From poverty to power - Oxfam-Québec

From poverty to power - Oxfam-Québec From poverty to power - Oxfam-Québec

12.07.2015 Views

CLIMATE CHANGEWe have a word for it – it’s chivala. It means the warming of the earth.And of course people see that changes have come, but they don’t reallylink them to the global issue. People hear about things on the radio,and they have knowledge of El Niño, but they don’t understand howthese things are linked up.THOMAS BWANALI, SHIRE HIGHLANDS MILK PRODUCERS, MALAWI, JUNE2007Every time there is a major ‘weather event’, be it drought in Africa orAustralia, floods in Europe or Bangladesh, or a hurricane in NewOrleans or Grenada, lobbyists and media alike immediately launchinto a speculative debate about whether climate change is its ‘cause’.Weather systems are so complex, and climate models so new, thatspecific events can still seldom be pinned on a single cause. However,the fact that the global climate is changing – with enormous ramifications– is beyond doubt. The temperature of the Earth is increasing:so far, every year in the new millennium has ranked among the tenwarmest years since records began in 1850, while 2005 tied with 1998as the hottest year on record. 93Climate change has been the subject of decades of global scientificstudy. Set up in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) brings together hundreds of the world’s top scientists toperiodically assess all relevant, published climate-related researchfrom around the world. Its 2007 report reflected a firm consensus,257

FROM POVERTY TO POWERhigher confidence, and more robust findings, based on the availabilityof more up-to-date studies covering a wider area compared withprevious reports. It concluded that human-induced climate change isnow ‘unequivocal’, is already well under way, and is occurring fasterthan expected. 94The IPCC’s grim global prognosis includes more erratic and severeweather patterns and further rises in sea levels. Low-lying island statessuch as Kiribati, the Maldives, and Tuvalu could disappear altogether,while countries such as Viet Nam and Egypt face devastation alongtheir coasts: a one-metre rise in sea levels (an estimate by the WorldBank of the possible impact of climate change) would flood the homesof 10 per cent of their populations, inundating major cities, andprompting massive refugee crises. The World Bank study concluded,‘Within this century, hundreds of millions of people are likely to bedisplaced by sea level rise; accompanying economic and ecologicaldamage will be severe for many. The world has not previously faced acrisis on this scale.’ 95The IPCC’s 2007 Assessment Report concluded that, withouturgent action to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the world’s averagesurface temperature is likely to increase by between 2°C and 4.5°C bythe year 2100, with a ‘best estimate’ of 3°C. 96 A growing body of scientificevidence supports the conclusion that warming beyond 2°C constitutesa ‘dangerous’ level of climate change. 97 In many countries, poorcommunities are already facing dangerous impacts. While any estimateof the casualties inflicted by climate change is necessarily approximate,WHO suggests that the warming and precipitation trends attributableto man-made climate change over the past 30 years already claimmore than 150,000 lives a year – most of them in poor countries. 98The deep injustice of climate change is that those with the leasthistorical responsibility stand to suffer most from its predicted consequences.Many of the citizens of developing countries in equatorialregions, who have historically produced very low levels of greenhousegases per capita, will be hardest hit. This is due to the severity of thepredicted environmental changes in these countries and to thecountries’ lack of resources to cope with them.258

CLIMATE CHANGEWe have a word for it – it’s chivala. It means the warming of the earth.And of course people see that changes have come, but they don’t reallylink them <strong>to</strong> the global issue. People hear about things on the radio,and they have knowledge of El Niño, but they don’t understand howthese things are linked up.THOMAS BWANALI, SHIRE HIGHLANDS MILK PRODUCERS, MALAWI, JUNE2007Every time there is a major ‘weather event’, be it drought in Africa orAustralia, floods in Europe or Bangladesh, or a hurricane in NewOrleans or Grenada, lobbyists and media alike immediately launchin<strong>to</strong> a speculative debate about whether climate change is its ‘cause’.Weather systems are so complex, and climate models so new, thatspecific events can still seldom be pinned on a single cause. However,the fact that the global climate is changing – with enormous ramifications– is beyond doubt. The temperature of the Earth is increasing:so far, every year in the new millennium has ranked among the tenwarmest years since records began in 1850, while 2005 tied with 1998as the hottest year on record. 93Climate change has been the subject of decades of global scientificstudy. Set up in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) brings <strong>to</strong>gether hundreds of the world’s <strong>to</strong>p scientists <strong>to</strong>periodically assess all relevant, published climate-related researchfrom around the world. Its 2007 report reflected a firm consensus,257

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