From poverty to power - Oxfam-Québec

FROM POVERTY TO POWERIn Africa’s large river basins, total available water has alreadydecreased by 40–60 per cent. 101 If current trends continue, climatemodels predict that by 2050 much of sub-Saharan Africa will besignificantly drier, with 10 per cent less rainfall in the interior andwater loss exacerbated by higher evaporation rates. In South-EastAsia, climate change is predicted to affect the Indian monsoon, wherea 10 per cent fluctuation in average rainfall can cause either severedrought or flooding. 102The increased energy in the climate system is likely to increase thefrequency and magnitude of flooding in many regions. More intensedownpours will also affect the capture of water by the soil as infiltrationrates decline, more water runs off, and soil erosion increases.Increased temperatures and declines in snowfall are expected toaccelerate the retreat of glaciers, substantially reducing the volume ofmeltwater on which many higher-latitude countries depend. In Peru,for example, glacier coverage has fallen by 25 per cent in the past30 years, while in China virtually all glaciers have shown substantialmelting.Overall, it is estimated that these changes will increase the numberof people suffering water resource stress by half a billion by 2020, withenormous implications for food security and health. WHO estimatesthat by 2000 climate change was already responsible for approximately2.4 per cent of diarrhoea cases worldwide and 6 per cent of malariacases in some middle-income countries. 103 Such rates are set to risefurther as climate conditions worsen.Declines in food and water security could result in substantialnumbers of environmental refugees and internally displaced persons.The UN warns that, without action now, there could be over 150 millionenvironmental refugees by 2050, due to the likely effects of globalwarming. 104 Such a scale of migration is likely to increase conflict,within and between countries, and induce global social and economicinstability.260