Recession Rewards for CMP Consumables - Avsusergroups.org
Recession Rewards for CMP Consumables - Avsusergroups.org
Recession Rewards for CMP Consumables - Avsusergroups.org
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<strong>Recession</strong> <strong>Rewards</strong> <strong>for</strong><strong>CMP</strong> <strong>Consumables</strong>Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.Techcet Group LLCMay 18, 2011Techcet Group, LLCMFury@Techcet.comwww.techcet.com1
OutlineThe WindowThe ResultsMagic TrianglesScratch That ItchFlipperThe New, In WithThe End© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 2
The WindowWafer Starts (Millions)18016014012010080604020Window ofOpportunityAnnual Wafer Starts (200mm equivalent)Logic ≤ 32nmMemory ≤ 32nmLogic 45nmMemory 45nmLogic 65nmMemory 65nmLogic 90nmMemory 90nmLogic 130nmMemory 130nmLogic 150nmMemory 150nmLogic 180nmMemory 180nm02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016>180nmSource: Techcet Group, April 2011© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 3
The Window Fabs in a Downturn Clean, train, maintain Develop new ways to reduce cost Evaluate new products & methods Cost reduction impacts incumbents Evaluation time benefits insurgents Bonus motivation: customerdissatisfaction with current supplier© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 4
Magic TrianglesSlurryUnexpectedExceptionalPer<strong>for</strong>mancePadConditioner© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 5
Magic Triangles Why now? Years of talk about synergy between pad andslurry development produced nothing Crazy tight specs made us look more closely Systematic engineering work Designed experiments New products available <strong>for</strong> evaluation Fab tool time available Fab engineer work product, no R&D transfer© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 6
Magic Triangles Process characteristics Less aggressive pad conditioning Highly reproducible pad roughness Tight slurry PSD Resulting observations Sharp reduction in surface scratches Dishing meets aggressive specs Exceptional removal rate stability Lower CoO (pad life, conditioner life)© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 7
Magic Triangles Specific examples: CONFIDENTIAL Patriot Act does not apply Enhanced interrogation techniques off limitsSlurry-boarding on hold Magic triangle citations Cabot (pads) Fujimi Hitachi innoPad Intel M<strong>org</strong>an© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 8
Scratch That Itch Magic triangles will contribute to success Critical scratch length
F l i p p e r Old way Conditioner wears out, throw it away New way Conditioner wears out, turn it over Saint-Gobain introduces FlipperAbrasive on both sidesReported CoO benefits 2.0x-2.5x© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 10
In With the NewSource: P. Feeney, Solid State Technology, November 2010© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 11
In With the New Number of unique new <strong>CMP</strong> processestoday is equivalent to total of all <strong>CMP</strong>steps at 0.25µm node Single step R&D cost same as multi-stepinterconnect process Unique by device type; few common to all <strong>Recession</strong> rewards New collaborations, new personal relationships Startups gain traction and momentum© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 12
The End Both <strong>CMP</strong> users and suppliers will benefitfrom work completed during the recessionOutlook from Semicon West 2010: <strong>CMP</strong> recovery is ahead of expectations <strong>CMP</strong> consumables revenue will surpass 2007peak levels in 2010 No residual impact beyond 2010 Market Update at Semicon West 2011© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 13
The Techcet Group, LLC Techcet Partners Karey Holland, Ph.D. Steven Holland, Ph.D. John Housley Lita Shon-Roy Technology & Market Analysts Michael Fury, Ph.D. Allan Wiesnoski Gary Ray, Ph.D.© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 14
The Techcet Group, LLC 2011 <strong>CMP</strong> Report Orders Lita Shon-Roy925-413-9373LShonRoy@Techcet.comwww.Techcet.com© 2011 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS <strong>CMP</strong>UGMay 18, 2011 15
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