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to be paid, by either local power holders (often involved in the drug trade) orinternational Islamic sources.The government and donors should proactively prevent the growth of religiouslyoriented opposition. Mosque management and the Council of Ulama need reform.Dropping mullahs from the payroll simply for lack of resources, or building mosques toshow that the United States is not anti-Islamic (as some PRTs have done) without astrategy or policy is dangerous. The social capital that village mosques embody should bemobilized on behalf of the reconstruction of the country and the strengthening of itsconstitutional institutions.Recommendation:• The Afghan government should bring the mosque-based traditional villageadministration and dispute settlement procedures gradually into the ambit of stateinstitutions. Donors should support this sensitive aspect of building an Islamicstate.30
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTBasic indicators of human welfare place Afghans among a handful of the world’s mosthungry, destitute, illiterate, and short-lived people. The country ranks approximately 173out of 178 countries in the basic index of human development, effectively putting it in atie for last place with a few African countries. 22 Afghan women face the highest rates ofilliteracy and the lowest standards of health in the world. Afghanistan has the youngestpopulation in the world (an estimated 57 percent under eighteen years old) with fewemployment prospects in the offing. 23The livelihoods of the people of this impoverished, devastated country are moredependent on illegal narcotics than any other country in the world. According toestimates by the UN and IMF, the total export value of opiates produced in Afghanistanin 2005–2006 equaled about 38 percent of nondrug GDP, down from 47 percent theprevious year due to growth of the nondrug economy. Much of the trafficking profits donot enter the Afghan economy, but even if only one-third of trafficking income stayed inthe country, the direct contribution to the domestic economy would amount to 15 percentof the total, with more attributable to the multiplier effect of drug-financed spending. TheUN estimates that in recent years nearly 80 percent of the income from narcotics went notto farmers but to traffickers and heroin processors, some of whose profits corrupt thegovernment and support armed groups. 24 The distribution of the proceeds of narcoticstrafficking, not elections, largely determines who wields power in much of Afghanistan.22 Along with Somalia, Afghanistan is one of two countries in the world unable to produce accurate enoughdata to be ranked in UN Development Programme’s annual Human Development Report. Using availabledata, however, Afghanistan’s National Human Development Report 2004 estimated that Afghanistan wouldhave ranked 173 out of 178, barely ahead of the African states of Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone,and Niger. UNDP, Afghanistan: National Human Development Report 2004, http://hdr.undp.org/docs/reports/national/AFG_Afghanistan/afghanistan_2004_en.pdf.23 For population statistics on Afghanistan see Afghanistan’s Millennium Development Goal report:http://www.ands.gov.af/src/src/MDGs_Reps/MDGR%202005.pdf.24 UN Office on Drugs and Crime and Government of Afghanistan Counter Narcotics Directorate,Afghanistan: Opium Survey 2005, p. 9, http://www.unodc.org/pdf/afg/afg_survey_2005_exsum.pdf.31
Page 1 and 2: THE CENTER FOR PREVENTIVE ACTIONAfg
Page 3: CONTENTSForewordvAcknowledgmentsvii
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGMENTSI would like to than
Page 9: Source: Map graphic provided by map
Page 13 and 14: INTRODUCTION:THE AFGHANISTAN COMPAC
Page 15 and 16: • An exchange rate inflated by ai
Page 17 and 18: SECURITYThere are two international
Page 19 and 20: expand coverage by PRTs, help disba
Page 21 and 22: Yet more than four years after the
Page 23 and 24: presidential visit to the region, w
Page 25 and 26: without active engagement and assis
Page 27 and 28: enforcement services. The inhabitan
Page 29 and 30: manage its water resources, connect
Page 31 and 32: efforts.” 18 In response to Afgha
Page 33 and 34: Using pressure to hold such leaders
Page 35 and 36: • The central police force also m
Page 37 and 38: Afghans also have shown that they w
Page 39 and 40: presence, as it has done through re
Page 41: development budgets. Currently, the
Page 45 and 46: • Counternarcotics development st
Page 47 and 48: military operations of the Coalitio
Page 49 and 50: Figure 3: U.S. Assistance to Afghan
Page 51 and 52: This will require both national bud
Page 53 and 54: ABOUT THE AUTHORBarnett R. Rubin is
Page 55 and 56: CENTER FOR PREVENTIVE ACTION ADVISO

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