Simon Rogers - Business Review Webinars

Integrated production planning and schedulingin the oil, gas and petrochemicals industriesSimon RogersDirector Oil & GasQuintiq© 2013 Quintiq Holding B.V. All rights reserved. Quintiq is a registered mark of Quintiq Holding B.V.1

Speaker profileSimon RogersDirector of Oil & GasQuintiqA chemical engineer with 25 years of experience in planning,scheduling and optimization in the oil, gas and petrochemicalsindustries.2

AgendaChallenges• Horizontal • Industryintegration• Supply chain planning• Vertical integration• Production Planning• KPIs• Production SchedulingA New Approach• Single application• 100% Fit• Interactive & collaborative• Upstream Planning• Downstream PlanningSummary• Improvements required• Planning system of record• Interactive optimization3

Better planning needed to address industry challengesReputationBrandHealthMarket volatilityNOCsReliabilityWaterLargerBRICsCapitalShrinking workforcePolitical RiskCollaborationLNGBiofuelsSafetyAdvantagedfeedstockIntegratedUncertaintyEmissionsPoorer crudeComplexDieselizationClean fuelsTradingUnconventionalConsolidationShale gasCAFEMega Projects4

Planning KPIs need to cover all strategic issuesRiskFinancialSustainability5

Planning needs to address the entire value chainHorizontalplanning —integratingacrossthe oil & gassupply chainWithout end-to-end visibility, it is impossible to deduce the impact of planning decisions acrossthe entire value chain6

Planning needs to address all time horizonsSignificant gaps between each planning level7

Poll 1At which planning level is Excel used the most?A. Production schedulingB. Production planningC. Logistics schedulingD. Supply chain planning8

Point solutions are used and Excel is used extensivelyProduction Processing Inventory TransportWorkforceSupplyPlanningAnnual DeliveryProgramSales & Operations PlanSupply & Distribution PlanWorkforceDemand ForecastTacticalPlanning90-dayPlanLPProduction PlanMIPDistribution PlanRoster PlanningOperationalSchedulingVessel ScheduleProductionSchedulePrimary LogisticsScheduleVROTruck RoutingTask Scheduling/Disrupt9

Poll 2To what extent are your production planning and schedulingintegrated?A. Limited data is exchangedB. The same underlying process models are usedC. Separate but fully integrated applicationsD. The same application is used10

Production planning LPs do not include all key constraints• Assume constant operation• Logistic constraints not adequately considered• Limited feedback from scheduling• Irregular model updates• Limited interaction• Limited collaboration• Single objective functionLP with recursion11

Poll 3To what extent is your production schedule optimized?A. It is not optimizedB. There is local optimization of a single time periodC. There is local optimization across the entire time horizonD. There is global optimization across the entire time horizon12

Production scheduling is not optimized• Simplistic models• Local optimization• Limited automation• Limited input from planning• Limited operational feedback• Limited collaboration• Difficult to include business rules• Limited integration with supply chain schedule• Limited KPIsExcel orsimulation based13

A new approach“Solve all planning puzzles in thehydrocarbon industries through asingle integrated solution”with a healthy disregardfor the impossible14

100% fit and interactive optimization are required1Business model& Business logic2Visualization& interaction3World-classoptimization• Each company is unique• Having a model that is 100%-fit is essential• Covers all planning levels inappropriate detail• Individual visualization isessential to support the usersin making informed decisions• Interaction must be direct,fast and intuitive• Real-time alerts to all users• Combination of algorithmsfrom the Quintiq OptimizationSuite• Takes into account allcircumstances• The planner defines criteriaand makes the decisions,Quintiq generates proposals15

A highly configurable and maintainable solution is required16

The goal is a “supply chain planning system of record”DemandPlannerStrategicPlannerSupply & DistributionPlannerERPPlanned NominationsScheduled NominationsLogisticsSchedulerCrude ReceiptsProduct ShipmentsProductionOptimizerProductionPlanProductionScheduleNominationsScheduled NominationsPROCESSAUTOMATIONProd. FeedbackInventoryProduction Schedule17

Upstream planning system of recordWellOptimizationTrainOptimizationInventoryManagementProductShipmentStrategicPlanningLong-term Production & Investment PlanningHorizonAnnualPlanningAnnual Delivery PlanningHorizonShort–termPlanningProductionOptimizationFleetOptimizationHorizon18

Interactive production optimization - UpstreamINVESTMENTPLAN• Demand forecast• Price forecast• Maintenance plan• Annual contract quantities• Annual deliveries• Inventory forecast• Annual production forecast• Planning KPIsPRODUCTIONOPTIMIZATION• Well production rates• Train flowrates• Train operating modes• Vessel schedules• Jetty assignmentsPRODUCTON &SHIPPINGMANAGEMENT• Opening inventory• Vessel loadings• Vessel location• Product rates19

Downstream planning system of recordCrudeReceiptInventoryManagementUnitOptimizationProductBlendingProductShipmentSupplyPlanningValue Chain OptimizationHorizonProductionPlanningProduction OptimizationHorizonProductionSchedulingHorizonFeedstock Unit ProductScheduling Scheduling Scheduling20

Interactive production optimization - DownstreamSUPPLY &DISTRIBUTION• Feedstock nominations• Product nominations• Maintenance plan• Price forecast• Nomination adjustments• Inventory forecast• Production forecast• Planning KPIsPRODUCTIONOPTIMIZATION• Feedstock receipts• Feed mix & rate• Operating parameters• Product blend recipes• Product shipments• Tank assignmentsPROCESS CONTROL• Opening inventory• Material movements• Product qualities• Product rates21

A highly configurable and intuitive user interface is requiredListCLIENTColumns for attributes, imagesand charts, menus to sort, filter,add FEATURESsubtotalsDialog & Basic ComponentsLabel, Edit, Button, Checkbox,DateTimeSelector, Dropdown,etc.Map SupportStandard support for coordinatesystems, map tiling, map languagesand navigation controlGantt chartRows with nodes in time:machines & tasks, people andshifts, etc.Custom DrawFree format drawingChartLine/bar chart, stacked andthresholds22

Flexible modeling, propagation and optimization are requiredPropagatorSERVERCalculate consequencesefficientlyFEATURESRLogic LanguageHigh-level language for businessrulesKnowledge BaseTable lookup using wildcardmatching. KB Editor withversioning and validation rulesRRARFFSIMPLEFR A COMPLEX AModeling ConstructsVarious components withbuilt-in logicGraphCalendarsAvailable capacity duringtime intervals or calendarrulesOptimization AlgorithmsMathematical programming,path optimization, graphalgorithms, constraintprogrammingNodeEdge23

Are your production planning and scheduling fit for purpose?• Do you have a supply chain planning system of record?• Do you have a fully integrated production plan and schedule?• Do your production plans respect all relevant constraints and rules?• Is your planning system graphical, interactive and collaborative?• Is your production schedule optimized?• Do you optimize all relevant KPIs?A single application for production planning and schedulingwith a healthy disregard for the impossible…24

SummaryExisting applications do not adequately address the challengesfacing the industryA “supply chain planning system of record” is requiredInteractive production optimization is required25

Thank you for your attentionQuintiq’s Oil & Gas team:Simon RogersDirectorOil & GasLeonie KingmaBusiness Development ExecutiveOil & GasIan TootellSenior Account ExecutiveOil & Gassimon.rogers@quintiq.com+44 78 02 202 073leonie.kingma@quintiq.com+31 6 52 77 21 50ian.tootell@quintiq.com+49 17 27 33 63 24“Solve all planning puzzles in the hydrocarbonindustries through a single integrated solution”with a healthy disregard for the impossible26