a country. The Demographic andHealth Surveys (DHS) provide large, high-quality repeated cross-sections of the population thatare comparable across countries and time. Perception of a heightened threat of mortality, or ofany threat from HIV, could be documented using the DHS survey questions that ask aboutknowledge of HIV or about deaths from HIV. Changes in desires for children could beestimated via the DHS questions about reproductive intentions.Availability of methods to alter fertility could come from DHS data as well. The use ofcontraception provides a measure of availability, but low use may occur in an environment ofready availability. It would therefore be necessary to examine not only use but knowledge ofcontraceptive methods, as well as unmet need for family planning.12