From poverty to power - Oxfam-Québec
From poverty to power - Oxfam-Québec From poverty to power - Oxfam-Québec
4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY CLIMATE CHANGEBOX 4.6:CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER, AND CONFLICTIN CENTRAL ASIAClimate change is worsening the difficulties faced by theformer Soviet states of central Asia, where cotton farming anddeforestation have already undermined the ecosystem. Like itsneighbours, Tajikistan lives by water-intensive cotton farming,which is based on a dilapidated and hopelessly inefficientirrigation system. A civil war further damaged infrastructure,and nearly a quarter of the population uses irrigation channels –contaminated by farm chemicals – as their main source of drinkingwater. Far downstream, the Aral Sea continues to shrink, exposingthe fertiliser and pesticide dust washed into it in years past,creating a toxic wasteland for people living on its shores.Bad as things already are, climate change could precipitate a‘tipping point’. Tajikistan’s glaciers, the source of most of thewater in the Aral Sea Basin, have shrunk by 35 per cent in thepast 50 years, and what is left will shrink even faster astemperatures rise.In mountain valleys, the rapid melting of ice increases the riskof floods and landslides. Downstream, it is likely to increasecompetition for water. Regional water-sharing systems onceclosely woven together by Soviet design have unravelled andmust now be managed by five fractious and poverty-strickennew countries, each of which wants more water for nationaldevelopment, and all while the overall supply is dwindling –a sure recipe for future tension.BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGEThere are two broad routes to reducing people’s vulnerability to harm:reduce the extent of the hazard that they face, or reduce the risk of thathazard harming them. In the case of climate change, urgent action isessential on both fronts. The hazards of climate change are floods,droughts, hurricanes, erratic rainfall, and rising sea levels, the result ofhuman-induced global warming. Those hazards have to be tackled at261
FROM POVERTY TO POWERtheir source: global emissions must peak by 2015 and then fall by atleast 80 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050, in order to prevent globalwarming exceeding the high-danger point of 2 o C (see Part 5).However, even if greenhouse gases are rapidly brought undercontrol, the delayed effects of emissions already released mean thatrising sea levels, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and rainfall variabilitywill become more severe at least until 2030. 105 In the jargon, tacklingclimate change cannot focus only on ‘mitigation’ (reducing emissions),but must also give priority to ‘adaptation’ (building people’s resilienceto climate impacts). Adaptation is now essential, and communitiesneed substantial national and international support to do it successfully.Human communities have of course adapted to natural climatevariability for millennia by growing diverse crops, using irrigation tomanage scarce water, or carefully selecting seeds for the coming season.Still, some of the poorest communities today cannot cope even withthis natural variability and are severely set back by natural droughts orfloods, taking months or years to re-establish their livelihoods.Human-induced climate change will further exacerbate this stressbecause the speed, scale, and intensity of the severe weather events itcauses will push many communities beyond the bounds of theirexperience. They will be forced to find ways of coping with environmentalchange on a scale not seen since the last Ice Age: rainy seasonsthat do not arrive, rivers that dry up, arable lands that turn to desert,forests and plant species that disappear forever.In some parts of the world, just how the climate will change isinherently uncertain. In West Africa, for example, it is hotly debatedwhether rainfall will decrease and cause drought, or increase andcause flash floods, or stay the same on average but become far moreunreliable, making farmers’ planting decisions much riskier. Wherechange is this unpredictable, people must prepare themselves byacquiring information, resources, infrastructure, influence, andopportunities to diversify their livelihoods. Long-term developmentis one of the most important routes to building the adaptive capacityof an individual, community, or country.Development and disaster preparedness may be essential forbuilding resilience to climate change, but climate change in turnforces a rethink of development and disaster planning. It is no good262
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERtheir source: global emissions must peak by 2015 and then fall by atleast 80 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050, in order <strong>to</strong> prevent globalwarming exceeding the high-danger point of 2 o C (see Part 5).However, even if greenhouse gases are rapidly brought undercontrol, the delayed effects of emissions already released mean thatrising sea levels, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and rainfall variabilitywill become more severe at least until 2030. 105 In the jargon, tacklingclimate change cannot focus only on ‘mitigation’ (reducing emissions),but must also give priority <strong>to</strong> ‘adaptation’ (building people’s resilience<strong>to</strong> climate impacts). Adaptation is now essential, and communitiesneed substantial national and international support <strong>to</strong> do it successfully.Human communities have of course adapted <strong>to</strong> natural climatevariability for millennia by growing diverse crops, using irrigation <strong>to</strong>manage scarce water, or carefully selecting seeds for the coming season.Still, some of the poorest communities <strong>to</strong>day cannot cope even withthis natural variability and are severely set back by natural droughts orfloods, taking months or years <strong>to</strong> re-establish their livelihoods.Human-induced climate change will further exacerbate this stressbecause the speed, scale, and intensity of the severe weather events itcauses will push many communities beyond the bounds of theirexperience. They will be forced <strong>to</strong> find ways of coping with environmentalchange on a scale not seen since the last Ice Age: rainy seasonsthat do not arrive, rivers that dry up, arable lands that turn <strong>to</strong> desert,forests and plant species that disappear forever.In some parts of the world, just how the climate will change isinherently uncertain. In West Africa, for example, it is hotly debatedwhether rainfall will decrease and cause drought, or increase andcause flash floods, or stay the same on average but become far moreunreliable, making farmers’ planting decisions much riskier. Wherechange is this unpredictable, people must prepare themselves byacquiring information, resources, infrastructure, influence, andopportunities <strong>to</strong> diversify their livelihoods. Long-term developmentis one of the most important routes <strong>to</strong> building the adaptive capacityof an individual, community, or country.Development and disaster preparedness may be essential forbuilding resilience <strong>to</strong> climate change, but climate change in turnforces a rethink of development and disaster planning. It is no good262