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geothermal power plant projects in central america - Orkustofnun

geothermal power plant projects in central america - Orkustofnun

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NET INJECTION BY SOURCE (2010)INSTALLED ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY (1990 - 2010)Imports70.7 GWh1.0 %2,5002,000HydroThermalThermal3,027.5 GWh41.4%Hydro4,220.9 GWh57.7 %MW1,5001,00050001990199520002004200520062007200820092010FIGURE 7: Panama: Net <strong>in</strong>jection by source <strong>in</strong> 2010;<strong>in</strong>stalled electricity generation capacity 1990-2010electricity, and the construction of a transmission l<strong>in</strong>e of 230 kV, 18,000 kilometers <strong>in</strong> length along theisthmus, which will allow the <strong>in</strong>terchange of 300 MW between countries. The MER is the seventhmarket, superimposed over the six markets or exist<strong>in</strong>g national systems, with regional regulation, <strong>in</strong>which the agents of EOR (Ente Operador Regional) make <strong>in</strong>ternational transactions of electricalenergy <strong>in</strong> the Central American region. It is expected that the SIEPAC project will beg<strong>in</strong> operat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>2013, expand<strong>in</strong>g the potential of regional energy trade and the regional development of renewablegeneration.2.2.8 Market analysisIn El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Panama, generation costs are determ<strong>in</strong>ed by the sum of thecosts of energy production and the capacity of energy supply contracts <strong>in</strong> the long term (competitivebidd<strong>in</strong>g) and the cost of the purchas<strong>in</strong>g spot market (economic dispatch based on the cost), with somelevel<strong>in</strong>g mechanism to mitigate the volatility of generation costs.Spot prices <strong>in</strong> wholesale markets competitive <strong>in</strong> the region <strong>in</strong>creased significantly after 2004 due tosoar<strong>in</strong>g bunker prices. In Honduras and Costa Rica, generation costs used to regulate retail prices werelower and more stable than <strong>in</strong> Panama, Nicaragua and El Salvador. These three countries were facedwith a tight balance between supply and demand <strong>in</strong> 2006 and 2007. The spot price <strong>in</strong>crease was morepronounced as they were dispatched by less efficient generat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>plant</strong>s and so were more expensive; asa result, the annual average spot price <strong>in</strong>creased by approximately 140 USD/MWh (Lecaros et al.,2010).Due to the fact that most ofthe regulators <strong>in</strong> the regiondo not publish the prices oftheir contracts, this marketanalysis is based on historicalprices, statistics collectedfrom managers of thewholesale market of eachcountry as shown <strong>in</strong> Figure 8.Based on this data, <strong>in</strong> thisstudy an average price of 115USD/MWh <strong>in</strong> the wholesalemarket <strong>in</strong> the CentralAmerican countries wasestimated for year 2010 withan expected growth rate of5%.FIGURE 1: Central America: Annual energy prices <strong>in</strong> thewholesale market for years 1998-2010; Note: a) Costa Rica:average price paid to private <strong>geothermal</strong> generator Miravalles III.b) Honduras: projected short-term marg<strong>in</strong>al costs7

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