Energy [R]evolution - Greenpeace

energy[r]evolutionTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27EUROPEAN RENEWABLEENERGY COUNCILreport 2010 eu 27 energy scenario

contentsintroduction 4executivesummary 6123theenergy[r]evolution 10energyresources&securityofsupply 19scenariosforafutureenergysupply 27456keyresultsoftheeu27energy[r]evolutionscenario 44policyrecommendations 54glossary&appendix 59ANDASOL 1 SOLAR POWER STATION SUPPLIES UP TO 200,000 PEOPLE WITH CLIMATE-FRIENDLY ELECTRICITY AND SAVES ABOUT 149,000 TONNES OF CARBON DIOXIDE PER YEARCOMPARED WITH A MODERN COAL POWER PLANT.2

“willwelookintotheeyesofourchildrenandconfessthat we had the opportunity,but lacked the courage?that we had the technology,but lacked the vision?”© GREENPEACE/MARKEL REDONDOGreenpeaceInternational,EuropeanRenewableEnergyCouncil(EREC)date June 2010projectmanager&leadauthorSven Teske, Greenpeace InternationalEREC Arthouros Zervos,Christine Lins, Josche MuthGreenpeaceInternationalSven Teskeresearch&co-authorsDLR, Institute of TechnicalThermodynamics, Department ofSystems Analysis and TechnologyAssessment, Stuttgart, Germany:Dr. Wolfram Krewitt (†),Dr. ThomasPregger, Dr. Sonja Simon, Dr. TobiasNaegler. DLR, Institute of VehicleConcepts, Stuttgart, Germany:Dr. Stephan Schmid. Ecofys BV,Utrecht, The Netherlands: WinaGraus, Eliane Blomen. GreenhouseDevelopment Rights (Chapter 2.3)EcoEquity, Paul Baer, AssistantProfessor, School of Public Policy,Georgia Institute of Technology,Atlanta, USAregionalpartners:Greenpeace EU Tobias Boßmann,Frauke Thies, Jan Vande Putteeditor Crispin Aubreyprinting Beelzepub, Belgium,www.beelzepub.comdesign&layout onehemisphere,Sweden, www.onehemisphere.secontact sven.teske@greenpeace.org,lins@erec.orgfor further information about the global, regional and national scenarios please visit the energy [r]evolution website: www.energyblueprint.info/Published by Greenpeace International and EREC. (GPI reference number JN 330). Printed on 100% post consumer recycled chlorine-free paper.3

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27introduction“WE NEED TO MAKE SURE WE COME OUT OF THIS RECESSION WITH A REBALANCED AND GREEN ECONOMY.”NICK CLEGG, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER, UK© GP/HU WEIimage A WORKER ENTERS A TURBINE TOWER FOR MAINTENANCE AT DABANCHENG WIND FARM. CHINA’S BEST WIND RESOURCES ARE MADE POSSIBLE BY THE NATURAL BREACHIN TIANSHAN (TIAN MOUNTAIN).The energy debate has moved to the top of the agenda across thesocial, political and economic spectrum. Energy is the lifeblood ofthe economy, but Europe’s current energy model fails to guaranteea secure, sustainable and affordable supply into the future. Insecureand expensive fuel supplies, persistent safety risks and the urgentthreat of climate change call for an Energy [R]evolution.fueldependencyandsoaringpricesEurope’s energy system is characterised by increasing energyconsumption, increasing costs, and an increasing dependence onfossil and nuclear fuel imports. The price of fossil fuels has tripledover the last decade and become more and more volatile. At thesame time, our dependency on imported oil, coal and gas has risento more than half our energy needs. 1According to the European Commission, the price of fuel importstotalled an estimated € 350 billion in 2008 2 – money spent on theexploitation of finite natural resources, rather than sustainable jobsand economic development.references1EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY (2009), ENER12 NET ENERGY IMPORT DEPENDENCY.2EUROPEAN COMMISSION: SECOND STRATEGIC ENERGY REVIEW. AN EU ENERGYSECURITY AND SOLIDARITY ACTION PLAN, COM(2008) 781 FINAL.3CITIGROUP: NEW NUCLEAR – THE ECONOMCIS SAY NO, CITIGROUP NOVEMBER 2009;MOODY’S, SPECIAL COMMENT CREDIT RISKS AND BENEFITS OF PUBLIC POWER UTILITYPARTICIPATION IN NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION SUMMARY OPINION, MOODY’S JUNE 2007.4

image NORTH HOYLE WIND FARM,UK’S FIRST WIND FARM IN THE IRISHSEA WHICH WILL SUPPLY 50,000 HOMESWITH POWER.© ANTHONY UPTON 2003The picture for nuclear energy is no more attractive. Finland’sOlkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor project, heralded as the nuclearindustry’s poster child, is already three years behind schedule and50% over-budget. Ratings agency Moody’s has made it abundantlyclear that, even with massive government subsidy, nuclear power isnot a sound investment. 3 What is more, the world’s proven andreasonably assured uranium resources would only be able to covercurrent consumption levels for a few more decades.safetyrisksBP’s Deepwater Horizon catastrophe is only the most recentreminder of the hazards of our energy system. The blight of tarsands extraction threatens to be the next major oil disaster.Environmental damage and major risks to companies andshareholders will continue to exist as long as our economy dependson fossil and nuclear fuels.climatechangeLooming large behind the daily risks of our energy system is theurgent need to combat climate change. If Europe and the world failto slash greenhouse gas emissions urgently, we risk crossing atipping point in the climate system that could bring about runawayclimate change with devastating droughts, floods, sea level rise,storms and wildfires. In October 2009, European leaders set agreenhouse gas emission reduction target of 80-95% below1990 levels in 2050, though credible action on this commitmentis yet to come.towardsa100%renewableenergysystemThe challenges for Europe’s energy system are enormous. Butsolutions are within reach. Using technologies that already existtoday, from wind turbines to super-efficient appliances and electriccars, the Energy [R]evolution scenarios demonstrate how Europecan move into a sustainable energy future based on cost-effective,clean and stable supplies.The uptake of renewable energy technologies has grownexponentially over the last years. For the second year running,renewable energy technologies accounted for more than half of thepower production capacity added in Europe in 2009. 4 Alreadytoday, businesses active in resource-efficient and renewable energytechnologies form a significant part of the economy, providingmillions of sustainable jobs in Europe. 5The economic case for renewable energy sources and energyefficiency is expected to further improve as they develop technically,as the price of fossil fuels continues to rise and as their saving ofcarbon dioxide emissions is given a more realistic monetary value.A number of European cities and regions have already committedto generating 100% renewable energy in electricity, heating and/ortransport. Theisland of Samso in Denmarkis already demonstratingthat a fully renewable power supply is possible. The region ofNavarre in Northern Spain and the town of Beckerich inLuxembourg are expected to achieve the same objective in the nearfuture. This Energy [R]evolution study demonstrates how the entirecontinent can follow their example.hightimeforaswitchTo keep the lights on, major investment decisions to moderniseEurope’s energy system are unavoidable. Energy infrastructure isoutdated, and much of the European Union’s power generationcapacity is nearing the end of its life. Now is the time for anenergy revolution.Christine LinsSECRETARY GENERALEUROPEAN RENEWABLEENERGY COUNCIL (EREC)JUNE 2010Sven TeskeCLIMATE & ENERGY UNITGREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL“forthesecondyearrunning,renewableenergytechnologiesaccountedformorethanhalfofthepowerproductioncapacityaddedinEuropein2009.”Frauke ThiesCLIMATE & ENERGY UNITGREENPEACE EUROPEAN UNITreferences4EWEA, WIND IN POWER. 2009 EUROPEAN STATISTICS,HTTP://WWW.EWEA.ORG/FILEADMIN/EWEA_DOCUMENTS/DOCUMENTS/STATISTICS/100401_GENERAL_STATS_2009.PDF.5SEE FOR EXAMPLE: WWF AND WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE, LOW CARBON JOBS FOREUROPE – CURRENT OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE PROSPECTS,HTTP://ASSETS.PANDA.ORG/DOWNLOADS/LOW_CARBON_JOBS_FINAL.PDF5

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27executivesummary“EUROPE HAS A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP A GREEN ECONOMY WHICH WILL BOOST THE ECONOMY OVERALL AND BUILD NEW JOBS.”MAUD OLOFFSON, ENERGY MINISTER, SWEDEN© GREENPEACE/MARKEL REDONDOimage THE PS10 CONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT IN SEVILLA, SPAIN. THE 11 MEGAWATT SOLAR POWER TOWER PRODUCES ELECTRICITY WITH 624 LARGE MOVABLE MIRRORSCALLED HELIOSTATS. THE SOLAR RADIATION, MIRROR DESIGN PLANT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 23 GWH OF ELECTRICITY WHICH IS ENOUGH TO SUPPLY POWER TO A POPULATION OF 10,000.movingtowards100%renewableenergyineuropeEurope’s energy policy is at a crossroads. Many of its powerstations are nearing the end of their working lives and itsinfrastructure is aging. Important issues are at stake; energysecurity, stability of supply, growing demand, the employment ofthousands and the urgent need to cut emissions and head offclimate change. But an answer is within reach: energy savings andrenewable energy, with zero fuel costs, zero reliance on scarceresources, and zero climate damaging emissions, is an increasinglyattractive option. This study shows that investing in green energywill nudge up the cost of electricity in the short to medium term.But it will save trillions of Euros in fuel costs alone from 2030 andrepresents an immediate investment in jobs and energy security. Itpresents a revolution that will give Europe a global competitiveadvantage and act as a beacon to other regions looking to steer acourse away from the dangerous climate change approaching fromthe horizon. The revolution is feasible, as calculations done by theSystems Analysis and Technology Assessment department of theGerman Aerospace Center show. But it is going to rely onsupportive policies at European and member state level.6basicandadvancedenergy[r]evolutionsThis study outlines two energy development pathways, a basic and anadvanced scenario. Both are based on proven, existing technologies,rather than future unknowns. Both offer a broad mix of technologiesand efficiency options to allow for a good diversification ofinvestment risks and energy resources. The general frameworkparameters for population and GDP are based on the Referencescenario of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlookof 2009 (WEO 2009). 6 The work of the German Aerospace Center(DLR) combines a top-down analysis of the overall energy supply atEuropean level together with technology-oriented, bottom up studiesin relevant areas like learning curves and growth rates oftechnologies, cost analyses and assessment of resource potentials ofrenewable energies.references6THE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009 INCLUDES DIFFERENT ENERGY DEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS FOR 2030. THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION REPORT USES AS A BASELINE THEREFERENCE SCENARIO OF THE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009. THIS SCENARIO HAS BEENEXTRAPOLATED BY DLR TO 2050.

image WELDER WORKING AT VESTASWIND TURBINE FACTORY,CAMPBELLTOWN, SCOTLAND.© KATE DAVISON/GPA basic Energy [R]evolution reduces EU-wide carbon dioxideemissions by 80% compared to 1990 levels by 2050, while phasingout expensive nuclear power production and its dangerousradioactive waste. To achieve this, the scenario exploits Europe’slarge potential for energy efficiency. At the same time, availablecost-effective renewable energy sources are used for heat andelectricity generation, and transport.An advanced Energy [R]evolution dramatically improves energysecurity, boosts green technology leadership and pulls theemergency brake on greenhouse gas emissions, achieving close to afully renewable energy system by 2050. The advanced scenarioreduces EU-wide carbon dioxide emissions by 95% by 2050,matching the upper range of the emissions reduction target adoptedby EU leaders in October 2009. This scenario requires the rapidphasing out of nuclear power generation and assumes a maximumlifetime of 20 years for coal-fired power plants, half the technicallifetime of such plants.The scenario uses the same energy efficiency developments as thebasic Energy [R]evolution scenario. However, it projects less drivingand a faster uptake of efficient combustion vehicles. For the heatingsector, it projects a faster expansion of combined heat and power(CHP) for industry and more electrification of process heating.A faster uptake of electric vehicles, combined with the speedyimplementation of smart grids and super grids, about ten yearsearlier than under the basic Energy [R]evolution, would allow ahigher share of fluctuating renewable electricity from wind and solargeneration in the EU’s energy system. Furthermore, the scenarioentails a faster growth of solar and geothermal heating systems, inline with the latest renewable energy industry market developments. 7sixcharacteristicsoftheadvancedenergy[r]evolution1. Exploitation of the large existing energy efficiency potential willensure that primary energy demand is reduced by more than athird, from the current 73,880 PJ/a (2007) to 46,030 PJ/a in2050, compared to 75,920 PJ/a in the Reference scenario. Thisdramatic reduction is a crucial prerequisite for achieving asignificant share of renewable energy sources in the overallenergy supply system, compensating for the phasing out ofnuclear energy and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.2. Electric vehicles pick up in the transport sector and hydrogenproduced from electrolysis plays an increasingly important role.After 2020, the final energy share of electric vehicles increasesto 14% by 2030 and to 62% by 2050. More public transportsystems also use electricity and there is a greater shift intransporting freight from road to rail. With biomass mainlycommitted to stationary applications for heat and powergeneration, the production of biofuels is limited by theavailability of sustainable raw materials.3. The increased use of CHP generation additionally improves thesupply system’s energy conversion efficiency, increasingly usingnatural gas and biomass. In the long term, improved energyefficiency and a decreasing demand for heat, as well as a largepotential for producing heat directly from renewable energysources, limits the further expansion of CHP.4. The electricity sector will be the pioneer of renewable energyutilisation. By 2050, around 97% of electricity will be producedfrom renewable sources. A capacity of 1,520 GW will produce4,110 TWh of renewable electricity per year by 2050. Asignificant share of the fluctuating power generation from windand solar photovoltaics will be used to supply electricity forvehicle batteries and produce hydrogen as a secondary fuel intransport and industry. By using load management strategies,excess electricity generation will be reduced and more balancingpower made available.5. In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables willincrease to 92% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasinglyreplaced by more efficient modern technologies, in particularbiomass, solar collectors and geothermal. Geothermal heatpumps and solar thermal power will play a growing part inindustrial heat production.6. By 2050, 92% of final energy demand will be covered byrenewable energy sources. To achieve an economically attractivegrowth of these sources, a balanced and timely mobilisation ofall technologies is of great importance. Such mobilisationdepends on technical potentials, actual costs, cost reductionpotentials and technical maturity.investinginthefuture–thecostsandsavingsThe Energy [R]evolution will require initial investment higher than inthe Reference case. The resulting slightly higher electricity generationcosts under the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will, however,be compensated by reduced requirement for fuels in other sectorssuch as heating and transport. Assuming average costs of three centsper kWh for implementing energy efficiency measures, the additionalcost for electricity supply under the advanced Energy [R]evolutionscenario will amount to € 82 billion per year in 2020 and€ 73 billion per year in 2030, compared to the Reference scenario.These additional costs, which represent society’s investment in anenvironmentally benign, secure and affordable energy supply,decrease after 2030. By 2050, the annual cost of electricity supplywill be € 85 billion per year below those in the Reference scenario.references7SEE EREC, RE-THINKING 2050, GWEC, EPIA ET AL.7

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27It would require € 3.8 trillion of EU investment to implement theadvanced scenario - approximately 90% higher than the Referencescenario (€ 2.0 trillion). Under the Reference version, levels ofinvestment in renewable energy account for less than two thirds oftotal investment until 2030, € 780 billion, whereas conventionalfuels represent about one third. Under the advanced scenario,however, the EU shifts about 80% of investment towardsrenewables. By 2030, the remaining fossil fuel share of powersector investment would be focused mainly on combined heat andpower and efficient gas-fired power plants. The average annualadditional investment in the power sector under the advancedEnergy [R]evolution between 2007 and 2030 would beapproximately € 30 billion.Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuel costsavings in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of€ 2.1 trillion by 2050, or € 49 billion per year. The advanced Energy[R]evolution has even higher fuel cost savings of € 2.6 trillion, or€ 62 billion per year.Under the Reference scenario, the average annual additional fuelcosts compared to the advanced Energy [R]evolution are almosttwice as high as the additional investment requirements of theadvanced scenario. In fact, from 2040 onwards, the fuel savings areenough to fund the entire additional investment needs for renewable,cogeneration and back-up capacity under the advanced scenario. Therenewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricitywithout any further fuel costs, while the costs for coal and gas willcontinue to be a burden on national economies.jobcreationThe EU would see more direct jobs created in the energy sector ifit shifted to either of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios. The Energy[R]evolution scenarios lead to more energy sector jobs in EU 27 atevery stage.• By 2015, renewable power sector jobs in the advanced Energy[R]evolution scenario are estimated to reach about 830,00,260,000 more than in the Reference scenario. The basic versionwill lead to 720,000 jobs in the renewable power industry.• By 2020, the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario has createdabout 940,000 jobs in the renewable power industry, 410,000more than the Reference scenario. The job losses in the fossil fuelsector due to a reduced coal generation capacity areovercompensated by the growing renewable power generation.• By 2030, the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario has createdabout 1,2 million jobs in the renewable power industry, 780,000more than the Reference scenario. Approximately 280,000 newrenewable energy jobs are created between 2020 and 2030,compared to the reference with a slight decrease of renewableenergy jobs in the same time frame.emissionscutsof95%While CO2 emissions EU-wide will only decrease by 16% under theReference scenario by 2050, an unsustainable development path,under the advanced scenario they will decrease from 3,890 milliontonnes in 2007 to 195 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capitaemissions will drop from 7.9 tonnes/capita to 0.4 t/capita. In spiteof the phasing out of nuclear energy and a growing electricitydemand, CO2 emissions will decrease enormously in the electricitysector. In the long run, efficiency gains and the increased use ofrenewable electric vehicles, as well as a sharp expansion in publictransport, will even reduce CO2 emissions in the transport sector.With a share of 9% of total emissions in 2050, the power sectorwill reduce significantly its emissions.“fuelcostsavingsintheadvancedenergy[r]evolutionreach€2.6trillionby2050,or€62billionperyear.”8

image CONSTRUCTION OF THE OFFSHOREWINDFARM AT MIDDELGRUNDEN NEARCOPENHAGEN, DENMARK.© PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GPfivepolicyaskstostarttheenergy[r]evolutionThe central challenge to achieving an Energy [R]evolution is one ofimplementation. Today, three quarters of primary energy supplycomes from fossil fuels. To achieve large scale and cost effectivegrowth of renewable energy and resource-efficient technologies, abalanced and timely mobilisation of private and public investment isneeded. This mobilisation will rely on policy mechanisms to ensurethat conventional power sources are replaced by clean ones.The European Union and its member states are urged to makerapid progress in five areas.1.Develop a vision for a truly sustainable energy economy for2050 that guides European climate and energy policy Thisshould include commitment to a fully renewable energy system aswell as the development of a credible emissions reduction pathway.2. Adopt and implement ambitious targets for emissionsreductions, energy savings and renewable energy Legallybinding emission reductions of 30% by 2020, mandatory energysavings targets and the implementation of the 20% renewableenergy target are important foundations for energy developmentin the years to come.3. Remove barriers The electricity market and networkmanagement practices should be subject to a thorough reform.All subsidies and support measures for nuclear power, fossilfuels, inefficient plants, appliances, vehicles and buildings shouldbe removed. Energy prices should reflect the genuine costs offossil fuel and nuclear energy use.4. Implement effective policies to promote a clean economyAn update of the European Emissions Trading Scheme, theeffective implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive andambitious energy efficiency standards for vehicles, consumerappliances, buildings and power production should be part ofa clean energy strategy.5. Redirect public finance Structural and Cohesion Funds shouldbe re-directed towards renewable energy and energy savings.At the same time, targeted support for innovation and researchin energy saving technologies will be essential to hasten theEnergy [R]evolution.figure 0.1: developmentofprimaryenergyconsumptionunderthethreescenarios(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)80,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 0REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR2007201520202030204020509

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27theenergy[r]evolutionGLOBALKEY PRINCIPLESA DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYNEW BUSINESS MODELTHE NEW ELECTRICITY GRIDHYBRID SYSTEMSSMART GRIDSDECOUPLEGROWTH FROMFOSSIL FUEL USE. © G. POROPAT/DREAMSTIME“forsomeintheEU,energypolicyisthefightagainstclimatechange,“halfthesolutiontoforothersitisaboutclimatechangeistheenergysecurity.itisboth.”smartuseofpower.”JERZY GREENPEACE BUZEK INTERNATIONALPRESIDENT CLIMATE CAMPAIGNOF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT10

The climate change imperative demands nothing short of an energyrevolution. The expert consensus is that this fundamental shift must beginimmediately and be well underway within the next ten years in order toavert the worst impacts. What is needed is a complete transformation ofthe way we produce, consume and distribute energy, and at the same timemaintain economic growth. Nothing short of such a revolution will enableus to limit global warming to less than a rise in temperature of well below2° Celsius, above which the impacts become devastating.Current electricity generation relies mainly on burning fossil fuels, withtheir associated CO2 emissions, in very large power stations whichwaste much of their primary input energy. More energy is lost as thepower is moved around the electricity grid network and converted fromhigh transmission voltage down to a supply suitable for domestic orcommercial consumers. The system is innately vulnerable to disruption:localised technical, weather-related or even deliberately caused faultscan quickly cascade, resulting in widespread blackouts. Whichevertechnology is used to generate electricity within this old fashionedconfiguration, it will inevitably be subject to some, or all, of theseproblems. At the core of the Energy [R]evolution there therefore needsto be a change in the way that energy is both produced and distributed.keyprinciplestheenergy[r]evolutioncanbeachievedbyadheringtofivekeyprinciples:1.respect natural limits – phase out fossil fuels by the end of thiscentury on the global level and by 2050 on the European levelWe must learn to respect natural limits. There is only so muchcarbon that the atmosphere can absorb. Each year the globalpopulation emits over 25 billion tonnes of carbon equivalent; we areliterally filling up the sky. Geological resources of coal could provideseveral hundred years of fuel, but we cannot burn them and keepwithin safe limits. Oil and coal development must be ended.While the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario has a reductiontarget for energy related CO2 emissions of 50% from 1990 levelsby 2050 and 75% on the European level, the advanced case goesone step further and aims for a reduction target of over 80%globally and 95% on the European level.2.equity and fairness As long as there are natural limits thereneeds to be a fair distribution of benefits and costs withinsocieties, between nations and between present and futuregenerations. At one extreme, a third of the world’s population hasno access to electricity, whilst the most industrialised countriesconsume much more than their fair share.The effects of climate change on the poorest communities areexacerbated by massive global energy inequality. If we are toaddress climate change, one of the principles must be equity andfairness, so that the benefits of energy services – such as light,heat, power and transport – are available for all: north andsouth, rich and poor. Only in this way can we create true energysecurity, as well as the conditions for genuine human wellbeing.The Energy [R]evolution scenarios have a target to achieve energyequity as soon as technically possible. By 2050 the average percapita emission should be between 1 and 2 tonnes of CO2.image WANG WAN YI, AGE 76, ADJUSTS THE SUNLIGHTPOINT ON A SOLAR DEVICE USED TO BOIL HIS KETTLE.HE LIVES WITH HIS WIFE IN ONE ROOM CARVED OUTOF THE SANDSTONE, A TYPICAL DWELLING FOR LOCALPEOPLE IN THE REGION. DROUGHT IS ONE OF THE MOSTHARMFUL NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHWEST CHINA.CLIMATE CHANGE HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ONCHINA’S ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY.3.implement clean, renewable solutions and decentraliseenergy systems There is no energy shortage. All we need to dois use existing technologies to harness energy effectively andefficiently. Renewable energy and energy efficiency measures areready, viable and increasingly competitive. Wind, solar and otherrenewable energy technologies have experienced double digitmarket growth for the past decade.Just as climate change is real, so is the renewable energy sector.Sustainable decentralised energy systems produce less carbonemissions, are cheaper and involve less dependence on importedfuel. They create more jobs and empower local communities.Decentralised systems are more secure and more efficient.This is what the Energy [R]evolution must aim to create.“THE STONE AGE DID NOT END FOR LACK OF STONE, AND THE OILAGE WILL END LONG BEFORE THE WORLD RUNS OUT OF OIL.”Sheikh Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Arabian oil ministerTo stop the earth’s climate spinning out of control, most of the world’sfossil fuel reserves – coal, oil and gas – must remain in the ground. Ourgoal is for humans to live within the natural limits of our small planet.4.decouple growth from fossil fuel use Starting in the developedcountries, economic growth must be fully decoupled from fossilfuel usage. It is a fallacy to suggest that economic growth mustbe predicated on their increased combustion.We need to use the energy we produce much more efficiently, and weneed to make the transition to renewable energy and away fromfossil fuels quickly in order to enable clean and sustainable growth.5.phase out dirty, unsustainable energy We need to phase outcoal and nuclear power. We cannot continue to build coal plantsat a time when emissions pose a real and present danger to bothecosystems and people. And we cannot continue to fuel themyriad nuclear threats by pretending nuclear power can in anyway help to combat climate change. There is no role for nuclearpower in the Energy [R]evolution.fromprinciplestopracticeIn 2007, renewable energy sources accounted for 13% of theworld’s primary energy demand. Biomass, which is mostly used forheating, was the main renewable energy source. The share ofrenewable energy in electricity generation was 18%. Thecontribution of renewables to primary energy demand for heatsupply was around 24%. About 80% of primary energy supplytoday still comes from fossil fuels, and 6% from nuclear power. 8The time is right to make substantial structural changes in the energyand power sector within the next decade. Many power plants inindustrialised countries, such as the USA, Japan and the EuropeanUnion, are nearing retirement; more than half of all operating powerplants are over 20 years old. At the same time developing countries,such as China, India and Brazil, are looking to satisfy the growingenergy demand created by their expanding economies.references8‘ENERGY BALANCE OF NON-OECD COUNTRIES’ AND ‘ENERGY BALANCE OF OECDCOUNTRIES’, IEA, 2009111theenergy[r]evolution | KEY PRINCIPLES

1ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27theenergy[r]evolution | A DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYWithin the next ten years, the power sector will decide how this newdemand will be met, either by fossil and nuclear fuels or by theefficient use of renewable energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenariois based on a new political framework in favour of renewableenergy and cogeneration combined with energy efficiency.To make this happen both renewable energy and cogeneration – ona large scale and through decentralised, smaller units – have togrow faster than overall global energy demand. Both approachesmust replace old generating technologies and deliver the additionalenergy required in the developing world.As it is not possible to switch directly from the current large scalefossil and nuclear fuel based energy system to a full renewableenergy supply, a transition phase is required to build up thenecessary infrastructure. Whilst remaining firmly committed to thepromotion of renewable sources of energy, we appreciate that gas,used in appropriately scaled cogeneration plants, is valuable as atransition fuel, and able to drive cost-effective decentralisation ofthe energy infrastructure. With warmer summers, tri-generation,which incorporates heat-fired absorption chillers to deliver coolingcapacity in addition to heat and power, will become a particularlyvaluable means of achieving emissions reductions.The most important energy saving options are improved heatinsulation and building design, super efficient electrical machines anddrives, replacement of old style electrical heating systems byrenewable heat production (such as solar collectors) and a reductionin energy consumption by vehicles used for goods and passengertraffic. Industrialised countries, which currently use energy in the mostinefficient way, can reduce their consumption drastically without theloss of either housing comfort or information and entertainmentelectronics. The Energy [R]evolution scenario uses energy saved inOECD countries as a compensation for the increasing powerrequirements in developing countries. The ultimate goal is stabilisationof global energy consumption within the next two decades. At thesame time the aim is to create ‘energy equity’ – shifting the currentone-sided waste of energy in the industrialised countries towards afairer worldwide distribution of efficiently used supply.A dramatic reduction in primary energy demand compared to theIEA’s Reference scenario (see chapter 4) – but with the same GDPand population development - is a crucial prerequisite for achievinga significant share of renewable energy sources in the overall energysupply system, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energyand reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.adevelopmentpathwayThe Energy [R]evolution envisages a development pathway whichturns the present energy supply structure into a sustainable system.There are three main stages to this.step 1: energy efficiencyThe Energy [R]evolution is aimed at the ambitious exploitation ofthe potential for energy efficiency. It focuses on current bestpractice and technologies that will become available in the future,assuming continuous innovation. The energy savings are fairlyequally distributed over the three sectors – industry, transport anddomestic/business. Intelligent use, not abstinence, is the basicphilosophy for future energy conservation.step 2: the renewable energy [r]evolutiondecentralised energy and large scale renewables In order toachieve higher fuel efficiencies and reduce distribution losses, theEnergy [R]evolution scenario makes extensive use of DecentralisedEnergy (DE).This is energy generated at or near the point of use.DE is connected to a local distribution network system, supplyinghomes and offices, rather than the high voltage transmissionsystem. The proximity of electricity generating plant to consumersallows any waste heat from combustion processes to be piped tonearby buildings, a system known as cogeneration or combined heatand power. This means that nearly all the input energy is put to use,not just a fraction as with traditional centralised fossil fuel plant.figure 1.1: centralisedenergyinfrastructureswastemorethantwothirdsoftheirenergy61.5 unitsLOST THROUGH INEFFICIENTGENERATION AND HEAT WASTAGE3.5 unitsLOST THROUGH TRANSMISSIONAND DISTRIBUTION13 unitsWASTED THROUGHINEFFICIENT END USE© DREAMSTIME© DREAMSTIME100 units >>ENERGY WITHIN FOSSIL FUEL38.5 units >>OF ENERGY FED TO NATIONAL GRID35 units >>OF ENERGY SUPPLIED22 unitsOF ENERGYACTUALLY UTILISED12

DE also includes stand-alone systems entirely separate from thepublic networks, for example heat pumps, solar thermal panels orbiomass heating. These can all be commercialised at a domesticlevel to provide sustainable low emission heating. Although DEtechnologies can be considered ‘disruptive’ because they do not fitthe existing electricity market and system, with appropriate changesthey have the potential for exponential growth, promising ‘creativedestruction’ of the existing energy sector.A huge proportion of global energy in 2050 will be produced bydecentralised energy sources, although large scale renewable energysupply will still be needed in order to achieve a fast transition to arenewables dominated system. Large offshore wind farms andconcentrating solar power (CSP) plants in the sunbelt regions ofthe world will therefore have an important role to play.cogeneration The increased use of combined heat and powergeneration (CHP) will improve the supply system’s energyconversion efficiency, whether using natural gas or biomass. In thelonger term, a decreasing demand for heat and the large potentialfor producing heat directly from renewable energy sources will limitthe need for further expansion of CHP.renewable electricity The electricity sector will be the pioneer ofrenewable energy utilisation. Many renewable electricitytechnologies have been experiencing steady growth over the past 20to 30 years of up to 35% annually and are expected to consolidateat a high level between 2030 and 2050. By 2050, under the Energy[R]evolution scenario, the majority of electricity will be producedimage GREENPEACE OPENS A SOLARENERGY WORKSHOP IN BOMA. A MOBILEPHONE GETS CHARGED BY A SOLARENERGY POWERED CHARGER.from renewable energy sources. The anticipated growth of electricityuse in transport will further promote the effective use of renewablepower generation technologies.renewable heating In the heat supply sector, the contribution ofrenewables will increase significantly. Growth rates are expected tobe similar to those of the renewable electricity sector. Fossil fuelswill be increasingly replaced by more efficient modern technologies,in particular biomass, solar collectors and geothermal. By 2050,renewable energy technologies will satisfy the major part of heatingand cooling demand.transport Before new technologies, including hybrid or electric carsand new fuels such as bio fuels, can play a substantial role in thetransport sector, the existing large efficiency potentials have to beexploited. In this study, biomass is primarily committed tostationary applications; the use of bio fuels for transport is limitedby the availability of sustainably grown biomass. Electric vehicleswill therefore play an even more important role in improving energyefficiency in transport and substituting for fossil fuels.Overall, to achieve an economically attractive growth of renewableenergy sources, a balanced and timely mobilisation of alltechnologies is essential. Such a mobilisation depends on theresource availability, cost reduction potential and technologicalmaturity. And alongside technology driven solutions, lifestylechanges - like simply driving less and using more public transport –have a huge potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.© GP/PHILIP REYNAERS1theenergy[r]evolution | A DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYfigure 1.2: adecentralisedenergyfutureEXISTING TECHNOLOGIES, APPLIED IN A DECENTRALISED WAY AND COMBINED WITH EFFICIENCY MEASURES AND ZERO EMISSION DEVELOPMENTS, CANDELIVER LOW CARBON COMMUNITIES AS ILLUSTRATED HERE. POWER IS GENERATED USING EFFICIENT COGENERATION TECHNOLOGIES PRODUCING BOTH HEAT(AND SOMETIMES COOLING) PLUS ELECTRICITY, DISTRIBUTED VIA LOCAL NETWORKS. THIS SUPPLEMENTS THE ENERGY PRODUCED FROM BUILDING INTEGRATEDGENERATION. ENERGY SOLUTIONS COME FROM LOCAL OPPORTUNITIES AT BOTH A SMALL AND COMMUNITY SCALE. THE TOWN SHOWN HERE MAKES USE OF –AMONG OTHERS – WIND, BIOMASS AND HYDRO RESOURCES. NATURAL GAS, WHERE NEEDED, CAN BE DEPLOYED IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT MANNER.city1. PHOTOVOLTAIC, SOLAR FAÇADES WILL BE A DECORATIVEELEMENT ON OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS.PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS WILL BECOME MORE COMPETITIVEAND IMPROVED DESIGN WILL ENABLE ARCHITECTS TO USETHEM MORE WIDELY.2. RENOVATION CAN CUT ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF OLD BUILDINGSBY AS MUCH AS 80% - WITH IMPROVED HEAT INSULATION,INSULATED WINDOWS AND MODERN VENTILATION SYSTEMS.3. SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTORS PRODUCE HOT WATER FOR BOTHTHEIR OWN AND NEIGHBOURING BUILDINGS.4. EFFICIENT THERMAL POWER (CHP) STATIONS WILL COME INA VARIETY OF SIZES - FITTING THE CELLAR OF A DETACHEDHOUSE OR SUPPLYING WHOLE BUILDING COMPLEXES ORAPARTMENT BLOCKS WITH POWER AND WARMTH WITHOUTLOSSES IN TRANSMISSION.5. CLEAN ELECTRICITY FOR THE CITIES WILL ALSO COME FROMFARTHER AFIELD. OFFSHORE WIND PARKS AND SOLAR POWERSTATIONS IN DESERTS HAVE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL.13

1theenergy[r]evolution | NEW BUSINESS MODELENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27newbusinessmodelThe Energy [R]evolution scenario will also result in a dramatic changein the business model of energy companies, utilities, fuel suppliers andthe manufacturers of energy technologies. Decentralised energygeneration and large solar or offshore wind arrays which operate inremote areas, without the need for any fuel, will have a profoundimpact on the way utilities operate in 2020 and beyond.While today the entire power supply value chain is broken downinto clearly defined players, a global renewable power supply willinevitably change this division of roles and responsibilities. Thefollowing table provides an overview of today’s value chain and howit would change in a revolutionised energy mix.While today a relatively small number of power plants, owned andoperated by utilities or their subsidiaries, are needed to generatethe required electricity, the Energy [R]evolution scenario projects afuture share of around 60 to 70% of small but numerousdecentralised power plants performing the same task. Ownershipwill therefore shift towards more private investors and away fromcentralised utilities. In turn, the value chain for power companieswill shift towards project development, equipment manufacturingand operation and maintenance.table 1.2: utilitiestodayFUELSUPPLYminingcompaniesFUELSUPPLYminingcompanies(LARGE SCALE)GENERATIONTRADING utilitiestrader (e.g.banks)TRANS-MISSIONDISTRIBUTIONlocal DSOSALESIPP TSO retailer(LARGE &SMALL SCALE)GENERATIONutilitiesTRADINGtrader (e.g.banks)TRANS-MISSIONSTORAGEDISTRIBUTIONSALESRENEWABLEGENERATION RENEWABLEGENERATIONlocal DSOinvestorsIPP TSO retailerIT companiesIPP = INDEPENDEND POWER PRODUCERTSO = TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATORLOCAL DSO = LOCAL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATORtable 1.1: powerplantvaluechainTASK & MARKET PLAYER(LARGE SCALE) PROJECTGENERATION DEVELOPMENT INSTALLATIONPLANTOWNEROPERATION &MAINTANANCEFUELSUPPLYDISTRIBUTIONSALESSTATUS QUOVery few new power plants +central planninglarge scale generationin the hand of few IPP´s& utilitiesglobal miningoperationsgrid operationstill in thehands ofutilitiesMARKET PLAYERUtilityMining companyComponent manufacturerEngineering companies& project developersENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONPOWER MARKETmany smaller power plants +decentralized planninglarge number of players e.g.IPP´s, utilities, privateconsumer, building operatorsno fuelneeded(exceptbiomass)grid operationunder statecontrolMARKET PLAYERUtilityMining companyComponent manufacturerEngineering companies& project developers14

Simply selling electricity to customers will play a smaller role, asthe power companies of the future will deliver a total power plantto the customer, not just electricity. They will therefore movetowards becoming service suppliers for the customer. The majorityof power plants will also not require any fuel supply, with the resultthat mining and other fuel production companies will lose theirstrategic importance.The future pattern under the Energy [R]evolution will see more andmore renewable energy companies, such as wind turbinemanufacturers, also becoming involved in project development,installation and operation and maintenance, whilst utilities will losetheir status. Those traditional energy supply companies which donot move towards renewable project development will either losemarket share or drop out of the market completely.image THE TRUCK DROPS ANOTHERLOAD OF WOOD CHIPS AT THE BIOMASSPOWER PLANT IN LELYSTAD,THE NETHERLANDS.step 3: optimised integration – renewables 24/7A complete transformation of the energy system will be necessaryto accommodate the significantly higher shares of renewable energyexpected under the Energy [R]evolution scenario. The grid networkof cables and sub-stations that brings electricity to our homes andfactories was designed for large, centralised generators running athuge loads, usually providing what is known as ‘baseload’ power.Renewable energy has had to fit in to this system as an additionalslice of the energy mix and adapt to the conditions under which thegrid currently operates. If the Energy [R]evolution scenario is to berealised, this will have to change.Some critics of renewable energy say it is never going to be able toprovide enough power for our current energy use, let alone for theprojected growth in demand. This is because it relies mostly onnatural resources, such as the wind and sun, which are not available24/7. Existing practice in a number of countries has already shownthat this is wrong, and further adaptations to how the grid networkoperates will enable the large quantities of renewable generatingcapacity envisaged in this report to be successfully integrated.We already have the sun, wind, geothermal sources and runningrivers available right now, whilst ocean energy, biomass and efficientgas turbines are all set to make a massive contribution in thefuture. Clever technologies can track and manage energy usepatterns, provide flexible power that follows demand through theday, use better storage options and group customers together toform ‘virtual batteries’. With all these solutions we can secure therenewable energy future needed to avert catastrophic climatechange. Renewable energy 24/7 is technically and economicallypossible, it just needs the right policy and the commercialinvestment to get things moving and ‘keep the lights on’. 9© GP/BAS BEENTJES1theenergy[r]evolution | THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRIDthenewelectricitygridThe electricity ‘grid’ is the collective name for all the cables,transformers and infrastructure that transport electricity frompower plants to the end users. In all networks, some energy is lostas it is travels, but moving electricity around within a localiseddistribution network is more efficient and results in less energy loss.The existing electricity transmission (main grid lines) anddistribution system (local network) was mainly designed andplanned 40 to 60 years ago. All over the developed world, the gridswere built with large power plants in the middle and high voltagealternating current (AC) transmission power lines connecting up tothe areas where the power is used. A lower voltage distributionnetwork then carries the current to the final consumers. This isknown as a centralised grid system, with a relatively small numberof large power stations mostly fuelled by coal or gas.references9THE ARGUMENTS AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS OUTLINED HERE ARE EXPLAINED IN MOREDETAIL IN THE EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY COUNCIL/GREENPEACE REPORT,“[R]ENEWABLES 24/7: INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDED TO SAVE THE CLIMATE”, NOVEMBER 2009.15

1ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27theenergy[r]evolution | HYBRID SYSTEMSIn the future we need to change the grid network so that it does notrely on large conventional power plants but instead on clean energyfrom a range of renewable sources. These will typically be smallerscale power generators distributed throughout the grid. A localiseddistribution network is more efficient and avoids energy lossesduring long distance transmission. There will also be someconcentrated supply from large renewable power plants. Examplesof these large generators of the future are the massive wind farmsalready being built in Europe’s North Sea and the plan for largeareas of concentrating solar mirrors to generate energy in SouthernEurope or Northern Africa.The challenge ahead is to integrate new generation sources and atthe same time phase out most of the large scale conventional powerplants, while still keeping the lights on. This will need novel types ofgrids and an innovative power system architecture involving bothnew technologies and new ways of managing the network to ensurea balance between fluctuations in energy demand and supply.The key elements of this new power system architecture are micro grids,smart grids and an efficient large scale super grid. The three types ofsystem will support and interconnect with each other (see Figure 1.3).A major role in the construction and operation of this new systemarchitecture will be played by the IT sector. Because a smart gridhas power supplied from a diverse range of sources and locations itrelies on the gathering and analysis of a large quantity of data. Thisrequires software, hardware and networks that are capable ofdelivering data quickly, and responding to the information that theycontain. Providing energy users with real time data about theirenergy consumption patterns and the appliances in their buildings,for example, helps them to improve their energy efficiency, and willallow appliances to be used at a time when a local renewablesupply is plentiful, for example when the wind is blowing.There are numerous IT companies offering products and services tomanage and monitor energy. These include IBM, Fujitsu, Google,Microsoft and Cisco. These and other giants of thetelecommunications and technology sector have the power to makethe grid smarter, and to move us faster towards a clean energyfuture. Greenpeace has initiated the ‘Cool IT’ campaign to putpressure on the IT sector to make such technologies a reality.hybridsystemsThe developed world has extensive electricity grids supplying powerto nearly 100% of the population. In parts of the developing world,however, many rural areas get by with unreliable grids or pollutingelectricity, for example from stand-alone diesel generators. This isalso very expensive for small communities.The electrification of rural areas that currently have no access toany power system cannot go ahead as it has in the past. A standardapproach in developed countries has been to extend the grid byinstalling high or medium voltage lines, new substations and a lowvoltage distribution grid. But when there is low potential electricitydemand, and long distances between the existing grid and ruralareas, this method is often not economically feasible.Electrification based on renewable energy systems with a hybrid mix ofsources is often the cheapest as well as the least polluting alternative.Hybrid systems connect renewable energy sources such as wind andsolar power to a battery via a charge controller, which stores thegenerated electricity and acts as the main power supply. Back-up supplytypically comes from a fossil fuel, for example in a wind-battery-diesel orPV-battery-diesel system. Such decentralised hybrid systems are morereliable, consumers can be involved in their operation through innovativetechnologies and they can make best use of local resources. They arealso less dependent on large scale infrastructure and can be constructedand connected faster, especially in rural areas.Finance can often be an issue for relatively poor rural communitieswanting to install such hybrid renewable systems. Greenpeace hastherefore developed a model in which projects are bundled together inorder to make the financial package large enough to be eligible forinternational investment support. In the Pacific region, for example,power generation projects from a number of islands, an entire islandstate such as the Maldives or even several island states could bebundled into one project package. This would make it large enoughfor funding as an international project by OECD countries. Fundingcould come from a mixture of a feed-in tariff and a fund whichcovers the extra costs, as proposed in the “[R]enewables 24/7”report, and known as a Feed-in Tariff Support Mechanism. In termsof project planning, it is essential that the communities themselvesare directly involved in the process.elementsinthenewpowersystemarchitectureA hybrid system based on more than one generating source, forexample solar and wind power, is a method of providing a securesupply in remote rural areas or islands, especially where there is nogrid-connected electricity. This is particularly appropriate indeveloping countries. In the future, several hybrid systems could beconnected together to form a micro grid in which the supply ismanaged using smart grid techniques.A smart grid is an electricity grid that connects decentralisedrenewable energy sources and cogeneration and distributes powerhighly efficiently. Advanced communication and control technologiessuch as smart electricity meters are used to deliver electricity morecost effectively, with lower greenhouse intensity and in response toconsumer needs. Typically, small generators such as wind turbines, solar16panels or fuels cells are combined with energy management to balanceout the load of all the users on the system. Smart grids are a way tointegrate massive amounts of renewable energy into the system andenable the decommissioning of older centralised power stations.A super grid is a large scale electricity grid network linkingtogether a number of countries, or connecting areas with a largesupply of renewable electricity to an area with a large demand -ideally based on more efficient HVDC (High Voltage DirectCurrent) cables. An example of the former would be theinterconnection of all the large renewable based power plants in theNorth Sea. An example of the latter would be a connection betweenSouthern Europe and Africa so that renewable energy could beexported from an area with a large renewable resource to urbancentres where there is high demand.

smartgridsThe task of integrating renewable energy technologies into existingpower systems is similar in all power systems around the world,whether they are large centralised networks or island systems. Themain aim of power system operation is to balance electricityconsumption and generation.Thorough forward planning is needed to ensure that the availableproduction can match demand at all times. In addition to balancingsupply and demand, the power system must also be able to:• Fulfil defined power quality standards – voltage/frequency -which may require additional technical equipment, and• Survive extreme situations such as sudden interruptions of supply,for example from a fault at a generation unit or a breakdown inthe transmission system.Integrating renewable energy by using a smart grid means movingaway from the issue of baseload power towards the question as towhether the supply is flexible or inflexible. In a smart grid aportfolio of flexible energy providers can follow the load during bothday and night (for example, solar plus gas, geothermal, wind anddemand management) without blackouts.A number of European countries have already shown that it is possibleto integrate large quantities of variable renewable power generationinto the grid network and achieve a high percentage of the total supply.In Denmark, for example, the average supplied by wind power is about20%, with peaks of more than 100% of demand. On those occasionssurplus electricity is exported to neighbouring countries. In Spain, amuch larger country with a higher demand, the average supplied bywind power is 14%, with peaks of more than 50%.Until now renewable power technology development has put most effortinto adjusting its technical performance to the needs of the existingnetwork, mainly by complying with grid codes, which cover such issues asvoltage frequency and reactive power. However, the time has come for thepower systems themselves to better adjust to the needs of variablegeneration. This means that they must become flexible enough to followthe fluctuations of variable renewable power, for example by adjustingdemand via demand-side management and/or deploying storage systems.The future power system will no longer consist of a few centralisedpower plants but instead of tens of thousands of generation unitssuch as solar panels, wind turbines and other renewable generation,partly distributed in the distribution network, partly concentrated inlarge power plants such as offshore wind parks.The trade off is that power system planning will become morecomplex due to the larger number of generation assets and thesignificant share of variable power generation causing constantlychanging power flows. Smart grid technology will be needed to supportpower system planning. This will operate by actively supporting dayaheadforecasts and system balancing, providing real-time informationabout the status of the network and the generation units, incombination with weather forecasts. It will also play a significant rolein making sure systems can meet the peak demand at all times andmake better use of distribution and transmission assets, therebykeeping the need for network extensions to the absolute minimum.To develop a power system based almost entirely on renewableenergy sources will require a new overall power systemimage THE WIND TURBINES ARE GOINGTO BE USED FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OFAN OFFSHORE WINDFARM ATMIDDELGRUNDEN WHICH IS CLOSETO COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.architecture, including smart grid technology. This concept will needsubstantial amounts of further work to fully emerge. 10 Figure 1.3shows a simplified graphic representation of the key elements infuture renewable-based power systems using smart grid technology.A range of options are available to enable the large-scale integrationof variable renewable energy resources into the power supply system.These include demand side management, the concept of a VirtualPower Plant and a number of choices for the storage of power.The level and timing of demand for electricity can be managed byproviding consumers with financial incentives to reduce or shut off theirsupply at periods of peak consumption. This system is already used forsome large industrial customers. A Norwegian power supplier eveninvolves private household customers by sending them a text message witha signal to shut down. Each household can decide in advance whether ornot they want to participate. In Germany, experiments are being conductedwith time flexible tariffs so that washing machines operate at night andrefrigerators turn off temporarily during periods of high demand.This type of demand side management has been simplified by advancesin communications technology. In Italy, for example,30 million innovative electricity counters have been installed to allowremote meter reading and control of consumer and service information.Many household electrical products or systems, such as refrigerators,dishwashers, washing machines, storage heaters, water pumps and airconditioning, can be managed either by temporary shut-off or byrescheduling their time of operation, thus freeing up electricity load forother uses and dovetailing it with variations in renewable supply.A Virtual Power Plant (VPP) interconnects a range of real power plants(for example solar, wind and hydro) as well as storage options distributedin the power system using information technology. A real life example ofa VPP is the Combined Renewable Energy Power Plant developed bythree German companies. 11 This system interconnects and controls 11wind power plants, 20 solar power plants, four CHP plants based onbiomass and a pumped storage unit, all geographically spread aroundGermany. The VPP combines the advantages of the various renewableenergy sources by carefully monitoring (and anticipating through weatherforecasts) when the wind turbines and solar modules will be generatingelectricity. Biogas and pumped storage units are then used to make upthe difference, either delivering electricity as needed in order to balanceshort term fluctuations or temporarily storing it. 12 Together thecombination ensures sufficient electricity supply to cover demand.A number of mature and emerging technologies are viable options forstoring electricity. Of these, pumped storage can be considered the mostestablished technology.Pumped storage is a type of hydroelectric powerstation that can store energy. Water is pumped from a lower elevationreservoir to a higher elevation during times of low cost, off-peakelectricity. During periods of high electrical demand, the stored water isreleased through turbines. Taking into account evaporation losses fromthe exposed water surface and conversion losses, roughly 70 to 85% ofthe electrical energy used to pump the water into the elevated reservoircan be regained when it is released. Pumped storage plants can alsorespond to changes in the power system load demand within seconds.references10SEE ALSO ECOGRID PHASE 1 SUMMARY REPORT, AVAILABLE AT:HTTP://WWW.ENERGINET.DK/NR/RDONLYRES/8B1A4A06-CBA3-41DA-9402-B56C2C288FB0/0/ECOGRIDDK_PHASE1_SUMMARYREPORT.PDF11SEE ALSO HTTP://WWW.KOMBIKRAFTWERK.DE/INDEX.PHP?ID=2712SEE ALSOHTTP://WWW.SOLARSERVER.DE/SOLARMAGAZIN/ANLAGEJANUAR2008_E.HTML© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP171theenergy[r]evolution | SMART GRIDS

1ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27theenergy[r]evolution | SMART GRIDSfigure 1.3: thesmart-gridvisionfortheenergy[r]evolutionA VISION FOR THE FUTURE – A NETWORK OF INTEGRATED MICROGRIDS THAT CAN MONITOR AND HEAL ITSELF.HOUSES WITHSOLAR PANELSISOLATED MICROGRIDOFFICES WITHSOLAR PANELSWIND FARMCENTRAL POWER PLANTINDUSTRIAL PLANTPROCESSORS EXECUTE SPECIAL PROTECTION SCHEMES IN MICROSECONDS•SENSORS ON ‘STANDBY’ – DETECT FLUCTUATIONS AND DISTURBANCES, AND CAN SIGNAL FOR AREAS TO BE ISOLATEDSENSORS ‘ACTIVATED’ – DETECT FLUCTUATIONS AND DISTURBANCES, AND CAN SIGNAL FOR AREAS TO BE ISOLATEDSMART APPLIANCES CAN SHUT OFF IN RESPONSE TO FREQUENCY FLUCTUATIONSDEMAND MANAGEMENT USE CAN BE SHIFTED TO OFF-PEAK TIMES TO SAVE MONEYGENERATORS ENERGY FROM SMALL GENERATORS AND SOLAR PANELS CAN REDUCE OVERALL DEMAND ON THE GRIDSTORAGE ENERGY GENERATED AT OFF-PEAK TIMES COULD BE STORED IN BATTERIES FOR LATER USEDISTURBANCE IN THE GRIDAnother way of ‘storing’ electricity is to use it to directly meet thedemand from electric vehicles. The number of electric cars andtrucks is expected to increase dramatically under the Energy[R]evolution scenario. The Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) concept, forexample, is based on electric cars equipped with batteries that canbe charged during times when there is surplus renewable generationand then discharged to supply peaking capacity or ancillary servicesto the power system while they are parked. During peak demandtimes cars are often parked close to main load centres, for instanceoutside factories, so there would be no network issues. Within theV2G concept a Virtual Power Plant would be built using ICTtechnology to aggregate the electric cars participating in therelevant electricity markets and to meter the charging/de-chargingactivities. In 2009 the EDISON demonstration project was launchedto develop and test the infrastructure for integrating electric carsinto the power system of the Danish island of Bornholm.18

energyresources&securityofsupplyGLOBALSTATUS OF GLOBAL FUEL SUPPLIESGLOBAL POTENTIAL FORSUSTAINABLE BIOMASSPOTENTIAL OF ENERGY CROPSAROUND80%OFGLOBALENERGYDEMANDIS MET BY FINITE FOSSILFUELS. © R. KASPRZAK/DREAMSTIME“theenergyrevolutioninfrancewillbethrough“quote.”energysavingsandthedevelopmentofWHOWHERE/WHATrenewableenergies.”JEAN-LOUIS BORLOOFRENCH MINISTER FOR ECOLOGY, ENERGY,SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING19

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 272energysourcesandsecurityofsupply | STATUS OF GLOBAL FUEL SUPPLIESThe issue of security of supply is now at the top of the energy policyagenda. Concern is focused both on price security and the security ofphysical supply. At present around 80% of global energy demand ismet by fossil fuels. The unrelenting increase in energy demand ismatched by the finite nature of these resources. At the same time,the global distribution of oil and gas resources does not match thedistribution of demand. Some countries have to rely almost entirelyon fossil fuel imports. The maps on the following pages provide anoverview of the availability of different fuels and their regionaldistribution. Information in this chapter is based partly on the report‘Plugging the Gap’ 13 , as well as information from the InternationalEnergy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2008 and 2009 reports.statusofglobalfuelsuppliesOil is the lifeblood of the modern global economy, as the effects ofthe supply disruptions of the 1970s made clear. It is the numberone source of energy, providing 32% of the world’s needs and thefuel employed almost exclusively for essential uses such astransportation. However, a passionate debate has developed over theability of supply to meet increasing consumption, a debate obscuredby poor information and stirred by recent soaring prices.thereserveschaosPublic data about oil and gas reserves is strikingly inconsistent, andpotentially unreliable for legal, commercial, historical andsometimes political reasons. The most widely available and quotedfigures, those from the industry journals Oil & Gas Journal andWorld Oil, have limited value as they report the reserve figuresprovided by companies and governments without analysis orverification. Moreover, as there is no agreed definition of reserves orstandard reporting practice, these figures usually stand for differentphysical and conceptual magnitudes. Confusing terminology -‘proved’, ‘probable’, ‘possible’, ‘recoverable’, ‘reasonable certainty’ -only adds to the problem.Historically, private oil companies have consistently underestimatedtheir reserves to comply with conservative stock exchange rules andthrough natural commercial caution. Whenever a discovery wasmade, only a portion of the geologist’s estimate of recoverableresources was reported; subsequent revisions would then increase thereserves from that same oil field over time. National oil companies,mostly represented by OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum ExportingCountries), have taken a very different approach. They are not subjectto any sort of accountability and their reporting practices are evenless clear. In the late 1980s, the OPEC countries blatantly overstatedtheir reserves while competing for production quotas, which wereallocated as a proportion of the reserves. Although some revision wasneeded after the companies were nationalised, between 1985 and1990, OPEC countries increased their apparent joint reserves by82%. Not only were these dubious revisions never corrected, butmany of these countries have reported untouched reserves for years,even if no sizeable discoveries were made and production continuedat the same pace. Additionally, the Former Soviet Union’s oil and gasreserves have been overestimated by about 30% because the originalassessments were later misinterpreted.20Whilst private companies are now becoming more realistic aboutthe extent of their resources, the OPEC countries hold by far themajority of the reported reserves, and their information is asunsatisfactory as ever. Their conclusions should therefore be treatedwith considerable caution. To fairly estimate the world’s oilresources a regional assessment of the mean backdated (i.e.‘technical’) discoveries would need to be performed.non-conventionaloilreservesA large share of the world’s remaining oil resources is classified as‘non-conventional’. Potential fuel sources such as oil sands, extraheavy oil and oil shale are generally more costly to exploit and theirrecovery involves enormous environmental damage. The reserves ofoil sands and extra heavy oil in existence worldwide are estimatedto amount to around 6 trillion barrels, of which between 1 and 2trillion barrels are believed to be recoverable if the oil price is highenough and the environmental standards low enough.One of the worst examples of environmental degradation resultingfrom the exploitation of unconventional oil reserves is the oil sandsthat lie beneath the Canadian province of Alberta and form theworld’s second-largest proven oil reserves after Saudi Arabia.Producing crude oil from these ‘tar sands’ - a heavy mixture ofbitumen, water, sand and clay found beneath more than 54,000square miles 14 of prime forest in northern Alberta, an area the sizeof England and Wales - generates up to four times more carbondioxide, the principal global warming gas, than conventional drilling.The booming oil sands industry will produce 100 million tonnes ofCO2 a year (equivalent to a fifth of the UK’s entire annualemissions) by 2012, ensuring that Canada will miss its emissiontargets under the Kyoto treaty. The oil rush is also scarring awilderness landscape: millions of tonnes of plant life and top soilare scooped away in vast opencast mines and millions of litres ofwater diverted from rivers. Up to five barrels of water are neededto produce a single barrel of crude and the process requires hugeamounts of natural gas. It takes two tonnes of the raw sands toproduce a single barrel of oil.gasNatural gas has been the fastest growing fossil energy source over thelast two decades, boosted by its increasing share in the electricitygeneration mix. Gas is generally regarded as an abundant resourceand public concerns about depletion are limited to oil, even thoughfew in-depth studies address the subject. Gas resources are moreconcentrated, and a few massive fields make up most of the reserves.The largest gas field in the world holds 15% of the UltimateRecoverable Resources (URR), compared to 6% for oil.Unfortunately, information about gas resources suffers from the samebad practices as oil data because gas mostly comes from the samegeological formations, and the same stakeholders are involved.13‘PLUGGING THE GAP - A SURVEY OF WORLD FUEL RESOURCES AND THEIR IMPACT ONTHE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND ENERGY’, GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL/RENEWABLEENERGY SYSTEMS, 2006.14THE INDEPENDENT, 10 DECEMBER 2007

image THE BIOENERGY VILLAGE OF JUEHNDE WHICH WAS THE FIRST COMMUNITY INGERMANY TO PRODUCE ALL ITS ENERGY NEEDED FOR HEATING AND ELECTRICITY,WITH CO2 NEUTRAL BIOMASS.image A NEWLY DEFORESTED AREA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR AGRICULTURALEXPANSION IN THE AMAZON, BRAZIL.Most reserves are initially understated and then gradually revisedupwards, giving an optimistic impression of growth. By contrast,Russia’s reserves, the largest in the world, are considered to havebeen overestimated by about 30%. Owing to geological similarities,gas follows the same depletion dynamic as oil, and thus the samediscovery and production cycles. In fact, existing data for gas is ofworse quality than for oil, with ambiguities arising over the amountproduced, partly because flared and vented gas is not alwaysaccounted for. As opposed to published reserves, the technical oneshave been almost constant since 1980 because discoveries haveroughly matched production.shalegas 15Natural gas production, especially in the United States, has recentlyinvolved a growing contribution from non-conventional gas suppliessuch as shale gas. Conventional natural gas deposits have a welldefinedgeographical area, the reservoirs are porous and permeable,the gas is produced easily through a wellbore and does notgenerally require artificial stimulation. Non-conventional deposits,on the other hand, are often lower in resource concentration, moredispersed over large areas and require well stimulation or someother extraction or conversion technology. They are also usuallymore expensive to develop per unit of energy.Research and investment in non-conventional gas resources has increasedsignificantly in recent years due to the rising price of conventional naturalgas. In some areas the technologies for economic production havealready been developed, in others it is still at the research stage.Extracting shale gas, however, usually goes hand in hand withenvironmentally hazardous processes. Even so, it is expected to increase.coalCoal was the world’s largest source of primary energy until it wasovertaken by oil in the 1960s. Today, coal supplies almost onequarter of the world’s energy. Despite being the most abundant offossil fuels, coal’s development is currently threatened byenvironmental concerns; hence its future will unfold in the contextof both energy security and global warming.Coal is abundant and more equally distributed throughout the worldthan oil and gas. Global recoverable reserves are the largest of allfossil fuels, and most countries have at least some. Moreover, existingand prospective big energy consumers like the US, China and Indiaare self-sufficient in coal and will be for the foreseeable future. Coalhas been exploited on a large scale for two centuries, so both theproduct and the available resources are well known; no substantialnew deposits are expected to be discovered. Extrapolating thedemand forecast forward, the world will consume 20% of its currentreserves by 2030 and 40% by 2050. Hence, if current trends aremaintained, coal would still last several hundred years.© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP© GP/RODRIGO BALÉIA2energysourcesandsecurityofsupply | STATUS OF GLOBAL FUEL SUPPLIEStable 2.1: overviewoffossilfuelreservesandresourcesRESERVES, RESOURCES AND ADDITIONAL OCCURRENCES OF FOSSIL ENERGY CARRIERS ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT AUTHORS. C CONVENTIONAL (PETROLEUMWITH A CERTAIN DENSITY, FREE NATURAL GAS, PETROLEUM GAS, NC NON-CONVENTIONAL) HEAVY FUEL OIL, VERY HEAVY OILS, TAR SANDS AND OIL SHALE,GAS IN COAL SEAMS, AQUIFER GAS, NATURAL GAS IN TIGHT FORMATIONS, GAS HYDRATES). THE PRESENCE OF ADDITIONAL OCCURRENCES IS ASSUMEDBASED ON GEOLOGICAL CONDITIONS, BUT THEIR POTENTIAL FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS CURRENTLY VERY UNCERTAIN. IN COMPARISON: IN 1998, THEGLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND WAS 402EJ (UNDP ET AL., 2000).IEA, ENERGY CARRIERWEO 2009, WEO BROWN, 20022008, WEO 2007EJEJ2002cEJadditional occurrences 921 tcm cGas reservesresourcesadditional occurrences182 tcm a405 tcm a921 tcm a5,6009,4006,20011,100Oil reserves2,369 bb b5,800 5,700resources10,200 13,400additional occurrencesCoal reservesresources847 bill tonnes c23,60026,00022,500165,000Total resource (reserves + resources)Total occurrence180,600 223,900IPCC, 2001aEJcnccnccnccnc5,400 c8,000 nc11,700 c10,800 nc796,0005,900 c6,600 nc7,500 c15,500 nc61,00042,000100,000121,000212,2001,204,200NAKICENOVICET AL., 2000EJ5,900 c8,000 nc11,700 c10,800 nc799,7006,300 c8,100 nc6,100 c13,900 nc79,50025,400117,000125,600213,2001,218,000UNDP ET AL.,2000EJ5,500 c9,400 nc11,100 c23,800 nc d930,0006,000 c5,100 nc6,100 c15,200 nc45,00020,700179,000281,9001,256,000BGR, 1998EJ5,3001007,800111,9006,7005,9003,30025,20016,300179,000361,500sources&notes A) WEO 2009, B) OIL WEO 2008, PAGE 205 TABLE 9.1C) IEA WEO 2008, PAGE 127 & WEC 2007. D) INCLUDING GAS HYDRATES.SEE TABLE FOR ALL OTHER SOURCES.15INTERSTATE NATURAL GAS ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA (INGAA), “AVAILABILITY,ECONOMICS AND PRODUCTION POTENTIAL OF NORTH AMERICAN UNCONVENTIONALNATURAL GAS SUPPLIES”, NOVEMBER 200821

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 272energysourcesandsecurityofsupply | STATUS OF GLOBAL FUEL SUPPLIEStable 2.2: assumptionsonworldwidefossilfueluseintheenergy[r]evolutionscenarioOilReference [PJ]Reference [million barrels]E[R] [PJ]E[R] [million barrels]Adv E[R] [PJ]Adv E[R] [million barrels]GasReference [PJ]Reference [billion cubic metres = 10E9m 3 ]E[R] [PJ]E[R] [billion cubic metres = 10E9m 3 ]Adv E[R] [PJ]Adv E[R] [billion cubic metres = 10E9m 3 ]2007155,92025,4772015161,84726,446153,26725,044152,85724,9772020170,16427,805143,59923,464142,74723,3252030192,43131,443123,75620,222115,00218,7912007201520202030104,845 112,931 121,148 141,7062,7592,972 3,1883,729116,974 121,646 122,3373,078 3,2013,219118,449 119,675 114,1223,117 3,1493,0032040209,05634,159101,18616,53481,60813,3352040155,0154,07999,4502,61779,5472,0932050224,98336,76281,83313,37151,7708,4592050166,4874,38171,3831,87834,285902Coal200720152020203020402050Reference [PJ]135,890162,859162,859204,231217,356225,245Reference [million tonnes]7,3198,3068,3069,88210,40810,751E[R] [PJ]140,862140,86296,84664,28537,563E[R] [million tonnes]7,2177,2174,4072,8101,631Adv E[R] [PJ]135,005135,00569,87128,6527,501Adv E[R] [million tonnes]6,8296,8293,1261,250326nuclearUranium, the fuel used in nuclear power plants, is a finite resourcewhose economically available reserves are limited. Its distribution isalmost as concentrated as oil and does not match globalconsumption. Five countries - Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan,Russia and Niger - control three quarters of the world’s supply.As a significant user of uranium, however, Russia’s reserves will beexhausted within ten years.Secondary sources, such as old deposits, currently make up nearlyhalf of worldwide uranium reserves. These will soon be used up,however. Mining capacities will have to be nearly doubled in thenext few years to meet current needs.A joint report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and theInternational Atomic Energy Agency 16 estimates that all existingnuclear power plants will have used up their nuclear fuel, employingcurrent technology, within less than 70 years. Given the range ofscenarios for the worldwide development of nuclear power, it islikely that uranium supplies will be exhausted sometime between2026 and 2070. This forecast includes the use of mixed oxide fuel(MOX), a mixture of uranium and plutonium.16‘URANIUM 2003: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND’22

image PLATFORM/OIL RIG DUNLIN IN THE NORTH SEA SHOWING OIL POLLUTION.image ON A LINFEN STREET, TWO MEN LOAD UP A CART WITH COAL THAT WILL BEUSED FOR COOKING. LINFEN, A CITY OF ABOUT 4.3 MILLION, IS ONE OF THE MOSTPOLLUTED CITIES IN THE WORLD. CHINA’S INCREASINGLY POLLUTED ENVIRONMENTIS LARGELY A RESULT OF THE COUNTRY’S RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND CONSEQUENTLYA LARGE INCREASE IN PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION, WHICH IS ALMOST ENTIRELYPRODUCED BY BURNING COAL.renewableenergyNature offers a variety of freely available options for producingenergy. Their exploitation is mainly a question of how to convertsunlight, wind, biomass or water into electricity, heat or power asefficiently, sustainably and cost-effectively as possible.On average, the energy in the sunshine that reaches the earth is aboutone kilowatt per square metre worldwide. According to the ResearchAssociation for Solar Power, power is gushing from renewable energysources at a rate of 2,850 times more energy than is needed in theworld. In one day, the sunlight which reaches the earth producesenough energy to satisfy the world’s current power requirements foreight years. Even though only a percentage of that potential istechnically accessible, this is still enough to provide just under sixtimes more power than the world currently requires.Before looking at the part renewable energies can play in the rangeof scenarios in this report, however, it is worth understanding theupper limits of their potential. To start with, the overall technicalpotential of renewable energy – the amount that can be producedtaking into account the primary resources, the socio-geographicalconstraints and the technical losses in the conversion process – ishuge and several times higher than current total energy demand.Assessments of the global technical potential vary significantly from2,477 Exajoules per annum (EJ/a) (Nitsch 2004) up to 15,857 EJ/a(UBA 2009). Based on the global primary energy demand in 2007(IEA 2009) of 503 EJ/a, the total technical potential of renewableenergy sources at the upper limit would exceed demand by a factor of32. However, barriers to the growth of renewable energy technologiesmay come from economical, political and infrastructural constraints.That is why the technical potential will never be realised in total.Assessing long term technical potentials is subject to variousuncertainties. The distribution of the theoretical resources, such as theglobal wind speed or the productivity of energy crops, is not alwayswell analysed. The geographical availability is subject to variationssuch as land use change, future planning decisions on where certaintechnologies are allowed, and accessibility of resources, for exampleunderground geothermal energy. Technical performance may takelonger to achieve than expected. There are also uncertainties in termsof the consistency of the data provided in studies, and underlyingassumptions are often not explained in detail.The meta study by the DLR (German Aerospace Center), WuppertalInstitute and Ecofys, commissioned by the German FederalEnvironment Agency, provides a comprehensive overview of thetechnical renewable energy potential by technologies and world region. 18This survey analysed ten major studies of global and regional potentialsby organisations such as the United Nations Development Programmeand a range of academic institutions. Each of the major renewableenergy sources was assessed, with special attention paid to the effect ofenvironmental constraints on their overall potential. The study providesdata for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 (see Table 2.3).The complexity of calculating renewable energy potentials isparticularly great because these technologies are comparatively youngand their exploitation involves changes to the way in which energy isboth generated and distributed. Whilst a calculation of the theoreticaland geographical potentials has only a few dynamic parameters, thetechnical potential is dependent on a number of uncertainties.© GP/LANGERdefinitionoftypesofenergyresourcepotential 17theoretical potential The theoretical potential identifies thephysical upper limit of the energy available from a certain source.For solar energy, for example, this would be the total solarradiation falling on a particular surface.conversion potential This is derived from the annual efficiency ofthe respective conversion technology. It is therefore not a strictlydefined value, since the efficiency of a particular technologydepends on technological progress.technical potential This takes into account additional restrictionsregarding the area that is realistically available for energygeneration. Technological, structural and ecological restrictions,as well as legislative requirements, are accounted for.economic potential The proportion of the technical potential thatcan be utilised economically. For biomass, for example, thosequantities are included that can be exploited economically incompetition with other products and land uses.sustainable potential This limits the potential of an energy sourcebased on evaluation of ecological and socio-economic factors.figure 2.1: energyresourcesoftheworldsource WBGUENERGYRESOURCESOF THE WORLDSOLAR ENERGY2850 TIMESWIND ENERGY200 TIMESHYDROPOWER1 TIMESPOTENTIAL OF RENEWABLEENERGY SOURCES ALL RENEWABLEENERGY SOURCES PROVIDE 3078TIMES THE CURRENT GLOBALENERGY NEEDSGEOTHERMALENERGY 5 TIMESWAVE-TIDALENERGY 2 TIMESBIOMASS20 TIMES17WBGU (GERMAN ADVISORY COUNCIL ON GLOBAL CHANGE).18DLR, WUPPERTAL INSTITUTE, ECOFYS, ‘ROLE AND POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLEENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOR GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY’,COMMISSIONED BYGERMAN FEDERAL ENVIRONMENT AGENCY, FKZ 3707 41 108, MARCH 2009;© N. BEHRING-CHISHOLM/GP232energysourcesandsecurityofsupply | STATUS OF GLOBAL FUEL SUPPLIES

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 272energysourcesandsecurityofsupply | THE GLOBAL POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE BIOMASStable 2.3: technicalpotentialbyrenewableenergytechnologyfor2020,2030and2050World 2020World 2030World 2050World energy demand 2007: 502.9 EJ/a aTechnical potential in 2050 versusworld primary energy demand 2007.1,125.91,351.01,688.83.45,156.16,187.38,043.516.0source DLR, WUPPERTAL INSTITUTE, ECOFYS; ROLE AND POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOR GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY; COMMISSIONED BY THEGERMAN FEDERAL ENVIRONMENT AGENCY FKZ 3707 41 108, MARCH 2009; POTENTIAL VERSUS ENERGY DEMAND: S. TESKEaIEA 2009A technology breakthrough, for example, could have a dramaticimpact, changing the technical potential assessment within a veryshort time frame. Considering the huge dynamic of technologydevelopment, many existing studies are based on out of dateinformation. The estimates in the DLR study could therefore beupdated using more recent data, for example significantly increasedaverage wind turbine capacity and output, which would increase thetechnical potentials still further.Given the large unexploited resources which exist, even withouthaving reached the full development limits of the varioustechnologies, it can be concluded that the technical potential is nota limiting factor to expansion of renewable energy generation.It will not be necessary to exploit the entire technical potential,however, nor would this be unproblematic. Implementation ofrenewable energies has to respect sustainability criteria in order toachieve a sound future energy supply. Public acceptance is crucial,especially bearing in mind that the decentralised character of manyrenewable energy technologies will move their operation closer toconsumers. Without public acceptance, market expansion will bedifficult or even impossible. The use of biomass, for example, hasbecome controversial in recent years as it is seen as competing withother land uses, food production or nature conservation.Sustainability criteria will have a huge influence on whether bioenergyin particular can play a central role in future energy supply.As important as the technical potential of worldwide renewableenergy sources is their market potential. This term is often used indifferent ways. The general understanding is that market potentialmeans the total amount of renewable energy that can beimplemented in the market taking into account the demand forenergy, competing technologies, any subsidies available as well asthe current and future costs of renewable energy sources. Themarket potential may therefore in theory be larger than theeconomic potential. To be realistic, however, market potentialanalyses have to take into account the behaviour of privateeconomic agents under specific prevailing conditions, which are ofcourse partly shaped by public authorities. The energy policyframework in a particular country or region will have a profoundimpact on the expansion of renewable energies.24SOLARCSPSOLARPVHYDROPOWER47.548.550.00.1TECHNICAL POTENTIAL ELECTRICITYEJ/YEAR ELECTRIC POWERWINDON-SHORE368.6361.7378.90.8WINDOFF-SHORE25.635.957.40.1OCEANENERGY66.2165.6331.20.7GEO-THERMALELECTRIC4.513.444.80.1TECHNICAL POTENTIALHEAT EJ/AGEO-THERMALDIRECT USES498.51,486.64,955.29.9SOLARWATERHEATING113.1117.3123.4theglobalpotentialforsustainablebiomassAs part of background research for the Energy [R]evolutionScenarios, Greenpeace commissioned the German Biomass ResearchCentre, the former Institute for Energy and Environment, toinvestigate the worldwide potential for energy crops up to 2050. Inaddition, information has been compiled from scientific studies of theglobal potential and from data derived from state of the art remotesensing techniques, such as satellite images. A summary of the report’sfindings is given below; references can be found in the full report. 19assessmentofbiomasspotentialstudiesVarious studies have looked historically at the potential for bioenergy and come up with widely differing results. Comparisonbetween them is difficult because they use different definitions ofthe various biomass resource fractions. This problem is particularlysignificant in relation to forest derived biomass. Most research hasfocused almost exclusively on energy crops, as their development isconsidered to be more significant for satisfying the demand for bioenergy. The result is that the potential for using forest residues(wood left over after harvesting) is often underestimated.Data from 18 studies has been examined, with a concentration onthose which report the potential for biomass residues. Among thesethere were ten comprehensive assessments with more or lessdetailed documentation of the methodology. The majority focus onthe long-term potential for 2050 and 2100. Little information isavailable for 2020 and 2030. Most of the studies were publishedwithin the last ten years. Figure 2.3 shows the variations inpotential by biomass type from the different studies.Looking at the contribution of different types of material to the totalbiomass potential, the majority of studies agree that the most promisingresource is energy crops from dedicated plantations. Only six give aregional breakdown, however, and only a few quantify all types of residuesseparately. Quantifying the potential of minor fractions, such as animalresidues and organic wastes, is difficult as the data is relatively poor.0.2TECHNICALPOTENTIAL PRIMARYENERGY EJ/ABIOMASSRESIDUES58.668.387.60.2BIOMASSENERGYCROPS43.461.196.50.2TOTAL7,5059,89715,85719SEIDENBERGER T., THRÄN D., OFFERMANN R., SEYFERT U., BUCHHORN M. ANDZEDDIES J. (2008). GLOBAL BIOMASS POTENTIALS. INVESTIGATION AND ASSESSMENT OFDATA. REMOTE SENSING IN BIOMASS POTENTIAL RESEARCH. COUNTRY-SPECIFICENERGY CROP POTENTIAL. GERMAN BIOMASS RESEARCH CENTRE(DBFZ). FOR GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL. 137 P.32

image SOLON AG PHOTOVOLTAICS FACILITY IN ARNSTEIN OPERATING 1,500HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL SOLAR “MOVERS”. LARGEST TRACKING SOLAR FACILITYIN THE WORLD. EACH “MOVER” CAN BE BOUGHT AS A PRIVATE INVESTMENT FROMTHE S.A.G. SOLARSTROM AG, BAYERN, GERMANY.image WIND ENERGY PARK NEAR DAHME. WIND TURBINE IN THE SNOW OPERATED BY VESTAS.figure 2.2: rangesofpotentialfordifferentbiomasstypesno year 2020-30 2050 2100energy cropsresiduesenergy cropsannual forest growthanimal residuesforest residuescrop residuesenergy cropsanimal residuesforest residuescrop residuesenergy cropsresiduesenergy cropsannual forest growth0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400source GERMAN BIOMASS RESEARCH CENTRE (DBFZ)EJ/yr© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GPfigure 2.3: bioenergypotentialanalysisfromdifferentauthors(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)1,4001,2001,000800600400200EJ/yr 0Hall et al,1993Kaltschmittand Hartmann,2001Dessus et al1993Bauen et al,2004Smeets et al,2007a (low,own calc.)No year 2020-302050OECD NORTH AMERICAOECD EUROPEOECD PACIFICCIS AND NON OECD EUROPECARIBBEAN AND LATIN AMERICA• ASIAAFRICASmeets et al, Fischer & Fischer &2007a (high, Schrattenhozer, Schrattenhozer,own calc.)2001(low, own 2001(high,calc.) own calc.)© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP2energysourcesandsecurityofsupply | POTENTIAL OF ENERGY CROPSsource GERMAN BIOMASS RESEARCH CENTRE (DBFZ)potentialofenergycropsApart from the utilisation of biomass from residues, the cultivationof energy crops in agricultural production systems is of greatestsignificance in several regions of the world. The technical potentialfor growing energy crops has been calculated on the assumptionthat demand for food takes priority. As a first step the demand forarable and grassland for food production has been calculated foreach of 133 countries in different scenarios. These scenarios are:• Business as usual (BAU) scenario: Present agricultural activitycontinues for the foreseeable future• Basic scenario: No forest clearing; reduced use of fallow areasfor agriculture• Sub-scenario 1: Basic scenario plus expanded ecologicalprotection areas and reduced crop yields• Sub-scenario 2: Basic scenario plus food consumption reducedin industrialised countries• Sub-scenario 3: Combination of sub-scenarios 1 and 2In a next step the surpluses of agricultural areas were classifiedeither as arable land or grassland. On grassland, hay and grasssilage are produced, on arable land fodder silage and ShortRotation Coppice (such as fast-growing willow or poplar) arecultivated. Silage of green fodder and grass are assumed to be usedfor biogas production, wood from SRC and hay from grasslands forthe production of heat, electricity and synthetic fuels. Countryspecific yield variations were taken into consideration.The result is that the global biomass potential from energy crops in2050 falls within a range from 6 EJ in Sub-scenario 1 up to 97 EJin the BAU scenario.The best example of a country which would see a very differentfuture under these scenarios in 2050 is Brazil. Under the BAUscenario large agricultural areas would be released bydeforestation, whereas in the Basic and Sub 1 scenarios this wouldbe forbidden, and no agricultural areas would be available forenergy crops. By contrast a high potential would be available underSub-scenario 2 as a consequence of reduced meat consumption.Because of their high populations and relatively small agriculturalareas, no surplus land is available for energy crop production inCentral America, Asia and Africa. The EU, North America andAustralia, however, have relatively stable potentials.25

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 272energysourcesandsecurityofsupply | POTENTIAL OF ENERGY CROPSThe results of this exercise show that the availability of biomassresources is not only driven by the effect on global food supplybut the conservation of natural forests and other biospheres.So the assessment of future biomass potential is only the startingpoint of a discussion about the integration of bioenergy intoa renewable energy system.figure 2.4: worldwideenergycroppotentialsindifferentscenarios100,00090,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ 0BAU scenarioBasic scenarioSub scenario 1Sub scenario 2Sub scenario 3BAU scenarioBasic scenarioSub scenario 1Sub scenario 2Sub scenario 3BAU scenarioBasic scenarioSub scenario 1Sub scenario 2The total global biomass potential (energy crops and residues)therefore ranges in 2020 from 66 EJ (Sub-scenario 1) up to 110EJ (Sub-scenario 2) and in 2050 from 94 EJ (Sub-scenario 1) to184 EJ (BAU scenario). These numbers are conservative andinclude a level of uncertainty, especially for 2050. The reasons forthis uncertainty are the potential effects of climate change, possiblechanges in the worldwide political and economic situation, a higheryield as a result of changed agricultural techniques and/or fasterdevelopment in plant breeding.Sub scenario 3BAU scenarioBasic scenarioSub scenario 1Sub scenario 2Sub scenario 3• BIOGAS• SRC• HAY2010 2015 2020 2050The Energy [R]evolution takes a precautionary approach to thefuture use of biofuels. This reflects growing concerns about thegreenhouse gas balance of many biofuel sources, and also the risksposed by expanded bio fuels crop production to biodiversity(forests, wetlands and grasslands) and food security. In particular,research commissioned by Greenpeace in the development of theEnergy [R]evolution suggests that there will be acute pressure onland for food production and habitat protection in 2050. As aresult, the Energy [R]evolution does not include any biofuels fromenergy crops at 2050, restricting feedstocks to a limited quantity offorest and agricultural residues. It should be stressed, however, thatthis conservative approach is based on an assessment of today’stechnologies and their associated risks. The development ofadvanced forms of biofuels which do not involve significant landtake,are demonstrably sustainable in terms of their impacts on thewider environment, and have clear greenhouse gas benefits, shouldbe an objective of public policy, and would provide additionalflexibility in the renewable energy mix.Concerns have also been raised about how countries account for theemissions associated with biofuels production and combustion. Thelifecycle emissions of different biofuels can vary enormously. Rulesdeveloped under the Kyoto Protocol mean that under manycircumstances, countries are not held responsible for all the emissionsassociated with land-use change or management. At the same time,under the Kyoto Protocol and associated instruments such as theEuropean Emissions Trading scheme, biofuels is ‘zero-rated’ foremissions as an energy source. To ensure that biofuels are producedand used in ways which maximize its greenhouse gas saving potential,these accounting problems will need to be resolved in future.26

scenariosforafutureenergysupplySCENARIO BACKGROUNDMAIN SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONSPOPULATION DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC GROWTHOIL & GAS PRICE PROJECTIONSCOST OF CO2 EMISSIONSCOST PROJECTIONSSUMMARY OF RENEWABLE ENERGYCOST DEVELOPMENTASSUMED GROWTH RATES INDIFFERENT SCENARIOSimage WIND TURBINE IN SAMUT SAKHON, THAILAND. © GP/VINAI DITHAJOHN“weknowthepriceofwindisnotgoingto“thetechnologychangebetweennowishere,allweneedand2020fromitsispoliticalwill.”currentlevelofzero.”CHRIS JONESSUPORTER AUSTRALIAEAMON RYANMINISTER FOR COMMUNICATIONS, ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES, IRELAND27

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 273scenariosforafutureenergysupply | SCENARIO BACKGROUNDMoving from principles to action on energy supply and climatechange mitigation requires a long-term perspective. Energyinfrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies taketime to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to takeeffect. Any analysis that seeks to tackle energy and environmentalissues therefore needs to look ahead at least half a century.Scenarios are important in describing possible development paths,to give decision-makers an overview of future perspectives and toindicate how far they can shape the future energy system. Threedifferent kinds of scenarios are used here to characterise the widerange of possible pathways for a future energy supply system: aReference scenario, reflecting a continuation of current trends andpolicies, and two Energy [R]evolution scenarios, which are designedto achieve a set of dedicated environmental policy targets.The Reference scenario is based on the reference scenario publishedby the International Energy Agency (IEA) in World Energy Outlook2009 (WEO 2009). 20 This only takes existing international energy andenvironmental policies into account. Its assumptions include, forexample, continuing progress in electricity and gas market reforms, theliberalisation of cross-border energy trade and recent policies designedto combat environmental pollution. The Reference scenario does notinclude additional policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As theIEA’s projection only covers a time horizon up to 2030, it has alsobeen extended by extrapolating its key macroeconomic and energyindicators forward to 2050. This provides a baseline for comparisonwith the Energy [R]evolution scenarios.The basic Energy [R]evolution scenario has a key target toreduce EU wide carbon dioxide emissions down to a level of around970 million tonnes per year by 2050 in order to keep the increasein global temperature under +2°C. A second objective is thephasing out of nuclear energy. First published in 2007, thenupdated and expanded in 2008, this latest revision also serves as abaseline for the more ambitious “advanced” Energy [R]evolutionscenario. To achieve its targets, the scenario is characterised bysignificant efforts to fully exploit the large potential for energyefficiency, using currently available best practice technology. At thesame time, all cost-effective renewable energy sources are used forheat and electricity generation as well as the production of biofuels. The general framework parameters for population and GDPgrowth remain unchanged from the Reference Scenario.The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario is aimed at an evenstronger decrease in CO2 emissions (195 million tonnes in 2050),especially given the uncertainty that even 970 Megatonnes might betoo much to keep global temperature rises at bay. All generalframework parameters such as population and economic growthremain unchanged. The efficiency pathway for industry and “othersectors” is also the same as in the basic Energy [R]evolutionscenario. What is different is that the advanced scenario incorporatesa stronger effort to develop better technologies to achieve CO2reduction. So the transport sector factors in lower demand(compared to the basic scenario), resulting from a change in drivingpatterns and a faster uptake of efficient combustion vehicles and –after 2025 – a larger share of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.28Given the enormous and diverse potential for renewable power, theadvanced scenario also foresees a shift in the use of renewablesfrom power to heat. Assumptions for the heating sector thereforeinclude a faster expansion of the use of district heat and hydrogenand more electricity for process heat in the industry sector. Moregeothermal heat pumps are also used, which leads – combined witha larger share of electric drives in the transport sector – to a higheroverall electricity demand. In addition a faster expansion of solarand geothermal heating systems is assumed.In all sectors, the latest market development projections of therenewables industry 21 have been taken into account (see Table 3.12Annual growth rates of RE energy technologies). A shorteroperational lifetime for coal power plants, of 20 instead of 40years, has been assumed in order to allow a faster uptake ofrenewables. The speedier introduction of electric vehicles, combinedwith the implementation of smart grids and faster expansion ofsuper grids (about ten years ahead of the basic Energy [R]evolutionscenario) - allows a higher share of variable renewable powergeneration (photovoltaics and wind) to be employed. The 60%mark for the proportion of renewables in the EU wide energysupply is therefore passed before 2040 (also ten years ahead),reaching a total share of 92% in 2050.The available quantities of biomass and large hydro power remain thesame in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, for reasons of sustainability.These scenarios by no means claim to predict the future; they simplydescribe three potential development pathways out of the broadrange of possible ‘futures’. The Energy [R]evolution scenarios aredesigned to indicate the efforts and actions required to achieve theirambitious objectives and to illustrate the options we have at hand tochange our energy supply system into one that is sustainable.scenariobackgroundAs energy is traded on global markets, a global market perspective isneeded. The present report is based on the global version of the Energy[R]evolution report. The main scenario assumptions of the globalenergy outlook are explained in the following paragraphs.The scenariosin this report were jointly commissioned by Greenpeace and theEuropean Renewable Energy Council from the Institute of TechnicalThermodynamics, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR). Thesupply scenarios were calculated using the MESAP/PlaNet simulationmodel adopted in the previous Energy [R]evolution studies. 22 Somedetailed analyses carried out during preparation of the 2008 Energy[R]evolution study were also used as input to this update. The energydemand projections were developed for the 2008 study by EcofysNetherlands, based on an analysis of the future potential for energyefficiency measures. The biomass potential, judged according toGreenpeace sustainability criteria, has been developed especially for thisscenario by the German Biomass Research Centre. The futuredevelopment pathway for car technologies is based on a special reportproduced in 2008 by the Institute of Vehicle Concepts, DLR forGreenpeace International. These studies are described briefly below.references20INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, ‘WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2007’, 200721SEE EREC, RE-THINKING 2050, GWEC, EPIA ET AL22‘ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK’, GREENPEACEINTERNATIONAL, 2007 AND 2008

• Energy efficiency study. The aim of the Ecofys study was todevelop a low energy demand scenario for the period 2005 to 2050covering the world regions as defined in the IEA’s World EnergyOutlook report series. Calculations were made for each decadefrom 2010 onwards. Energy demand was split up into electricityand fuels. The sectors which were taken into account were industry,transport and ‘other’ consumers, including households and services.Under the low energy demand scenario, worldwide final energydemand is reduced by 38% in 2050 in comparison to theReference scenario, resulting in a final energy demand of 376 EJ(ExaJoules). The energy savings are fairly equally distributed overthe three sectors of industry, transport and other uses. The mostimportant energy saving options are efficient passenger and freighttransport and improved heat insulation and building design. Theresulting demand projections of this study have been updated onthe basis of the reference scenario fromIEA´s World EnergyOutlook 2009.• The future for cars. The Institute of Vehicle Concepts inStuttgart, Germany has developed a global scenario for light dutyvehicles (LDV) covering ten world regions. The aim was to producea demanding but feasible scenario to lower global CO2 emissionsfrom LDVs within the context of the overall objectives of thisreport. The approach takes into account a vast range of technicalmeasures to reduce the energy consumption of vehicles, but alsoconsiders the dramatic increase in vehicle ownership and annualmileage taking place in developing countries. The major parametersare vehicle technology, alternative fuels, changes in sales ofdifferent vehicle sizes (segment split) and changes in vehiclekilometres travelled (modal split). The scenario assumes that alarge share of renewable electricity will be available in the future.A combination of ambitious efforts towards higher efficiency invehicle technologies, a major switch to grid-connected electricvehicles and incentives for vehicle users to save carbon dioxidelead to the conclusion that it is possible to reduce LDV CO2emissions from ‘well-to-wheel’ in 2050 by roughly 25% 23compared to 1990 and 40% compared to 2005. By 2050, in thisscenario, 60% of the final energy used in road transport will stillcome from fossil sources, mainly gasoline and diesel. Renewableelectricity will cover 25%, bio fuels 13% and hydrogen 2%.Total energy consumption will be reduced by 17% in 2050compared to 2005, however, in spite of enormous increases infuel use in some regions of the world. The peak in global CO2emissions from transport occurs between 2010 and 2015. From2010 onwards, new legislation in the US and Europe willcontribute to breaking the upwards trend. From 2020, the effectof introducing grid-connected electric cars can be clearly seen.This study still forms the basis for the LDV development pathwayin the updated Energy [R]evolution scenarios, but has beenmodified on the basis of changed statistical data for the newreference year 2007 as well as changes in the reference scenariofrom IEA´s World Energy Outlook 2009.image A WORKER SURVEYS THE EQUIPMENT ATANDASOL 1 SOLAR POWER STATION, WHICH IS EUROPE’SFIRST COMMERCIAL PARABOLIC TROUGH SOLAR POWERPLANT. ANDASOL 1 WILL SUPPLY UP TO 200,000 PEOPLEWITH CLIMATE-FRIENDLY ELECTRICITY AND SAVEABOUT 149,000 TONNES OF CARBON DIOXIDE PER YEARCOMPARED WITH A MODERN COAL POWER PLANT.• The global potential for sustainable bio energy. As part of theEnergy [R]evolution scenario, Greenpeace also commissioned theGerman Biomass Research Centre (the former Institute forEnergy and Environment) to look at the worldwide potential forenergy crops up to 2050. A summary of this report can be foundin Chapter 2.mainscenarioassumptionsDevelopment of a global energy scenario requires the use of amulti-region model in order to reflect the significant structuraldifferences between different countries’ energy supply systems. TheInternational Energy Agency breakdown of world regions, as usedin the ongoing series of World Energy Outlook reports, has beenchosen because the IEA also provides the most comprehensiveglobal energy statistics. 24 In line with WEO 2009, this new editionmaintains the ten region approach. The definitions of the ten worldregions are shown in Figure 3.1.1.populationdevelopmentOne important underlying factor in energy scenario building isfuture population development. Population growth affects the sizeand composition of energy demand, directly and through its impacton economic growth and development. World Energy Outlook 2009uses the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)projections for population development. For this study the mostrecent population projections from UNDP up to 2050 are applied. 25Table 3.1 shows that, based on UNDP’s 2009 assessment, the world’spopulation is expected to grow by 0.86 % on average over the period2007 to 2050, from 6.7 billion people in 2007 to more than 9.1billion by 2050. Population growth will slow over the projectionperiod, from 1.2% per year during 2007-2010 to 0.4% per yearduring 2040-2050. The updated projections show a small decrease inpopulation by 2050 of around 19 million compared to the previousedition. This will scarcely reduce the demand for energy. Thepopulation of the developing regions will continue to grow mostrapidly. The Transition Economies will face a continuous decline,followed after a short while by the OECD Pacific countries. OECDEurope and OECD North America are expected to maintain theirpopulation, with a peak in around 2020/2030 and a slight declineafterwards. The share of the population living in today’s non-OECDcountries will increase from the current 82% to 85% in 2050.China’s contribution to world population will drop from 20% todayto 16% in 2050. Africa will remain the region with the highestgrowth rate, leading to a share of 22% of world population in 2050.Satisfying the energy needs of a growing population in the developingregions of the world in an environmentally friendly manner is a keychallenge for achieving a global sustainable energy supply.references23THERE IS NO RELIABLE NUMBER AVAILABLE FOR GLOBAL LDV EMISSIONS IN 1990,SO A ROUGH ESTIMATE HAS BEEN MADE.24‘ENERGY BALANCE OF NON-OECD COUNTRIES’ AND ‘ENERGY BALANCE OF OECDCOUNTRIES’, IEA, 2009.25‘WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS: THE 2008 REVISION’, UNITED NATIONS,POPULATION DIVISION, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS (UNDP), 2009.© GP/MARKEL REDONDO293scenariosforafutureenergysupply | MAIN SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 273scenariosforafutureenergysupply | WORLD REGIONS USED IN SCENARIOfigure 3.1: worldregionsusedinthescenariosBASED ON IEAoecdnorthamericaCanada, Mexico,United StateslatinamericaAntigua and Barbuda,Argentina, Bahamas,Barbados, Belize,Bermuda, Bolivia,Brazil, Chile, Colombia,Costa Rica, Cuba,Dominica, DominicanRepublic, Ecuador, ElSalvador, FrenchGuiana, Grenada,Guadeloupe,Guatemala, Guyana,Haiti, Honduras,Jamaica, Martinique,Netherlands Antilles,Nicaragua, Panama,Paraguay, Peru, St.Kitts-Nevis-Anguila,Saint Lucia, St. Vincentand Grenadines,Suriname, Trinidad andTobago, Uruguay,VenezuelaoecdeuropeAustria, Belgium,Czech Republic,Denmark, Finland,France, Germany,Greece, Hungary,Iceland, Ireland, Italy,Luxembourg, theNetherlands, Norway,Poland, Portugal,Slovak Republic, Spain,Sweden, Switzerland,Turkey, United KingdomafricaAlgeria, Angola, Benin,Botswana, BurkinaFaso, Burundi,Cameroon, Cape Verde,Central AfricanRepublic, Chad,Comoros, Congo,Democratic Republic ofCongo, Cote d’Ivoire,Djibouti, Egypt,Equatorial Guinea,Eritrea, Ethiopia,Gabon, Gambia, Ghana,Guinea, Guinea-Bissau,Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia,Libya, Madagascar,Malawi, Mali,Mauritania, Mauritius,Morocco, Mozambique,Namibia, Niger, Nigeria,Reunion, Rwanda, SaoTome and Principe,Senegal, Seychelles,Sierra Leone, Somalia,South Africa, Sudan,Swaziland, UnitedRepublic of Tanzania,Togo, Tunisia, Uganda,Zambia, ZimbabwemiddleeastBahrain, Iran, Iraq,Israel, Jordan, Kuwait,Lebanon, Oman,Qatar, Saudi Arabia,Syria, United ArabEmirates, YemenindiaIndiachinaPeople’s Republicof China includingHong KongdevelopingasiaAfghanistan,Bangladesh, Bhutan,Brunei, Cambodia,Chinese Taipei, Fiji,French Polynesia,Indonesia, Kiribati,Democratic People’sRepublic of Korea,Laos, Macao, Malaysia,Maldives, Mongolia,Myanmar, Nepal, NewCaledonia, Pakistan,Papua New Guinea,Philippines, Samoa,Singapore, SolomonIslands, Sri Lanka,Thailand, Vietnam,VanuatutransitioneconomiesAlbania, Armenia,Azerbaijan, Belarus,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Bulgaria, Croatia,Estonia, Serbia andMontenegro, formerRepublic of Macedonia,Georgia, Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan, Latvia,Lithuania, Moldova,Romania, Russia,Slovenia, Tajikistan,Turkmenistan, Ukraine,Uzbekistan, Cyprus* ,Malta*oecdpacificAustralia, Japan, Korea(South), New Zealand* CYPRUS AND MALTA ARE ALLOCATED TO THE TRANSITION ECONOMIES FOR STATISTICAL REASONS30

2.economicgrowthEconomic growth is a key driver for energy demand. Since 1971,each 1% increase in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has beenaccompanied by a 0.6% increase in primary energy consumption.The decoupling of energy demand and GDP growth is therefore aprerequisite for reducing demand in the future. Most globalenergy/economic/environmental models constructed in the past haverelied on market exchange rates to place countries in a commoncurrency for estimation and calibration. This approach has been thesubject of considerable discussion in recent years, and the alternativeof purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates has been proposed.Purchasing power parities compare the costs in different currenciesof a fixed basket of traded and non-traded goods and services andyield a widely-based measure of the standard of living. This isimportant in analysing the main drivers of energy demand or forcomparing energy intensities among countries.Although PPP assessments are still relatively imprecise compared tostatistics based on national income and product trade and nationalprice indexes, they are considered to provide a better basis for globalscenario development. 26 Thus all data on economic development inWEO 2009 refers to purchasing power adjusted GDP. However, asWEO 2009 only covers the time period up to 2030, the projectionsfor 2030-2050 are based on our own estimates.image A LARGE SOLAR SYSTEM OF 63M 2RISES ON THE ROOF OF A HOTEL INCELERINA, SWITZERLAND. THECOLLECTOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCEHOT WATER AND HEATING SUPPORT ANDCAN SAVE ABOUT 6,000 LITERS OF OILPER YEAR. THUS, THE CO2 EMISSIONSAND COMPANY COSTS CAN BE REDUCED.Prospects for GDP growth have decreased considerably since theprevious study, due to the financial crisis at the beginning of 2009,although underlying growth trends continue much the same. GDPgrowth in all regions is expected to slow gradually over the comingdecades. World GDP is assumed to grow on average by 3.1% peryear over the period 2007-2030, the same annual growth rate thanbetween 1971 and 2007. China and India are expected to growfaster than other regions, followed by the Other Developing Asiacountries, Africa and the Transition Economies. The Chinese economywill slow as it becomes more mature, but will nonetheless become thelargest in the world in PPP terms early in the 2020s. GDP in EU 27is assumed to grow by around 1.5% per year over the projectionperiod until 2050. The OECD share of global PPP-adjusted GDP willdecrease from 55% in 2005 to around 30% in 2050.© GP/EX-PRESS/HEIKE3scenariosforafutureenergysupply | ECONOMIC GROWTHtable 3.1: populationdevelopmentprojections(IN MILLIONS)REGION2007201020152020203020402050World 6,671OECD Europe 540OECD North 449AmericaOECD 200PacificTransition 340EconomiesIndia 1,165China 1,336Other 1,011Developing AsiaLatin462AmericaAfrica 965Middle East 2026,9095484622013391,2141,3611,0564781,0332157,3025584832023391,2941,4031,1315031,1532357,6755665032013371,3671,4391,2035261,2762558,3095755371973311,4851,4711,3335631,5242938,8015785611903211,5651,4641,4395881,7703269,1505755771803111,6141,4261,5166001,998353source UN WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS - 2008 REVISIONreferences26NORDHAUS, W, ‘ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF OUTPUT IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC-ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS: PURCHASING POWER PARITY OR MARKET EXCHANGERATES?’, REPORT PREPARED FOR IPCC EXPERT MEETING ON EMISSION SCENARIOS, US-EPA WASHINGTON DC, JANUARY 12-14, 2005.31

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 273scenariosforafutureenergysupply | OIL AND GAS PROJECTIONS3.oilandgaspriceprojectionsThe recent dramatic fluctuations in global oil prices have resulted inmuch higher forward price projections for fossil fuels. Under the 2004‘high oil and gas price’ scenario from the European Commission, forexample, an oil price of just € 28.1 per barrel was assumed in 2030.More recent projections of oil prices by 2030 in the IEA’s WEO 2009range from € 66/bbl in the lower prices sensitivity case up to € 124/bblin the higher prices sensitivity case. The reference scenario in WEO2009 predicts an oil price of € 95/bbl.Since the first Energy [R]evolution study was published in 2007,however, the actual price of oil has moved over € 82.7/bbl for the firsttime, and in July 2008 reached a record high of more than € 116/bbl.Although oil prices fell back to € 82.7/bbl in September 2008 andaround € 66/bbl in April 2010 the projections in the IEA referencescenario might still be considered too conservative. Taking into accountthe growing global demand for oil we have assumed a pricedevelopment path for fossil fuels based on the IEA WEO 2009 higherprices sensitivity case extrapolated forward to 2050 (see Table 3.2).As the supply of natural gas is limited by the availability of pipelineinfrastructure, there is no world market price for gas. In most regionsof the world the gas price is directly tied to the price of oil. Gas pricesare therefore assumed to increase to € 19.8-24/GJ by 2050.4.costofCO2 emissionsAssuming that a CO2 emissions trading system is established acrossall world regions in the longer term, the cost of CO2 allowancesneeds to be included in the calculation of electricity generationcosts. Projections of emissions costs are even more uncertain thanenergy prices, however, and available studies span a broad range offuture estimates. As in the previous Energy [R]evolution study weassume CO2 costs of € 8.5/tCO2 in 2015, rising to € 41.5/tCO2 by2050. Additional CO2 costs are applied in Kyoto Protocol Non-Annex B (developing) countries only after 2020.table 3.2: developmentprojectionsforfossilfuelpricesin€2005Crude oil importsIEA WEO 2009 “Reference”IEA WEO 2007 / ETP 2008USA EIA 2008 “Reference”USA EIA 2008 “High Price”Energy [R]evolution 2008Energy [R]evolution 2010UNITbarrelbarrelbarrelbarrelbarrelbarrel200028.39200541.38200762.0757.20200880.432010201571.7355.50105.0091.50202082.7657.9099.10110.00107.58202588.96115.86203095.1760.1068.30115.00120.00124.1320402050Natural gas importsIEA WEO 2009 “Reference”United StatesEuropeJapan LNGEnergy [R]evolution 2010United StatesEuropeJapan LNGGJGJGJGJGJGJ4.143.065.051.923.723.741.923.723.742.685.215.242.685.215.247.209.0111.037.209.0111.046.369.1310.406.9311.6213.257.7410.5612.008.8513.7115.598.7611.4312.9510.2614.8916.869.9212.2413.8511.9015.9618.0714.9818.2120.5219.6421.5424.25Hard coal importsOECD steam coal importsEnergy [R]evolution 2010IEA WEO 2009 “Reference”tonnetonne34.1141.0557.4799.8096.1275.35112.0686.20115.4588.65118.0990.54132.41142.59Biomass (solid)Energy [R]evolution 2010OECD EuropeOECD Pacific and North AmericaOther regionsGJGJGJ6.22.72.26.42.82.36.83.12.97.63.12.98.33.63.38.53.93.88.74.34.1source 2000-2030, IEA WEO 2009 HIGHER PRICES SENSITIVITY CASE FOR CRUDE OIL, GAS AND STEAM COAL; 2040-2050 AND OTHER FUELS, OWN ASSUMPTIONS.32

image FIRE BOAT RESPONSE CREWS BATTLE THEBLAZING REMNANTS OF THE OFFSHORE OIL RIGDEEPWATER HORIZON APRIL 21, 2010. MULTIPLE COASTGUARD HELICOPTERS, PLANES AND CUTTERSRESPONDED TO RESCUE THE DEEPWATER HORIZON’S126 PERSON CREW.© THE UNITED STATESCOAST GUARDtable 3.3: assumptionsonCO2 emissionscostdevelopment($/tCO2)COUNTRIES2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Kyoto Annex B countriesNon-Annex B countries5.costprojectionsforefficientfossilfuelgenerationandcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)While the fossil fuel power technologies in use today for coal, gas,lignite and oil are established and at an advanced stage of marketdevelopment, further cost reduction potentials are assumed. Thepotential for cost reductions is limited, however, and will beachieved mainly through an increase in efficiency. 27There is much speculation about the potential for carbon capture andstorage (CCS) to mitigate the effect of fossil fuel consumption onclimate change, even though the technology is still under development.CCS is a means of trapping CO2 from fossil fuels, either before orafter they are burned, and ‘storing’ (effectively disposing of) it inthe sea or beneath the surface of the earth. There are currentlythree different methods of capturing CO2: ‘pre-combustion’, ‘postcombustion’and ‘oxyfuel combustion’. However, development is at avery early stage and CCS will not be implemented - in the best case- before 2020 and will probably not become commercially viable asa possible effective mitigation option until 2030.Cost estimates for CCS vary considerably, depending on factorssuch as power station configuration, technology, fuel costs, size ofproject and location. One thing is certain, however: CCS isexpensive. It requires significant funds to construct the powerstations and the necessary infrastructure to transport and store102020303040405050carbon. The IPCC assesses costs at € 12-62 per ton of capturedCO2 28 , while a recent US Department of Energy report foundinstalling carbon capture systems to most modern plants resulted ina near doubling of costs. 29 These costs are estimated to increase theprice of electricity in a range from 21-91%. 30Pipeline networks will also need to be constructed to move CO2to storage sites. This is likely to require a considerable outlay ofcapital. 31 Costs will vary depending on a number of factors,including pipeline length, diameter and manufacture fromcorrosion-resistant steel, as well as the volume of CO2 to betransported. Pipelines built near population centres or on difficultterrain, such as marshy or rocky ground, are more expensive. 32The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimatesa cost range for pipelines of € 1-7/ton of CO2 transported. Storageand subsequent monitoring and verification costs are estimated torange from € 0.4-7/tCO2 (for storage) and € 0.1-0.25/tCO2(for monitoring). The overall cost of CCS could therefore serveas a major barrier to its deployment. 33For the above reasons, CCS power plants are not included in ourfinancial analysis.Table 3.4 summarises our assumptions on the technical andeconomic parameters of future fossil-fuelled power planttechnologies. In spite of growing raw material prices, we assumethat further technical innovation will result in a moderate reductionof future investment costs as well as improved power plantefficiencies. These improvements are, however, outweighed by theexpected increase in fossil fuel prices, resulting in a significant risein electricity generation costs.3scenariosforafutureenergysupply | COST PROJECTIONStable 3.4: developmentofefficiencyandinvestmentcostsforselectedpowerplanttechnologiesPOWER PLANTPOWER PLANT200720152020203020402050Coal-fired condensing power plantLignite-fired condensing power plantNatural gas combined cycleEfficiency (%)45 46 48 50 52 53Investment costs (€/kW)1,092 1,018 985 960 935 910Electricity generation costs including CO2 emission costs (€cents/kWh)CO2 emissions a) (g/kWh)Efficiency (%)5.5744417.4728438.96974410.367044.511.86444513.063245Investment costs (€/kW)1,299 1,192 1,142 1,117 1,092 1,068Electricity generation costs including CO2 emission costs (€cents/kWh)CO2 emissions a) (g/kWh)Efficiency (%)Investment costs (€/kW)Electricity generation costs including CO2 emission costs (€cents/kWh)CO2 emissions a) (g/kWh)4.9975578076.23545.4929597698.73426.29086175110.53307.08986274312.73257.78886373514.43208.58886473515.6315source DLR, 2010 a) CO2 EMISSIONS REFER TO POWER STATION OUTPUTS ONLY; LIFE-CYCLE EMISSIONS ARE NOT CONSIDERED.references27‘GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL BRIEFING: CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE’,GOERNE, 2007.28ABANADES, J C ET AL., 2005, PG 10.28NATIONAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY LABORATORIES, 2007.30RUBIN ET AL., 2005A, PG 40.31RAGDEN, P ET AL., 2006, PG 18.32HEDDLE, G ET AL., 2003, PG 17.33RUBIN ET AL., 2005B, PG 4444.33

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 273scenariosforafutureenergysupply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES4.costprojectionsforrenewableenergytechnologiesThe range of renewable energy technologies available today displaymarked differences in terms of their technical maturity, costs anddevelopment potential. Whereas hydro power has been widely usedfor decades, other technologies, such as the gasification of biomass,have yet to find their way to market maturity. Some renewablesources by their very nature, including wind and solar power, providea variable supply, requiring a revised coordination with the gridnetwork. But although in many cases these are ‘distributed’technologies - their output being generated and used locally to theconsumer - the future will also see large-scale applications in theform of offshore wind parks, photovoltaic power plants orconcentrating solar power stations.By using the individual advantages of the different technologies, andlinking them with each other, a wide spectrum of available optionscan be developed to market maturity and integrated step by stepinto the existing supply structures. This will eventually provide acomplementary portfolio of environmentally friendly technologiesfor heat and power supply and the provision of transport fuels.Many of the renewable technologies employed today are at arelatively early stage of market development. As a result, the costs ofelectricity, heat and fuel production are generally higher than those ofcompeting conventional systems - a reminder that the external(environmental and social) costs of conventional power productionare not included in market prices. It is expected, however, thatcompared with conventional technologies, large cost reductions canbe achieved through technical advances, manufacturing improvementsand large-scale production. Especially when developing long-termscenarios spanning periods of several decades, the dynamic trend ofcost developments over time plays a crucial role in identifyingeconomically sensible expansion strategies.To identify long-term cost developments, learning curves have beenapplied which reflect the correlation between cumulative productionvolumes of a particular technology and a reduction in its costs. Formany technologies, the learning factor (or progress ratio) falls in therange between 0.75 for less mature systems to 0.95 and higher forwell-established technologies. A learning factor of 0.9 means thatcosts are expected to fall by 10% every time the cumulative outputfrom the technology doubles. Empirical data shows, for example, thatthe learning factor for PV solar modules has been fairly constant at0.8 over 30 years whilst that for wind energy varies from 0.75 in theUK to 0.94 in the more advanced German market.Assumptions on future costs for renewable electricity technologiesin the Energy [R]evolution scenario are derived from a review oflearning curve studies, for example by Lena Neij and others 34 , fromthe analysis of recent technology foresight and road mappingstudies, including the European Commission funded NEEDS project(New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability) 35 or theIEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, projections by theEuropean Renewable Energy Council published in April 2010(“RE-thinking 2050”) and discussions with experts from a widerange of different sectors of the renewable energy industry.34photovoltaics(pv)The worldwide photovoltaics (PV) market has been growing at over35% per annum in recent years and the contribution it can make toelectricity generation is starting to become significant. Theimportance of photovoltaics comes from itsdecentralised/centralised character, its flexibility for use in an urbanenvironment and huge potential for cost reduction. Developmentwork is focused on improving existing modules and systemcomponents by increasing their energy efficiency and reducingmaterial usage. Technologies like PV thin film (using alternativesemiconductor materials) or dye sensitive solar cells are developingquickly and present a huge potential for cost reduction. The maturetechnology crystalline silicon, with a proven lifetime of 30 years, iscontinually increasing its cell and module efficiency (by 0.5%annually), whereas the cell thickness is rapidly decreasing (from230 to 180 microns over the last five years). Commercial moduleefficiency varies from 14 to 21%, depending on silicon quality andfabrication process.The learning factor for PV modules has been fairly constant over thelast 30 years, with a cost reduction of 20% each time the installedcapacity doubles, indicating a high rate of technical learning.Assuming a globally installed capacity of 1,600 GW by between2030 and 2040 in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario, and withan electricity output of 2,600 TWh, we can expect that generationcosts of around 5-10 cents/kWh (depending on the region) will beachieved. During the following five to ten years, PV will becomecompetitive with retail electricity prices in many parts of the world,and competitive with fossil fuel costs by 2030. The advanced Energy[R]evolution version shows faster growth, with PV capacity reaching439 GW by 2020 – ten years ahead of the basic scenario.table 3.5: photovoltaics(pv)costassumptionsEnergy [R]evolution200720152020203020402050Global installed capacity (GW) 6 98 335 1,036 1,915 2,968Investment costs (€/kWp) 3,100 2,160 1,470 850 650 630Operation & maintenance 55 31 13 11 9 8costs (€/kW/a)Advanced Energy [R]evolutionGlobal installed capacity (GW) 6 108 439 1,330 2,959 4,318Investment costs (€/kWp) 3,100 2,160 1,470 850 630 611Operation & maintenance 55 31 13 11 9 8costs (€/kW/a)34NEIJ, L, ‘COST DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES FOR POWER GENERATION -A STUDY BASED ON EXPERIENCE CURVES AND COMPLEMENTARY BOTTOM-UPASSESSMENTS’, ENERGY POLICY 36 (2008), 2200-2211.35WWW.NEEDS-PROJECT.ORG

image AERIAL VIEW OF THE WORLD’SLARGEST OFFSHORE WINDPARKIN THE NORTH SEA HORNS REVIN ESBJERG, DENMARK.© GP/MARTIN ZAKORAconcentratingsolarpowerSolar thermal ‘concentrating’ power stations (CSP) can only usedirect sunlight and are therefore dependent on high irradiationlocations. North Africa, for example, has a technical potentialwhich far exceeds local demand. The various solar thermaltechnologies (parabolic trough, power towers and parabolic dishconcentrators) offer good prospects for further development andcost reductions. Because of their more simple design, ‘Fresnel’collectors are considered as an option for additional cost trimming.The efficiency of central receiver systems can be increased byproducing compressed air at a temperature of up to 1,000°C, whichis then used to run a combined gas and steam turbine.Thermal storage systems are a key component for reducing CSPelectricity generation costs. The Spanish Andasol 1 plant, forexample, is equipped with molten salt storage with a capacity of7.5 hours. A higher level of full load operation can be realised byusing a thermal storage system and a large collector field. Althoughthis leads to higher investment costs, it reduces the cost ofelectricity generation.Depending on the level of irradiation and mode of operation, it isexpected that long term future electricity generation costs of 6-10cents/kWh can be achieved. This presupposes rapid marketintroduction in the next few years.windpowerWithin a short period of time, the dynamic development of windpower has resulted in the establishment of a flourishing globalmarket. While favourable policy incentives have made Europe themain driver for the global wind market, in 2009 more than threequarters of the annual capacity installed was outside Europe.This trend is likely to continue. The boom in demand for wind powertechnology has nonetheless led to supply constraints. As aconsequence, the cost of new systems has increased. Because ofthe continuous expansion of production capacities, the industry isalready resolving the bottlenecks in the supply chain, however.Taking into account market development projections, learning curveanalysis and industry expectations, we assume that investment costsfor wind turbines will reduce by 30% for onshore and 50% foroffshore installations up to 2050.3scenariosforafutureenergysupply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIEStable 3.6: concentratingsolarpower(csp)costassumptionsEnergy [R]evolution200720152020203020402050Global installed capacity (GW) 1 25 105 324 647 1,002Investment costs (€/kW)* 6,000 4,615 4,174 3,528 3,476 3,443Operation & maintenance 248 207 174 149 132 128costs (€/kW/a)Advanced Energy [R]evolutionGlobal installed capacity (GW) 1 28 225 605 1,173 1,643Investment costs (€/kW)* 6,000 4,615 4,174 3,476 3,443 3,410Operation & maintenance 248 207 174 149 132 128costs (€/kW/a)* INCLUDING HIGH TEMPERATURE HEAT STORAGE.table 3.7: windpowercostassumptionsEnergy [R]evolution2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Installed capacity (on+offshore) 95 407 878 1,733 2,409 2,943Wind onshoreInvestment costs (€/kWp) 1,250 1,039 826 788 750 740O&M costs (€/kW/a)48 42 37 36 34 34Wind offshoreInvestment costs (€/kWp) 2,400 1,821 1,274 1,208 1,101 1,080O&M costs (€/kW/a) 137 127 94 80 73 69Advanced Energy [R]evolutionInstalled capacity (on+offshore) 95 494 1,140 2,241 3,054 3,754Wind onshoreInvestment costs (€/kWp) 1,250 1,039 826 750 740 730O&M costs (€/kW/a)48 42 37 36 34 34Wind offshoreInvestment costs (€/kWp) 2,400 1,821 1,274 1,208 1,101 1,080O&M costs (€/kW/a) 137 127 94 80 73 6935

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 273scenariosforafutureenergysupply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIESbiomassThe crucial factor for the economics of biomass utilisation is thecost of the feedstock, which today ranges from a negative cost forwaste wood (based on credit for waste disposal costs avoided)through inexpensive residual materials to the more expensive energycrops. The resulting spectrum of energy generation costs iscorrespondingly broad. One of the most economic options is the useof waste wood in steam turbine combined heat and power (CHP)plants. Gasification of solid biomass, on the other hand, whichopens up a wide range of applications, is still relatively expensive.In the long term it is expected that favourable electricity productioncosts will be achieved by using wood gas both in micro CHP units(engines and fuel cells) and in gas-and-steam power plants. Greatpotential for the utilisation of solid biomass also exists for heatgeneration in both small and large heating centres linked to localheating networks. Converting crops into ethanol and ‘bio diesel’made from rapeseed methyl ester (RME) has become increasinglyimportant in recent years, for example in Brazil, the USA andEurope. Processes for obtaining synthetic fuels from biogenicsynthesis gases will also play a larger role.A large potential for exploiting modern technologies exists in Latinand North America, Europe and the Transition Economies, either instationary appliances or the transport sector. In the long term Europeand the Transition Economies will realise 20-50% of the potentialfor biomass from energy crops, whilst biomass use in all the otherregions will have to rely on forest residues, industrial wood waste andstraw. In Latin America, North America and Africa in particular, anincreasing residue potential will be available.In other regions, such as the Middle East and all Asian regions,increased use of biomass is restricted, either due to a generally lowavailability or already high traditional use. For the latter, usingmodern, more efficient technologies will improve the sustainabilityof current usage and have positive side effects, such as reducingindoor pollution and the heavy workloads currently associated withtraditional biomass use.geothermalGeothermal energy has long been used worldwide for supplyingheat, and since the beginning of the last century for electricitygeneration. Geothermally generated electricity was previouslylimited to sites with specific geological conditions, but furtherintensive research and development work has enabled the potentialareas to be widened. In particular the creation of largeunderground heat exchange surfaces - Enhanced GeothermalSystems (EGS) - and the improvement of low temperature powerconversion, for example with the Organic Rankine Cycle, open upthe possibility of producing geothermal electricity anywhere.Advanced heat and power cogeneration plants will also improve theeconomics of geothermal electricity.As a large part of the costs for a geothermal power plant comefrom deep underground drilling, further development of innovativedrilling technology is expected. Assuming a global average marketgrowth for geothermal power capacity of 9% per year up to 2020,adjusting to 4% beyond 2030, the result would be a cost reductionpotential of 50% by 2050:table 3.8: biomasscostassumptionstable 3.9: geothermalcostassumptionsEnergy [R]evolution200720152020203020402050Energy [R]evolution200720152020203020402050Biomass (electricity only)Geothermal (electricity only)Global installed capacity (GW) 28 48 62 75 87 107Investment costs (€/kW) 2,332 2,029 2,015 1,967 1,944 1,925O&M costs (€/kW/a) 151 137 126 122 122 121Biomass (CHP)Global installed capacity (GW) 10Investment costs (€/kW) 10,300O&M costs (€/kW/a) 534Geothermal (CHP)199,000461367,600354716,0003101145,0002901444,300275Global installed capacity (GW) 18 67 150 261 413 545Investment costs (€/kW) 4,345 3,521 3,080 2,690 2,479 2,355O&M costs (€/kW/a) 334 288 224 195 180 171Global installed capacity (GW) 1Investment costs (€/kW)O&M costs (€/kW/a)10,50053539,200400137,800290376,200243835,2002121344,500193Advanced Energy [R]evolutionAdvanced Energy [R]evolutionBiomass (electricity only)Geothermal (electricity only)Global installed capacity (GW) 28 50 64 78 83 81Investment costs (€/kW) 2,332 2,029 2,015 1,967 1,944 1,925O&M costs (€/kW/a) 151 137 126 122 122 121Biomass (CHP)Global installed capacity (GW) 10Investment costs (€/kW) 10,300O&M costs (€/kW/a) 534Geothermal (CHP)219,000461577,6003541914,3003103373,6982904593,180275Global installed capacity (GW) 18 65 150 265 418 540Investment costs (€/kW) 4,345 3,521 3,080 2,690 2,479 2,355O&M costs (€/kW/a) 334 288 224 195 180 171Global installed capacity (GW) 0Investment costs (€/kW)O&M costs (€/kW/a)10,50053539,200400137,800290476,2002431325,2002122344,50019336

image A COW INFRONT OF ABIOREACTOR IN THE BIOENERGYVILLAGE OF JUEHNDE. IT IS THE FIRSTCOMMUNITY IN GERMANY THATPRODUCES ALL OF ITS ENERGY NEEDEDFOR HEATING AND ELECTRICITY, WITHCO2 NEUTRAL BIOMASS.© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP• for conventional geothermal power, from 5.8 € cents/kWhto about 1.6 € cents/kWh;• for EGS, despite the presently high figures (about16.6 € cents/kWh), electricity production costs - depending onthe payments for heat supply - are expected to come down toaround 4.1 € cents/kWh in the long term.Because of its non-fluctuating supply and a grid load operatingalmost 100% of the time, geothermal energy is considered to be akey element in a future supply structure based on renewablesources. Up to now we have only used a marginal part of thepotential. Shallow geothermal drilling, for example, makes possiblethe delivery of heating and cooling at any time anywhere, and canbe used for thermal energy storage.oceanenergyOcean energy, particularly offshore wave energy, is a significantresource, and has the potential to satisfy an important percentageof electricity supply worldwide. Globally, the potential of oceanenergy has been estimated at around 90,000 TWh/year. The mostsignificant advantages are the vast availability and highpredictability of the resource and a technology with very low visualimpact and no CO2 emissions. Many different concepts and deviceshave been developed, including taking energy from the tides, waves,currents and both thermal and saline gradient resources. Many ofthese are in an advanced phase of R&D, large scale prototypes havebeen deployed in real sea conditions and some have reached premarketdeployment. There are a few grid connected, fullyoperational commercial wave and tidal generating plants.The cost of energy from initial tidal and wave energy farms has beenestimated to be in the range of 15-55 € cents/kWh, and for initialtidal stream farms in the range of 11-22 € cents/kWh. Generationcosts of 10-25 € cents/kWh are expected by 2020. Key areas fordevelopment will include concept design, optimisation of the deviceconfiguration, reduction of capital costs by exploring the use ofalternative structural materials, economies of scale and learning fromoperation. According to the latest research findings, the learningfactor is estimated to be 10-15% for offshore wave and 5-10% fortidal stream. In the medium term, ocean energy has the potential tobecome one of the most competitive and cost effective forms ofgeneration. In the next few years a dynamic market penetration isexpected, following a similar curve to wind energy.Because of the early development stage any future cost estimatesfor ocean energy systems are uncertain. Present cost estimates arebased on analysis from the European NEEDS project. 36hydropowerHydropower is a mature technology with a significant part of itsglobal resource already exploited. There is still, however, somepotential left both for new schemes (especially small scale run-ofriverprojects with little or no reservoir impoundment) and forrepowering of existing sites. The significance of hydropower is alsolikely to be encouraged by the increasing need for flood control andthe maintenance of water supply during dry periods. The future is insustainable hydropower which makes an effort to integrate plantswith river ecosystems while reconciling ecology with economicallyattractive power generation.3scenariosforafutureenergysupply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIEStable 3.10: oceanenergycostassumptionsEnergy [R]evolution200720152020203020402050Global installed capacity (GW) 0 9 29 73 168 303Investment costs (€/kW) 5,972 3,221 2,322 1,786 1,491 1,328Operation & maintenance 298 171 97 74 62 55costs (€/kW/a)Advanced Energy [R]evolutionGlobal installed capacity (GW) 0 9 58 180 425 748Investment costs (€/kW) 5,972 3,221 2,322 1,491 1,328 1,183Operation & maintenance 298 171 97 74 62 55costs (€/kW/a)table 3.11: hydropowercostassumptionsEnergy [R]evolution200720152020203020402050Global installed capacity (GW) 922 1,043 1,206 1,307 1,387 1,438Investment costs (€/kW) 2,239 2,370 2,443 2,553 2,645 2,726Operation & maintenance 91 95 102 106 110 113costs (€/kW/a)Advanced Energy [R]evolutionGlobal installed capacity (GW)Investment costs (€/kW)922 1,111 1,212 1,316 1,406 1,4512,239 2,370 2,443 2,553 2,645 2,726Operation & maintenancecosts (€/kW/a)91 95 102 106 110 11336WWW.NEEDS-PROJECT.ORG37

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 273scenariosforafutureenergysupply | summaryofrenewablecostdevelopemntsummaryofrenewableenergycostdevelopmentFigure 3.2 summarises the cost trends for renewable energytechnologies as derived from the respective learning curves. Itshould be emphasised that the expected cost reduction is basicallynot a function of time, but of cumulative capacity, so dynamicmarket development is required. Most of the technologies will beable to reduce their specific investment costs to between 30% and70% of current levels by 2020, and to between 20% and 60%once they have achieved full maturity (after 2040).Reduced investment costs for renewable energy technologies leaddirectly to reduced heat and electricity generation costs, as shownin Figure 3.3. Generation costs today are around 8 to 22€cents/kWh (10-26 $cents/kWh) for the most importanttechnologies, with the exception of photovoltaics. In the long term,costs are expected to converge at around 4 to 10 €cents/kWh (5-12 $cents/kWh). These estimates depend on site-specific conditionssuch as the local wind regime or solar irradiation, the availability ofbiomass at reasonable prices or the credit granted for heat supplyin the case of combined heat and power generation.figure 3.2: futuredevelopmentofrenewableenergyinvestmentcosts(NORMALISED TO CURRENT COST LEVELS) FORRENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESassumedgrowthratesindifferentscenariosIn scientific literature 37 quantitative scenario modelling approachesare broadly separated into two groups: “top-down” and “bottomup”models. While this classification might have made sense in thepast, it is less appropriate today, since the transition between thetwo categories is continuous, and many models, while being rootedin one of the two traditions - macro-economic or energy-engineering- incorporate aspects from the other approach and thus belong tothe class of so-called hybrid models. 38 In the energy-economicmodelling community, macro-economic approaches are traditionallyclassified as top-down models and energy-engineering models asbottom-up. The Energy [R]evolution scenario is a “bottom-up”(technology driven) scenario and the assumed growth rates forrenewable energy technology deployment are important drivers.Around the world, however, energy modelling scenario tools areunder constant development and in the future both approaches arelikely to merge into one, with detailed tools employing both a highlevel of technical detail and economic optimisation. The Energy[R]evolution scenario uses a “classical” bottom-up model whichhas been constantly developed, and now includes calculationscovering both the investment pathway and the employment effect(see Chapter 4).figure 3.3: expecteddevelopmentofelectricitygenerationcostsfromfossilfuelandrenewableoptionsEXAMPLE FOR OECD NORTH AMERICA12040100803530256020402015105% 02005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050ct/kWh 02005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050PVWIND ONSHOREWIND OFFSHOREBIOMASS POWER PLANTBIOMASS CHPGEOTHERMAL CHP•CONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMALOCEAN ENERGYPVWINDBIOMASS CHP•GEOTHERMAL CHPCONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMAL37HERZOG ET AL., 2005; BARKER ET AL., 2007.38VAN VUUREN ET AL.; HOURCADE ET AL., 2006.38

image CONSTRUCTIONOF WIND TURBINES.© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GPtable 3.12: assumedglobalaverageannualgrowthratesforrenewabletechnologiesREF202020302050SolarPV-2020PV-2030PV-2050CSP-2020CSP-2030CSP-2050WindOn+Offshore-2020On+Offshore-2030On+Offshore-2050Geothermal2020 (power generation)2030 (power generation)2050 (power generation)2020 (heat&power)2030 (heat&power)2050 (heat&power)ENERGY PARAMETERGENERATION (TWh/a)REF27,24834,30746,542E[R]25,85130,13337,993ADV E[R]25,91930,90143,922108281640381212541,0091,5362,51611716826569194371,4814,5973211,4475,9172,1684,5398,4742355021,009651927195941,9536,8466892,7349,0122,8495,87210,8413671,2752,968662511,263REF17%11%10%17%14%9%12%5%6%6%4%5%13%5%9%E[R]37%15%13%49%18%17%22%9%7%14%9%8%47%13%16%ADV E[R]42%14%15%62%17%14%26%8%7%20%15%10%47%16%20%3scenariosforafutureenergysupply | GROWTH RATES FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIESBio energy2020 (power generation)2030 (power generation)2050 (power generation)2020 (heat&power)2030 (heat&power)2050 (heat&power)3375529941862874833734567177391,4023,0133924815807421,4242,9918%6%7%2%5%6%9%2%5%19%7%9%10%2%2%19%8%9%Ocean20202030205031125531286781194201,94315%13%10%55%10%20%70%15%19%Hydro2020203020504,0274,6795,9634,0294,3705,0564,0594,4165,1082%2%3%2%1%2%2%1%2%39

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 273map 3.1: CO2 emissionsreferencescenarioandtheadvancedenergy[r]evolutionscenarioWORLDWIDE SCENARIOscenariosforafutureenergysupply | CO2 EMISSIONSEMISSIONSCO2LEGENDOECD NORTH AMERICAREFE[R]LATIN AMERICAREFE[R]100-75 75-50 50-2525-0 % OF 1990 EMISSIONS INTHE 2050 ADVANCEDENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONSCENARIOREFE[R]REFERENCE SCENARIOADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIOCO2200720502007mio t %6,686H 1656,822 169t14.89Hmio t %6,686 165215M 5t14.89CO2200720502007mio t %1,010 167M2,006 332Mt2.18mio t %1,010 167119L 20t2.180 1000 KM205011.82H0.3720503.340.20LCO2EMISSIONS TOTALMILLION TONNES [mio t] | % OF 1990 EMISSIONSEMISSIONS PER PERSON TONNES [t]H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST40

OECD EUROPEMIDDLE EASTCHINATRANSITION ECONOMIESREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]mio t %mio t %mio t %mio t %mio t %mio t %mio t %mio t %CO2200720504,017M 1003,798 944,0172151005CO2200720501,3743,2082345461,37412223421CO2200720505,852 26112,460H 5555,852925H26141CO2200720502,6503,56466882,650258666tttttttt20077.447.4420076.79M6.7920074.384.3820077.797.7920506.61M0.3620509.080.3520508.740.65205011.470.83H3GLOBALREFE[R]scenariosforafutureenergysupply | CO2 EMISSIONSmio t %mio t %CO22007205027,40844,25913121127,4083,26713116tt20074.14.120504.80.4AFRICAINDIADEVELOPING ASIAOECD PACIFICREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]mio t %mio t %mio t %mio t %mio t %mio t %mio t %mio t %CO220072050881L1,622L16129788142316177CO2200720501,3075,1102228681,30744922285CO2200720501,488 2163,846M 5571,48842821662CO2200720502,1441,8221361162,144741365tttttttt20070.91L0.9120071.121.1220071.471.47200710.7010.7020500.81L0.2120503.170.3120502.540.28205010.140.41MDESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.41

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 273map 3.2: resultsreferencescenarioandtheadvancedenergy[r]evolutionscenarioWORLDWIDE SCENARIOscenariosforafutureenergysupply | RESULTSSCENARIORESULTSLEGENDOECD NORTH AMERICAREFE[R]LATIN AMERICAREFE[R]> -50 > -40 > -30REFREFERENCE SCENARIO2007PE PJ EL TWh115,758H 5,221HPE PJ EL TWh115,758H 5,2212007PE PJ EL TWh22,513L 998PE PJ EL TWh22,513L 998> -20 > -10 > 0E[R]ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO2050129,374 7,917 70,227% %7,925205040,874 2,480 27,311% %2,927> +10 > +20 > +30200720507151525785159820072050292870H57H2988H70H98% %% %> +40 > +50 % CHANGE OF ENERGYCONSUMPTION IN THE ADVANCEDENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO2050 COMPARED TO CURRENTCONSUMPTION 20070 1000 KM20072050857567M59M859% %67M22007205070L6928L40L% %70L12L28L2SHARE OF RENEWABLES %SHARE OF FOSSIL FUELS %200720508101816NUCLEAR POWERPHASED OUTBY 2040200720501322NUCLEAR POWERPHASED OUTBY 2030SHARE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY %H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWESTPE PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION/DEMAND IN PETA JOULE [PJ]EL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION/GENERATION IN TERAWATT HOURS [TWh]42

OECD EUROPEMIDDLE EASTCHINATRANSITION ECONOMIESREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]PE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWh200779,5993,57679,5993,576200721,37271521,372715200783,9223,31983,9223,319200748,111M 1,68548,111M 1,685205082,6345,35146,7544,233205051,2812,40427,4752,786L2050183,886H 12,188H 107,104H 10,190H205064,4493,11034,7102,438% %% %% %% %20071020102020071L31L3L200712M1512M152007417M417M20502007214285% %7754779754205020072L 7 76% %99H9799H99H97H2050200710 18 77L% %8783879083205020077 22M 76% %89658993653205020072050714616% %13826H122NUCLEAR POWERPHASED OUTBY 203020502007205097H9223% %0L0L001LNO NUCLEARENERGYDEVELOPMENT2050200720508575% %152723H10HNUCLEAR POWERPHASED OUTBY 2045205020072050GLOBAL85REF6324% %7M81715E[R]7NUCLEAR POWERPHASED OUTBY 2045scenariosforafutureenergysupply | RESULTS20072050PE PJ EL TWh490,229 19,773783,458 46,542PE PJ EL TWh490,229 19,773480,861 43,922% %20071318131820501524809520072050% %817968678120% %68520072050661410NUCLEAR POWERPHASED OUTBY 2045AFRICAINDIADEVELOPING ASIAOECD PACIFICREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]PE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWhPE PJEL TWh200726,355615L26,355615L200725,15981425,159814200731,90397831,903978200737,5881,851M37,5881,851M205043,1731,826L35,8052,490L205077,7610M 4,91852,1205,062205069,2333,72140,6393,548205040,7932,62621,299L 2,322% %% %% %% %2007205048H45H163648H79M1694200720502913171229781793L20072050271916212773L169420072050410816484898M% %% %% %% %200751825182200770817081200772797279200784708470205054L6220M6205084852272050797727620506651162M% %% %% %% %200720500L0L22NUCLEAR POWERPHASED OUTBY 2025200720501323NUCLEAR POWERPHASED OUTBY 204520072050125M2NUCLEAR POWERPHASED OUTBY 20452007205012H24H2233HNUCLEAR POWERPHASED OUTBY 2045DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.43

4keyresultsoftheeu27energy[r]evolutionscenarioEU 27ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTORFUTURE COSTS OF ELECTRICITYHEATING AND COOLING SUPPLY GENERATIONELECTRICITY GENERATIONJOB RESULTSTRANSPORTDEVELOPMENT OF CO2 EMISSIONSPRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTIONFUTURE INVESTMENTimage SOLAR PANEL. © BERND JUERGENS/DREAMSTIME“cleanandrenewableenergyare[...]indispensableifwearenottoplaceanunbearableburdenonourchildrenandgrandchildreninthe21stcentury.”ANGELA MERKELGERMAN FEDERAL CHANCELLOR:44

image AERIAL PHOTO OF THE ANDASOL 1 SOLAR POWER STATION, EUROPE’S FIRSTCOMMERCIAL PARABOLIC TROUGH SOLAR POWER PLANT. ANDASOL 1 WILL SUPPLY UP TO200,000 PEOPLE WITH CLIMATE-FRIENDLY ELECTRICITY AND SAVE ABOUT 149,000TONNES OF CARBON DIOXIDE PER YEAR COMPARED WITH A MODERN COAL POWER PLANT.image image TEST WINDMILL N90 2500, BUILT BY THE GERMAN COMPANY NORDEX, INTHE HARBOUR OF ROSTOCK. THIS WINDMILL PRODUCES 2.5 MEGA WATT AND IS TESTEDUNDER OFFSHORE CONDITIONS. TWO TECHNICIANS WORKING INSIDE THE TURBINE.© GP/MARKEL REDONDO© PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP4energydemandbysectorThe future development pathways for Europe’s energy demand areshown in Figure 4.1. Under the Reference scenario, total primaryenergy demand in EU 27 increases by 3% from the current 73,880PJ/a to 75,920 PJ/a in 2050. The energy demand in 2050 under thebasic Energy [R]evolution scenario decreases by 39%, and 38% inthe advanced case, compared to current consumption. By 2050, it isexpected to reach 45,040 PJ/a and 46,030 PJ/a respectively.Under the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demandin the industrial, residential and service sectors are expected todecrease after 2015 (see Figure 4.2). Efficiency measures in industryand other sectors avoid the generation of about 1,335 TWh/a (1,410TWh/a in the Energy [R]evolution scenario) compared to theReference scenario. This reduction in energy demand can be achieved,in particular, by introducing highly efficient electronic devices usingthe best available technology.The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electricvehicles earlier and sees more freight and passenger transportshifting to electric trains and public transport. This leads to anelectricity demand in the transport sector of 1,240 TWh/a in theadvanced scenario and 850 TWh/a in the basic Energy [R]evolutionscenario in 2050, compared to 135 TWh/a in the Reference scenario.In the transport sector, it is assumed under the advanced Energy[R]evolution scenario that energy demand will decrease to 7,250PJ/a by 2050, saving 52% compared to the Reference scenario. Thisreduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficientvehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and bychanges in mobility-related behaviour patterns.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are higher than in theelectricity sector. Under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, finaldemand for heat supply can be reduced significantly (see Figure 4.3).Compared to the Reference scenario, heat consumption equivalent to6340 PJ/a, or 25%, in the advanced case (5960 PJ/a, or 23%, inthe Energy [R]evolution), is avoided through efficiency gains by2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock ofresidential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energystandards and ‘passive house standards’ for new buildings, it will bepossible to enjoy the same comfort and energy service with a muchlower future energy demand.The increasing number of electric vehicles and quicker phase-out offossil fuels from industrial process heat generation towards electricgeothermal heat pumps and hydrogen lead to a rising electricitydemand of 4,220 TWh in the advanced Energy [R]evolution by2050. This value is still 11% lower than in the Reference case.Further details regarding the electricity sector can be found in thenext paragraph.keyresults | ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTORfigure 4.1: projectionoftotalfinalenergydemandbysector(REF,E[R]&advancedE[R])60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0REFE[R]advE[R]REFE[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT20072015202020302040205045

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 274keyresults | HEATING AND COOLING SUPPLYfigure 4.2: developmentofelectricitydemandbysector(REF,E[R]& advancedE[R])16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0E[R] advE[R]E[R] advE[R]2007 2010‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORTE[R] advE[R]2020E[R] advE[R]2030E[R] advE[R]2040E[R] advE[R]2050heatingandcoolingsupplyRenewables currently provide 13% of EU 27 primary energydemand for heat supply, mostly through biomass. The lack ofdistrict heating networks is a severe structural barrier to the largescale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. In theadvanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 92% ofEU 27 total heating and cooling demand by 2050. This value is 36percentage points higher than in the Energy [R]evolution scenariodue to two main effects:• Strict energy efficiency measures through tight building standardsand renewable heating systems, among other things, are introducedaround 5 years ahead of the Energy [R]evolution scenario. They candecrease the current demand for heat supply by 6340 PJ/a, or25%, compared to the Reference scenario by 2050, whileimproving living standards.• Solar collectors and geothermal heating systems, eclipsingfossil fuel-fired systems, achieve economies of scale via ambitioussupport programmes 5 to 10 years earlier than in the Energy[R]evolution scenario. This leads to a renewable share in theadvanced scenario which is more than four times higher than inthe Reference scenario (92%).figure 4.3: developmentofheatdemandbysectorfigure 4.4: developmentofheatsupplystructureunder3scenarios30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0PJ/a 0E[R] advE[R]2007E[R] advE[R]2010E[R] advE[R]2020E[R] advE[R]2030E[R] advE[R]2040E[R] advE[R]2050R E F E[R] advE[R]R E F E[R] advE[R]REF E[R] advE[R]REF E[R] advE[R]REF E[R] advE[R]R EF E[R] advE[R]2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRY‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL FUELS46

image image OFFSHORE WINDFARM,MIDDELGRUNDEN, COPENHAGEN,DENMARK.image MAN USING METAL GRINDER ONPART OF A WIND TURBINE MAST IN THEVESTAS FACTORY, CAMBELTOWN,SCOTLAND, GREAT BRITAIN.© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP© GP/DAVISONelectricitygenerationThe development of the electricity supply sector in the advancedEnergy [R]evolution scenario is characterised by a rapidly growingrenewable energy market. This will compensate for the phasing outof nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired powerplants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, nearly all theelectricity produced in EU 27 will come from renewable energysources (97%). Figure 4.5 shows the evolution of the Europeanelectricity mix under the three different scenarios. Up to 2020,hydro and wind power will remain the main contributors to thegrowing RES market share. After 2020, the continued growth ofwind will be complemented by electricity from photovoltaic,biomass, geothermal and solar thermal (CSP) energy. The advancedEnergy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a higher share of variablepower generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 36%by 2030 and 52% in 2050. Therefore, the expansion of smart grids,demand-side management (DSM) and storage capacity from anincreased share of electric vehicles and pumped hydropower will beused for better grid integration and power generation management.The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will growfrom the current 223 GW to 1,520 GW in 2050, increasingrenewable capacity by a factor of almost 7 (see Table 4.1) in theadvanced Energy [R]evolution scenario. Wind power andphotovoltaics each cover around a third of the total installedrenewable capacity, around 500 GW each. The remaining third ismainly provided by hydro power (160 GW) and equal 100 GWshares of biomass, geothermal and CSP power.Compared to the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the advanced scenariosees more than 40% additional power from renewable energy sourcesto satisfy increased electricity demand. While a faster uptake of thedifferent renewable energy technologies is assumed, only the use ofbiomass is kept to a lower level for sustainability reasons.table 4.1: projectionofrenewableelectricitygenerationcapacityunderbothenergy[r]evolutionscenariosIN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalE[R]advanced E[R]E[R]advanced E[R]E[R]advanced E[R]E[R]advanced E[R]E[R]advanced E[R]E[R]advanced E[R]E[R]advanced E[R]E[R]advanced E[R]200714014020205757115500002232232020155155595925125157125144915136056342030157157767733037613341962411743421792949204015715998933824432758282381277311379851,24420501561631121003984973596340498319918661,0901,5184keyresults | ELECTRICITY GENERATIONfigure 4.5: developmentofelectricitygenerationstructureunder3scenarios(REFERENCE, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION AND ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION) [“EFFICIENCY” = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO]5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000TWh/a 0REFE[R]advE[R]REFE[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRODIESELOILNATURAL GASLIGNITE• COALNUCLEAR20072015202020302040205047

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 274keyresults | ELECTRICITY GENERATION & JOB RESULTSfuturecostsofelectricitygenerationThe introduction of renewable technologies under the two Energy[R]evolution scenarios slightly increases the specific costs of electricitygeneration compared to the Reference scenario until 2030 (see Figure4.6). The difference will be less than 1.2 euro cent/kWh.However, after 2030, specific electricity generation costs will becomeeconomically favourable under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios.This is due to the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation and therelated costs for emission allowances as well as better economics ofscale in the production of renewable power equipment. In 2050, thespecific costs for one kWh add up to 6.7 euro cent in the advancedscenario, 7.3 euro cent in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario and9.5 euro cent in the Reference scenario.Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in electricitydemand, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissionsresult in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s € 240 billionper year to € 500 billion in 2050. Figure 4.6 shows that the Energy[R]evolution scenarios not only comply with Europe’s CO2 reductiontargets but also help to stabilise energy costs and relieve economicpressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energysupply to renewables result in long-term costs for electricity supplythat are 34 % lower in the advanced and 43% lower in the Energy[R]evolution scenario. The higher total costs in the advancedcompared to the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario result from ahigher requirement for electricity due to the increasing electrificationof the transport and heating sectors.jobresultsThe Energy [R]evolution scenarios lead to more energy sector jobsin EU 27 at every stage.• By 2015, renewable power sector jobs in the advanced Energy[R]evolution scenario are estimated to reach about 830,00,260,000 more than in the Reference scenario. The basic version willlead to 720,000 jobs in the renewable power industry.• By 2020, the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario has createdabout 940,000 jobs in the renewable power industry, 410,000 morethan the Reference scenario. The job losses in the fossil fuel sectordue to a reduced coal generation capacity are overcompensated bythe growing renewable power generation.• By 2030, the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario has createdabout 1,2 million jobs in the renewable power industry, 780,000more than the Reference scenario. Approximately 280,000 newrenewable energy jobs are created between 2020 and 2030,compared to the reference with a slight decrease of renewable energyjobs in the same time frame.Table 4.2 shows the increase in job numbers under both Energy[R]evolution scenarios for each technology up to 2030. Bothscenarios show losses in coal generation, but these are outweighed byemployment growth in renewable technologies and gas. Wind showsparticularly strong growth in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios by2020, but by 2030 there is significant employment across a range ofrenewable technologies. In both Energy [R]evolution scenarios,renewable power jobs reach over 70% of total energy sector jobs by2020, with a share of over 80% by 2030.figure 4.6: developmentoftotalelectricitysupplycosts&developmentofspecificelectricitygenerationcostsunder3scenarios600500104008300200100B €/a 02007 2015 2020 2030 2040 20506420 €¢/kWhENERGY [R]EVOLUTION - ‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURESREFERENCE SCENARIO•ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIOADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO48

image PLANT NEAR REYKJAVIK WHEREENERGY IS PRODUCED FROM THEGEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY.image WORKERS EXAMINE PARABOLICTROUGH COLLECTORS IN THE PS10 SOLARTOWER PLANT AT SAN LUCAR LA MAYOROUTSIDE SEVILLE, SPAIN, 2008.A© GP/COBBING© REDONDO/GPtable 4.2: employment&investmentREFERENCEENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION4JobsConstruction & installationManufacturingOperations & maintenanceFuelCoal and gas exportTotal Jobs20150.120.170.340.320.000.9420200.080.120.360.300.000.8720300.060.090.420.280.000.8520150.180.170.400.340.001.0920200.090.150.560.300.001.1120300.130.170.680.210.001.2020150.200.270.400.350.001.2220200.140.230.560.300.001.2320300.200.230.730.170.001.33keyresults | TRANSPORTCoalGas, oil and dieselNuclearRenewablesTotal Jobs0.270.060.040.570.940.250.050.040.530.870.230.040.030.540.850.270.070.030.721.090.200.070.020.821.110.080.070.011.041.200.280.070.030.831.220.200.070.020.941.230.040.070.011.221.33transportFor the transport sector, the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenarioassumes that energy demand will decrease by more than halfcurrent level to 7,250 PJ/a by 2050 (8,700 PJ/a in the Energy[R]evolution scenario), saving 52% compared to the Referencescenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction ofhighly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods fromroad to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.Implementing attractive alternatives to individual cars would seethecar stock grow more slowly than in the Reference scenario. A shifttowards smaller cars triggered by economic incentives and asignificant shift in propulsion technology towards electrified trainsand road vehicles will also contribute, as will a reduction of annualvehicle kilometres travelled.19% of the final energy demand in the transport sector is coveredby RES in 2030, rising to 86% in 2050. This is twice as high asthe renewable share in the Energy [R]evolution case, whereas theamount of biofuels is higher in the latter case (1,220 PJ/a vs.1,100 PJ/a in the advanced scenario).In 2030, electricity will provide 14% of the transport sector’s totalenergy demand in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario (7%in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario) and increase to 62%(35% respectively) by 2050.figure 4.7: transportunder3scenarios20,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0R E F E[R] advE[R]R E F E[R] advE[R]REF E[R] advE[R]REF E[R] advE[R]REF E[R] advE[R]R EF E[R] advE[R]2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS49

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 274keyresults | CO2 EMISSIONS & PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTIONdevelopmentofCO2 emissionsWhile CO2 emissions in EU 27 will increase by 13% in theReference scenario by 2050, under the advanced Energy[R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 3890 million tonnesin 2007 to 195 million tonnes in 2050 (equal to a 95% emissionsreduction compared to the 1990 level). Annual per capita emissionswill drop from 7.9 t to 0.4 t. In spite of the phasing out of nuclearenergy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in theelectricity sector. In the long run, efficiency gains and the increaseduse of renewable electricity in vehicles will reduce emissions in thetransport sector. With a share of 9% of total CO2 emissions in2050, the power sector will drop below transport as the largestsource of emissions (see Figure 4.8).The basic Energy [R]evolution scenario reduces energy related CO2emissions with a delay of 10 to 15 years compared to the advancedEnergy [R]evolution scenario, leading to 4.3 t per capita by 2030and 2.0 t by 2050. By 2050, EU 27´s CO2 emissions are 76%under 1990 levels.primaryenergyconsumptionTaking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resultingprimary energy consumption under the advanced Energy [R]evolutionscenario is shown in Figure 4.9. Compared to the Reference scenario,overall energy demand will be reduced to 62% in 2050. Around 86%of the remaining primary energy demand will be covered by renewableenergy sources. Compared to the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario, theabsolute primary energy savings are the same, whereas the renewableenergy share reaches only 60%. This gap is due to the fact that theadvanced scenario phases out coal and oil about 10 to 15 years fasterthan the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Main reasons for this are afigure 4.8: developmentofCO2 emissionsbysectorunderbothenergy[r]evolutionscenariosMil t/a5,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000E[R] advE[R]E[R] advE[R]E[R] advE[R]E[R] advE[R]E[R] advE[R]2007 2015 2020 2030 2040POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPUBLIC ELECTRICITY & CHPE[R] advE[R]2050Millionpeoplereplacement of new coal power plants with renewables after 20 yearsrather than 40 year lifetime in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and afaster introduction of electric vehicles to replace combustion engines.Nuclear energy is phased out in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios justafter 2030.520500480460440420400figure 4.9: developmentofprimaryenergyconsumptionunderthreescenarios80,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 0REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]REF E[R]advE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR20072015202020302040205050

image THROUGH BURNING OF WOOD CHIPS THE POWER PLANT GENERATESELECTRICITY, ENERGY OR HEAT. HERE WE SEE THE STOCK OF WOOD CHIPS WITH ACAPACITY OF 1000 M3 ON WHICH THE PLANT CAN RUN, UNMANNED, FOR ABOUT 4DAYS. LELYSTAD, THE NETHERLANDS.image THE MARANCHON WIND FARM IS THE LARGEST IN EUROPE WITH 104 GENERATORS,AND IS OPERATED BY IBERDROLA, THE LARGEST WIND ENERGY COMPANY IN THE WORLD.© GP/BAS BEENTJES© GP/DANIEL BELTRAfutureinvestmentinvestment for new electricity production plants The overalllevel of investment required for new power plants in Europe until2050 will be in the region of € 2.0 to € 3.8 trillion. A majordriving force for investment in new generation capacity will be theageing fleet of power plants. Utilities must choose whichtechnologies to opt for within the next five to ten years based onnational energy policies, in particular market liberalisation,renewable energy and CO2 reduction targets. The EuropeanEmission Trading scheme (ETS) will have a major impact onwhether the majority of investment goes to fossil fuelled powerplants or renewable energy and co-generation. The ETS will play amajor role in future technology choices, as will whether investmentsin renewable energy become competitive compared to investmentcosts for conventional power plants. In regions with a good windregime, for example, wind farms can already produce electricity atthe same cost levels as coal or gas power plants.To become a reality, the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire a total investment of € 2.7 trillion in power plants andcombined heat and power plants – approximately 33% higher thanin the Reference scenario (€ 2.0 trillion), see Figure 4.10. Theadvanced Energy [R]evolution scenario would need a € 3.8 trillioninvestment, approximately 40% more than the basic version. While35% of investment under the Reference scenario will go to fossilfuels and nuclear power plants, amounting to € 420 billion, underthe Energy [R]evolution scenarios, the EU 27 would shift over90% of investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Theremaining fossil fuel share of power sector investment would befocused mainly on combined heat and power and efficient gas-firedpower plants.4keyresults | FUTURE INVESTMENTfigure 4.10: investmentshares-referenceversusenergy[r]evolutionreference scenario 2007 - 20509% NUCLEAR POWERenergy [r]evolution scenario 2007 - 20508% FOSSIL18% FOSSILtotal 2.0 trillion €15% CHPtotal 2.7 trillion €25% CHP58% RENEWABLES67% RENEWABLESadvanced energy [r]evolution scenario 2007 - 20506% FOSSILfigure 4.11: changeincumulativepowerplantinvestmentinbothenergy[r]evolutionscenarios2,50020% CHP2,250total 3.8 trillion €2,0001,75074% RENEWABLES€bn/a1,5001,2501,0007505002500250-5002007-2020 2021-2030 2007-2050•FOSSIL & NUCLEAR E[R]FOSSIL & NUCLEAR ADVANCED E[R]RENEWABLE E[R]•RENEWABLE ADVANCED E[R]51

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 274futureinvestmentandemployment | FUTURE INVESTMENTrenewable energy power generation investment "Under theReference scenario, investment in renewable electricity generationbetween 2007 and 2050 will be € 1.4 trillion. This compares to € 3.5trillion in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario. Howinvestment is divided between the different renewable powergeneration technologies depends on their level of technicaldevelopment and on regionally available resources. Technologies suchas wind power, which in many regions is already cost-competitive withexisting power plants, will take a larger investment volume and abigger market share. The market volume attributed to differenttechnologies also depends on local resources and policy frameworkswithin the EU 27. Figure 4.12 provides an overview of the investmentrequired for each technology under the advanced Energy [R]evolutionscenario including combined heat and power plants.For solar photovoltaics, the main market will remain in Germanyand Spain for some years to come, but should soon expand acrossother EU member states. Because solar photovoltaic energy is ahighly modular and decentralised technology which can be usedalmost everywhere, its market will eventually spread across theentire EU. Concentrated solar power systems, on the other hand,can only operate in the most southern regions of the EU. The maininvestment in this technology is therefore expected to take place inSpain, France, Italy and Greece. Major developments for the windindustry are expected in northern Europe, Spain and Portugal.Offshore wind technology is expected to take a larger share fromaround 2015 onwards. The main offshore wind development willtake place around the North Sea region. Bio energy power plantscould be distributed across the whole of Europe, as there ispotential almost everywhere for biomass and/or biogas(cogeneration) power plants.figure 4.12: renewableenergyinvestmentcostsocean energysolar thermal power plantgeothermalpv power plantwindhydrobiomass0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 Million €52

image GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITYNEAR HOLSSELSNALAR CLOSETO REYKJAVIK, ICELAND.© GP/NICK COBBINGfuel cost savings using renewable energy Total fuel cost savingsin the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of € 2.1trillion, or € 49 billion per year. The advanced Energy [R]evolutionhas even higher fuel cost savings of € 2.6 trillion, or € 62 billionper year. This is because renewable energy has no fuel costs.In the basic case, additional investments amount to € 750 billionfrom today until 2050, which would be covered almost three timesby fuel cost savings (see Table 4.3). In the advanced case, fuel costsavings are as well enough to compensate for the entire additionalinvestment in renewable and cogeneration capacity required.table 4.3: fuelcostsavingsandinvestmentcostsunderthereference,energy[r]evolutionandadvancedenergy[r]evolutionINVESTMENT COSTEU 27 (2010) DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear)Renewables (incl. CHP)TotalEU 27 (2010) DIFFERENCE ADV E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear)Renewables (incl. CHP)TotalDOLLARbillion €billion €billion €billion €billion €billion €2007-2020-55341286-544243712021-2030-11114938-1184353162007-2050-2781,026748-2692,1171,8492007-2050AVERAGE PER YEAR-62417-649434futureinvestmentandemployment | FUTURE INVESTMENTCUMULATED FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS E[R] CUMULATED IN €Fuel oilGasHard coalLigniteTotalSAVINGS ADV E[R] CUMULATED IN €Fuel oilGasHard coalLigniteTotalbillion €/abillion €/abillion €/abillion €/abillion €/abillion €/abillion €/abillion €/abillion €/abillion €/a28-422571828-432972164-1212621200642149242392201,1886051022,1162201,6526671082,647528142495381636253

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27policyrecommendationsGLOBALSTANDBY POWER IS WASTED POWER.GLOBALLY, WE HAVE 50 DIRTY POWERPLANTS RUNNING JUST FOR OUR WASTEDSTANDBY POWER. OR: IF WE WOULDREDUCE OUR STANDBY TO JUST 1 WATT,WE CAN AVOID THE BUILDING OF 50 NEWDIRTY POWER PLANTS.© M. DIETRICH/DREAMSTIME“savingtheplanetisnotanafter-dinnerdrink,a‘digestif’thatyoutakeorleave.climatechangedoesnotdisappearbecauseofthefinancialcrisis.”JOSÉ MANUEL BARROSOPRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION54

image A YOUNG INDIGENOUS NENET BOY PRACTICES WITH HIS ROPE. THE BOYS ARE GIVEN A ROPEFROM PRETTY MUCH THE MOMENT THEY ARE BORN. BY THE AGE OF SIX THEY ARE OUT HELPINGLASSOING THE REINDEER. THE INDIGENOUS NENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THATTHEIR REINDEER DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUND AND THEY DO NOT OVER FISH THE LAKES. THEYAMAL PENINSULA IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASEAND RUSSIAS ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.© GP/WILL ROSEThe Energy [R]evolution presents European decision-makers witha cost-effective and sustainable pathway for our economy, whiletackling the challenges of climate change and the security ofenergy supply.A fully renewable and efficient energy system would allow Europeto develop a sound energy economy, create high quality jobs, boosttechnology development, secure global competitiveness and triggerindustrial leadership.At the same time, the drive towards renewables and the smart useof energy would deliver the necessary carbon dioxide emissions cutsof 95% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels, which Europe willhave to realise in the fight against climate change.But the Energy [R]evolution will not happen without much neededpolitical leadership: The European Union and its Member Stateswill have to set the framework for a sustainable energy pathway.At present, a wide range of energy-market failures still discouragethe shift towards a clean energy system. It is high time to removethese barriers to increase energy savings and facilitate thereplacement of fossil fuels with clean and abundant renewableenergy sources.European decision-makers should demonstrate commitment to aclean energy future, create the regulatory conditions for an efficientand renewable energy system, and stimulate governments,businesses, industries and citizens to opt for renewable energy andits smart use.Greenpeace proposes five steps that the European Union and itsMember States should take to realise the Energy [R]evolution.1.developavisionforatrulysustainableenergyeconomyfor2050toguideEuropeanclimateandenergypolicyDemonstrate how the EU will play its role in slashing globalemissions until 2050EU leaders committed in 2005 to the objective of keeping globalmean temperature increase below two-degrees Celsius (2˚ C)compared to pre-industrial levels. Above this level, damage toecosystems and disruption of the climate system would increasedramatically. In October 2009 the EU leaders also committed toreduce emissions in the EU by 80-95% in 2050 compared to 1990.The EU should develop a credible emissions reduction pathway toachieve a 95% cut within Europe, so as to make sure that the EUdoes its part to keep global warming below the 2˚C threshold.Move the energy system towards 100% renewable energy andhigh efficiency in all sectorsEurope’s energy system is outdated and substantial investments inpower production capacity and infrastructure, as well as buildingsand transportation, will have to take place within the next decade.These investment decisions will shape the structure of the energysystem until 2050 and beyond.A highly energy-efficient economy is a precondition for Europe’scompetitiveness and well-being. To power our electricity,transportation and remaining heating requirements, renewable energysources are the truly sustainable, cost-effective and available solution.Too much energy is still wasted in inefficient vehicles and buildings.Investments in coal production and nuclear power hinder thetransition towards a clean energy economy. They divert financialresources and create economic and technical lock-in effects inconflict with the uptake of renewable energy and energy efficiency.Europe should therefore take a strategic approach and commit toa truly sustainable vision for a fully renewable and energy efficientelectricity and heat production, as well as clean transportationuntil 2050.55

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 275climate&energypolicy | TARGETS AND ACTION2.adoptandimplementambitiousandlegallybindingtargetsforemissionsreductions,energysavingsandrenewableenergyCommit to legally binding emissions reductions of 30%as the next step, and lead by exampleThe EU has only included a 20% emission reduction target for 2020in EU legislation, and has put a conditional offer for 30% emissionreductions on the table at the international climate negotiations.Greenpeace urges EU leaders to show leadership and to commitas soon as possible to a 30% unconditional emission reductiontarget for the EU. This as a first step towards at least 40%emission cuts by 2020 for all industrialised countries under aglobal climate agreement.Furthermore, a 30% reduction target is required to strengthenthe EU’s carbon price in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EUETS). Due to the economic recession of 2008 and 2009 the EUETS carbon price has collapsed, taking away an important driverfor green and resource-efficient technology investments.Internationally, the European Union will have to provide substantialadditional finance to help developing countries mitigate climatechange with clean energy technologies and forest protection.Set legally binding targets for energy savings by 2020The EU has set itself a target to reduce energy use by 20% by 2020,compared to business-as-usual. This target will not be met withoutadditional measures. The EU should convert the non-binding 2020EU energy savings goal into a legally binding requirement for all EUmember states, whilst allowing member states some flexibility inachieving these requirements. It should accelerate the implementationof current energy savings policies and devise new policies to deliverlarge-scale investments into energy efficiency improvements.Implement the binding renewable energy targets of at least20% by 2020With the adoption of the Renewable Energy Directive, EuropeanMember States have committed to legally binding targets, addingup to a share of at least 20% renewable energy in the EU by 2020.The Energy [R]evolution scenarios demonstrate that even more ispossible. To reap the full benefits that renewable energy offers forthe economy, energy security, technological leadership andemissions reductions, governments should aim for an earlyachievement of their renewable energy targets and prepare forthe further uptake of renewable energy sources beyond 2020.3.removebarrierstoarenewableandefficientenergysystemReform the electricity market and network managementAfter decades of state-subsidies to conventional energy sources,the entire electricity market structure and network system, havebeen developed so as to suit centralised nuclear and fossilproduction structures. Current ownership structures, pricemechanisms, transmission and congestion management practicesand technical requirements hinder the optimal integration ofvariable and decentralised renewable energy technologies.As an important step to facilitate the reform of the electricitymarket, all European governments should secure full ownershipunbundling of transmission system operations from powerproduction and supply activities. This is the effective way to providefair market access and overcome existing discriminatory practicesagainst new market entrants, such as renewable energy producers.A modernisation of the power grid system is urgently required toallow for the cost-effective connection and integration of renewablepower sources. The European Union and its governments shouldcreate the necessary framework conditions and incentives for thedevelopment of grid connections for renewable energy supply,including offshore, targeted interconnection that allows for thetransmission and balancing of variable supplies across regions, aswell as smart grid management and technology that allows for theintegration of variable and decentralised supplies and activedemand side management.To facilitate this modernisation, the Agency for the Cooperationof Energy Regulators (ACER) should be strengthened and themandate of national energy regulators should be reviewed.Both ACER and the European Network of Transmission SystemOperators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) should develop a strategicinterconnection plan until 2050 which enables the developmentof a fully renewable electricity supply.In parallel, electricity market regulation should ensure thatinvestments in balancing capacity and flexible power productionfacilitate the integration of renewable power sources, whilephasing out inflexible ‘baseload’ power supply.Phase out all subsidies and other support measuresfor inefficient plants, appliances, vehicles and buildings,as well as for fossil fuel use and nuclear powerWhile the EU is striving for a liberalised market for electricityproduction, government support is still propping up conventionalenergy technologies, hindering the uptake of renewable energysources and energy savings.For example, the nuclear power sector in Europe still benefits fromdirect subsidies, government loan guarantees, export creditguarantees, government equity input and subsidised in-kind support.In addition, the sector continues to profit from guaranteed cheaploans under the Euratom Loan Facility and related loans by theEuropean Investment Bank.56

image A WOMAN IN FRONT OF HER FLOODED HOUSE INSATJELLIA ISLAND. DUE TO THE REMOTENESS OF THESUNDARBANS ISLANDS, SOLAR PANELS ARE USED BYMANY VILLAGERS. AS A HIGH TIDE INVADES THE ISLAND,PEOPLE REMAIN ISOLATED SURROUNDED BY THE FLOODS.© GP/PETER CATONApart from these financial advantages, the nuclear sector profitsfrom cost-limitations for decommissioning of power stations andradioactive waste management (e.g. in Slovakia and the UK),government bail-outs of insufficient reserves for decommissioningand waste management (in the UK), and government financing ofR&D and education infrastructure (on a national level and underEuratom). Liability coverage for installations in the nuclearenergy sector is so low that damage of any major accident willhave to be covered almost completely by state funds. The totallevel of these financial advantages is estimated to be severaltimes the financial support given to the renewable energy sector.Also fossil fuels continue to receive large financial benefits thatcontradict the development of a clean power market. Spain,Germany, Poland and Romania still subsidise their coal sectorswith support or at least acceptance from the side of the EuropeanCommission, although these subsidies should be phased out underthe Treaty of the European Union.New EU funds for fossil fuel technologies have been made availablein recent years to promote carbon capture and storage technology.Spending money on carbon capture and storage is diverting fundsaway from renewable energy and energy savings. Even if somecarbon capture and storage becomes technically feasible andcapable of long-term storage, it would still only have a limitedimpact on emission reductions and would come at a high cost.In the transport sector, the most energy intensive modes, road andaviation, receive about EUR 150 billion in subsidies and taxexemptions. About 7% of the EU’s Structural and Cohesion Fundsare spent on road and aviation infrastructure. Also the EIB has longfavoured these modes of transportation, especially in Central andEastern Europe, cementing Europe’s high carbon transport system.Close existing loopholes for nuclear wasteThe European Union and the Member States should bring themanagement of nuclear waste in line with general EU wastepolicies in order to make the polluter pays principle fullyeffective. This means that loopholes under which certain forms ofradioactive waste are excluded from waste rules have to beclosed. This includes depleted uranium, reprocessing waste,plutonium and reprocessed uranium stockpiles, uranium miningwaste as well as fluid and air-borne wastes from uraniumenrichment, fuel production and spent nuclear fuel reprocessing.It also includes clear policies for phasing out the production ofradioactive waste from processes for which there are economic andenvironmentally viable alternatives, which is certainly the case fornuclear electricity production. Over 90% of radioactive waste isproduced by the nuclear power sector – a nuclear phase out policyas proposed in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is therefore thelogical step in a coherent and consequent EU waste policy.4.implementeffectivepoliciestopromoteacleanenergyeconomyUpdate the EU Emission Trading SchemeThe EU should update its Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) soas to move away rapidly from free allocation of emissionallowances. To provide the right market signals and the economicincentives for the transition of our energy system along the wholeproduction and consumption chain, all allowances under theEmissions Trading System should be auctioned rather than beinggiven out for free. Auctioning reduces the total cost of Europeanclimate action because it is the most economically efficient allocationmethodology, eliminating windfall profits from free allowances.Furthermore the EU ETS should be a driver for domestic emissionreductions. The required domestic reductions must not be replacedby investments in questionable projects in third countries(‘offsetting’). Strict quantitative limits and strict quality criteria onoffsetting should guarantee real emission cuts and investments ingreen technology and jobs.Implement stable support for renewable energy and securethe successful enforcement of the Renewable Energy DirectiveWith the adoption of the Renewable Energy Directive, EU MemberStates have committed to a framework for the support of cleanenergy. In order to secure the realisation of the 20% renewableenergy targets, governments should implement effective supportpolicies to compensate for the existing market failures and to helpmaturing renewable energy technologies to realise their fulleconomic potential.In the electricity sector, feed-in tariffs or premium systems, ifdesigned well, have proven to be the most successful and costeffective instruments to promote the broad uptake of renewablepower technologies. Under a feed-in system, a certain price isguaranteed for the electricity produced from different renewablesources. A premium model provides for a certain premium paid ontop of the market price.For the heating sector, the Renewable Energy Directive foresees abuilding obligation, which establishes that a certain share of heatingand cooling in new and refurbished buildings have to come fromrenewable energy sources. In addition, investments subsidies and taxcredits are among the instruments available to support renewableheating and cooling.The support of renewable energy in the transport sector shouldfocus primarily on the use of renewable electricity in electricvehicles and trains, while support the development of furthersustainable renewable energy options for all modes oftransportation. The availability of sustainable biofuels is limited. TheEuropean Union and individual governments should ensure theeffective implementation and improvement of sustainabilitystandards for biofuels and biomass.5climate&energypolicy | TARGETS AND ACTION57

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 275climate&energypolicy | TARGETS AND ACTIONAlongside direct support for renewable energy sources, complexlicensing procedures and bureaucratic hurdles for renewable energyshould be removed and European governments and authoritiesshould secure simple and transparent authorisation procedures. Atthe same time, the access to infrastructure should be facilitated andpriority grid connection and access to the electricity network shouldbe guaranteed for renewable power.In addition, awareness-raising and training for local and regionalauthorities, spatial planners, architects and installers, and for thepublic, are important for the successful uptake of renewableenergy sources.Set energy efficiency standards for vehicles, consumerappliances, buildings and power productionA large part of energy savings can be achieved through efficiencystandards for vehicles, consumer products and buildings. However,current EU legislation in this field represents and incoherentpatchwork of measures, which does not add up to a clear andconsistent division of responsibility and fails to deliver on the EU’senergy savings potential.Efforts should be stepped up in each area. With regard to vehicles,the EU should regulate for an average of 125 g CO2/km for lightcommercial vehicles by 2020, and lower the CO2 reduction targetfor passenger cars to 80 g CO2/km by 2020.With regard to electricity generation, the EU should set an emissionperformance standard for new and existing power plants of 350grams of CO2eq per kWh.Initiate robust and harmonised EU green taxationA harmonisation and strengthening of taxes on carbon emissionsand energy use should be implemented in all EU member states, inparticular for sectors not covered by the EU ETS (such as transportand agriculture). Taxing energy use is crucial to achieve energysecurity and lower the consumption of natural resources. Greentaxation would also deliver more jobs, because labour-intensiveproduction would gain a competitive advantage. This effect wouldeven be stronger if member states used revenues of green taxationto reduce labour costs (e.g. by reducing taxes on income).5.ensurethatthetransitionisfinancedAllocate EU Cohesion and Structural Funds to a cleanenergy futureAmbitious emission reductions in the EU are technically andeconomically feasible, and can even deliver significant net benefitsfor the European energy economy. However, before the Energy[R]evolution starts paying off, major investments are required. Inparticular for the EU member states with an economy intransition, in particular in Central and Eastern Europe, it can bedifficult to mobilise the required private and public investments.In the revision of the EU budget, in 2011, including EU Cohesionand Structural Funds, decision-makers should therefore ensurefunds are allocated to energy system modernisation, energyinfrastructure and energy efficiency technology.Support innovation and research in energy saving technologiesand renewable energyInnovation will play an important role in making the Energy[R]evolution more attractive. Direct public support is oftennecessary to speed up the deployment of new technologies.The European Union, national governments, as well as publicfinance institutions should prioritise investments in research anddevelopment for more efficient appliances and buildingtechniquies, new types of renewable energy production such astidal and wave power, smart grid technology, as well as lowemittingtransport options. These include the development ofbetter batteries for electric vehicles, freight transportmanagement programmes and ‘tele-working’.Alongside support to facilitate the maturing or existing renewableenergy and efficiency technologies, research and innovation arerequired also for truly sustainable technologies for the aviation andshipping sectors, as well as heavy road-transport. While substantialefficiency improvements and a shift from air- and road-basedtransportation to shipping and trains can help reduce the impact oftransportation, the availability of sustainable renewable energytechnologies is currently limited. Innovations, such as secondgeneration sails or hydrogen, could become part of the solution.658

glossary&appendixGLOBAL“iwouldliketoseeaeuropethatisthemostclimatefriendlyregionintheworld.”image COAL FIRED POWER PLANT.© F. FUXA/DREAMSTIMECONNIE HEDEGAARDEUROPEAN COMMISSIONER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE59

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 276glossary&appendix | GLOSSARYglossaryofcommonlyusedtermsandabbreviationsCHPCO2GDPPPPIEAJkJMJGJPJEJWkWMWGWCombined Heat and PowerCarbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gasGross Domestic Product (means of assessing a country’s wealth)Purchasing Power Parity (adjustment to GDP assessmentto reflect comparable standard of living)International Energy AgencyJoule, a measure of energy:= 1,000 Joules,= 1 million Joules,= 1 billion Joules,= 10 15 Joules,= 10 18 JoulesWatt, measure of electrical capacity:= 1,000 watts,= 1 million watts,= 1 billion wattsconversionfactors-fossilfuelsFUELCoalLigniteOilGas23.038.456.1238000.00MJ/tMJ/tGJ/barrelkJ/m 31 cubic1 barrel1 US gallon1 UK gallonconversionfactors-differentenergyunitsTO: TJ GcalFROMMULTIPLY BYTJGcalMtoeMbtuGWh14.1868 x 10 -34.1868 x 10 41.0551 x 10 -33.6238.8110 70.252860Mtoe2.388 x 10 -510 (-7)12.52 x 10 -88.6 x 10 -5Mbtu947.83.9683968 x 10 7 134120.0283 m 3159 liter3.785 liter4.546 literGWh0.27781.163 x 10 -3116302.931 x 10 -4 1kWht/GtKilowatt-hour, measure of electrical output:TWh = 10 12 watt-hoursTonnes, measure of weight:Gt = 1 billion tonnes60

image MINOTI SINGH AND HER SON AWAIT FOR CLEANWATER SUPPLY BY THE RIVERBANK IN DAYAPURVILLAGE IN SATJELLIA ISLAND: “WE DO NOT HAVECLEAN WATER AT THE MOMENT AND ONLY ONE TIME WEWERE LUCKY TO BE GIVEN SOME RELIEF. WE ARE NOWWAITING FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO SUPPLY US WITHWATER TANKS”.© GP/PETER CATONdefinitionofsectorsThe definition of different sectors below is the same as the sectoralbreakdown in the IEA World Energy Outlook series.All definitions below are from the IEA Key World Energy StatisticsIndustry sector: Consumption in the industry sector includes thefollowing subsectors (energy used for transport by industry is notincluded -> see under “Transport”)• Iron and steel industry• Chemical industry• Non-metallic mineral products e.g. glass, ceramic, cement etc.• Transport equipment• Machinery• Mining• Food and tobacco• Paper, pulp and print• Wood and wood products (other than pulp and paper)• Construction• Textile and Leather6glossary&appendix | GLOSSARYTransport sector: The Transport sector includes all fuels fromtransport such as road, railway, domestic aviation and domesticnavigation. Fuel used for ocean, costal and inland fishing is includedin “Other Sectors”.Other sectors: ‘Other sectors’ covers agriculture, forestry, fishing,residential, commercial and public services.Non-energy use: Covers use of other petroleum products such asparaffin waxes, lubricants, bitumen etc.61

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27eu27:referencescenario6glossary&appendix | APPENDIX - EU 27table 6.1: eu27:electricitygenerationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindPVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energyDistribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES sharetable 6.2: eu27:heatsupplyPJ/ADistrict heating plantsFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalTotal heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct and from electric heat pumps) not included; covered in the model under ‘electric appliances’table 6.3: eu27:co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions electricity& steam generationCoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustryOther sectorsTransportElectricity & steam generationDistrict heating & othersPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)6220072,664446294443598935553091044601663155953174551004771863,327186360139076010489350529309104410560120429402,8401093.3%15.9%20071,3021,005293042,3152,037278017,93615,7922,066393921,55318,8342,636394312.6%2007925388305181438530161119154951,4555494253351463,88696%6196789621,293334492.97.920152,7283822804032278746735130032721706160863434076105052013,433172254236674662787408373513003214382118328702,9893339.7%24.4%20151,4061,085316052,3982,063330617,64915,1392,376775721,45418,2883,022776714.8%201577331227316616746815578164701,241466351330933,58589%5506549221,106352502.57.120202,8523642604981367737838141248882741166853633294105302113,593178753134586145677301,0333814124817298217929303,13846212.9%28.7%20201,3641,052306052,4992,1113751218,08915,2202,6831157021,95218,3843,3651158716.3%202073928023920510644615565178491,186435303382653,54988%5276539371,066364505.37.020303,1583532506021057368640858193121498121798439328126205802323,970190453233499538573601,330408581932121314918130803,49768317.2%33.5%20301,186916267042,8772,4304331419,04815,4243,2972289823,11118,7703,99722911618.8%20307442622222487443713570198341,181398292445463,51187%4966649421,072337505.66.920403,464343240700846991014357461381620158831898942923151206302534,3472,0255313291,12931469901,62343574613825218201518232303,85789920.7%37.3%20401,006777226033,2392,7304941520,04215,7233,91327812824,28719,2304,63327814620.8%20407492552132716345715477204211,205409290476303,44485%4616829461,110245501.46.920503,774334231800436621144629151822027219541989346320178206882664,7282,1465323241,26324366201,92146291518229222272118233904,2201,11823.6%40.6%2050814628183033,6463,1045261620,95615,9194,53134616025,41619,6515,24134617922.7%20507362482052783246916185210131,205409290488183,39384%4266979491,124197493.96.9table 6.4: eu27:installedcapacityGW2007 2015 2020Power plants647 751 788Coal91 87 76Lignite57 61 54Gas105 115 120Oil398 207 126DieselNuclear132 123 108Biomass10 13 15Hydro140 156 166Wind575100 138 183PV29110 44131GeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyCombined heat & power production 162 191 185Coal30 37 35Lignite19 20 18Gas75 87 88Oil28 33 28Biomass10 14 17Geothermal00 00 00HydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducers107541256612462Total generation808 942 974Fossil453 466 436Coal121 124 111Lignite76 80 72Gas181 202 208Oil678 537 396DieselNuclear132 123 108Hydrogen0 0 0Renewables223 352 430Hydro140 156 166Wind575 138 183PV29 44Biomass20 27 32Geothermal100 110 231Solar thermalOcean energyFluctuating RESRES(PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating627.7%16717.8%22723.3%RES share27.6% 37.4% 44.1%table 6.5: eu27:primaryenergydemandPJ/ATotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermalOcean EnergyRES share200773,87657,2869,9953,82618,05425,41010,2056,3851,114375534,59424728.7%201572,11153,8768,7693,16518,35423,5889,5358,7001,2641,0801995,888266312.1%202072,45753,8348,2852,73319,45023,3658,43310,1901,3721,4833176,722287914.1%table 6.6: eu27:finalenergydemandPJ/a 2007 2015Total (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermalHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermalRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal52,22847,41814,01013,331853312634202.7%13,6864,1426591,6602899511,8694,23408300013.0%19,7225,8209261,7613064623,1876,952391,4673514.1%4,92410.4%4,8104,1276285520308806546146651031617523278243185331595182300125601,06543098612422451030533175232783924331229.3%50.0%203074,51654,3067,5042,63121,35222,8198,02912,1811,4692,0926147,6353423116.3%204097963421635598181842761133651983516104152800136621,17744697592662059806331842761134736539333.4%53.7%204075,56453,8257,3292,61722,39721,4827,62514,1141,5662,6868478,5763865318.6%20501,07961391782493211933261464772123617112133400149631,29146297562891649307361933261465447747937.1%57.0%205075,91852,8757,0012,61323,01920,2427,22215,8211,6633,2941,0999,2614287620.6%4,354 4,229 4,019 3,810 3,6013,736 3,628 3,449 3,269 3,089569 552 525 498 47049 48 46 43 412020 2030 2040 205052,013 53,286 55,642 57,982 60,35047,659 49,058 51,623 54,172 56,75014,026 14,486 14,654 14,821 14,98912,773 12,981 13,045 13,099 13,133103 113 123 134 144820 1,030 1,088 1,153 1,225330 363 398 435 486800 104 133 163 1970 0 0 06.4% 7.8% 8.3% 8.9% 9.5%13,329 13,421 13,731 14,020 14,3394,229 4,354 4,606 4,857 5,1081,031 1,252 1,543 1,814 2,0751,626 1,533 1,509 1,468 1,456295 282 255 229 202666 592 427 261 921,660 1,589 1,429 1,266 1,1024,193 4,265 4,372 4,478 4,5850 0 0 0 09540017.1%1,0870019.5%1,3870023.2%1,6900026.6%1,9950029.8%20,304 21,150 23,238 25,331 27,4226,202 6,580 7,586 8,592 9,5991,512 1,891 2,541 3,208 3,8991,915 2,061 2,271 2,481 2,692347 380 384 388 373389 335 205 147 642,894 2,766 2,603 2,437 2,2717,090 7,335 7,979 8,620 9,26176 115 228 278 3461,687 1,895 2,277 2,658 3,04051 63 90 119 14818.1% 20.5% 23.8% 26.3% 28.5%6,85514.4%8,10116.5%9,92819.2%11,70021.6%13,50223.8%

eu27:energy[r]evolutionscenariotable 6.7: eu27:electricitygenerationtable 6.10: eu27:installedcapacityTWh/a2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2007 2015 2020 2030Power plants2,664 2,687 2,622 2,497 2,383 2,410 Power plants647 756 861 916Coal446 396 311 123 45 90 Coal91 90 65 25Lignite294 273 187 76 14Lignite57 59 39 14Gas443 439 496 514 265 128 Gas105 110 115 121Oil598 287 225 103 01 000 Oil398 257 205 63DieselDieselNuclear935 755 425 158 22Nuclear132 106 59 22Biomass55 65 71 79 80 81 Biomass10 12 13 14Hydro309 340 355 365 372 375 Hydro140 151 155 157Wind104 320 564 825 1,032 1,115 Wind575100 147 251 330PV4601 49851 138 235 345 425 PV45220 125 196Geothermal18 42 79 97 Geothermal391 8Solar thermal power plants26 54 93 125 Solar thermal power plants174Ocean energy3 13 34 55 Ocean energyCombined heat & power production 663 709 780 825 890 858 Combined heat & power production 162 185 180 182Coal155 133 55 26 00 00 Coal30 308 126 01Lignite95 35 28Lignite19Gas317 371 429 451 363 239 Gas75 94 103 109Oil45 32 14 7 0 0 Oil28 27 12 4Biomass51 134 247 336 464 534 Biomass10 25 46 6250Geothermal00 40 80 250 640 850 Geothermal00 10 20HydrogenHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producers477 505 550 570 583 540 CHP by producerAutoproducers186 204 230 255 307 318 Main activity producers107 122 123 123Autoproducers54 63 57 58Total generation3,327 3,396 3,402 3,322 3,273 3,268Fossil1863 1,714 1,546 1,191 688 376 Total generation808 942 1,041 1,097Coal601 529 366 125 45 90 Fossil453 450 377 283Lignite390 308 215 82 14Coal121 121 77 25Gas760 810 925 965 628 367 Lignite76 67 45 15Oil104 607 365 173 01 0000 Gas181 204 219 230Diesel8Oil678 517 325 103Nuclear935 755 425 158 220DieselHydrogen0 0 0 0Nuclear132 106 59 22Renewables529 926 1,431 1,973 2,563 2,892 Hydrogen0 0 0 0Hydro309 340 355 365 372 375 Renewables223 385 605 792Wind104 320 564 825 1,032 1,115 Hydro140 151 155 157PV4 49 138 235 345 425 Wind575 147 251 330Biomass105 199 318 415 544 615 PV45 125 196Geothermal601 1251 26 66 143 182 Biomass20 38 59591 76Solar thermal26 54 93 125 Geothermal100 22013Ocean energy3 13 34 55 Solar thermal17Ocean energy4Distribution losses204 183 185 185 195 210Own consumption electricity294 280 275 270 260 255 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 62 192 377 530Electricity for hydrogen production 0 3 40 62 99 101 Share of fluctuating RES7.7% 20.4% 36.2% 48.3%Final energy consumption (electricity) 2,840 2,958 2,942 2,973 3,180 3,527RES share27.6% 40.9% 58.1% 72.2%Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 109 370 705 1,073 1,411 1,595Share of fluctuating RES3.3% 10.9% 20.7% 32.3% 43.1% 48.8%table 6.11: eu27:primaryenergydemandRES share15.9% 27.3% 42.1% 59.4% 78.3% 88.5%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 52 232 637 1,032 1,411PJ/A2007 2015 2020 2030Total73,876 69,673 64,853 57,792table 6.8: eu27:heatsupplyFossil57,286 51,462 46,420 37,605Hard coal9,995 8,063 5,769 3,0082007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Lignite3,826 2,688 1,736 647Natural gas18,054 17,588 17,963 17,367Crude oil25,410 23,122 20,952 16,582PJ/ADistrict heating plantsFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalTotal heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalRES share(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)1) heat from electricity (direct and from electric heat pumps) not included; covered in the model under ‘electric appliances’table 6.9: eu27:co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions electricity& steam generationCoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustryOther sectorsTransportElectricity & steam generationDistrict heating & othersPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)1,3021,005293042,3152,037278017,93615,7922,066393921,55318,8342,636394312.6%02007925388305181438530161119154951,4555494253351463,88696%6196789621,293334492.97.91,40196733656422,5341,8896143216,60613,7102,32923633120,54116,5653,27929240519.4%913201579732326618120739413032178541,190453298358813,38784%5055999161,0712965026.71,501938375105832,8561,7461,0377316,28712,5062,61856160220,64515,1914,03166675726.4%1,3072020636239172204165301512121019937290193414402,86271%4325468438411995055.71,6216324383731783,0261,6121,19222215,36410,3262,5561,50797620,01112,5704,1861,8791,37537.2%3,10020303819167212732321421976139372431182,16354%3604326975271485064.31,8862264728683213,2441,2921,37957314,5128,5132,1982,4191,38219,64210,0314,0483,2872,27648.9%4,6452040150341210301171001710321341227411,43135%271359473246825012.92,26505211,2914533,2148821,56876413,9807,6941,8222,8321,63219,4598,5763,9114,1232,84955.9%5,95820505160440010500105015560149097224%227323291100314942.0NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermalOcean EnergyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermalHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermalRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal10,2056,3851,114375534,59424728.7%08,2369,9751,2241,1524866,430678414.4%2,4244,63613,7971,2782,0301,2577,9291,2901221.4%7,536table 6.12: eu27:finalenergydemand1,72418,4631,3142,9702,9208,6602,5534732.5%16,16820409911022007 2015 2020 2030 2040 205052,228 50,788 49,681 46,721 43,577 41,81547,418 46,433 45,453 42,702 39,767 38,21514,010 13,996 13,281 11,773 9,781 8,69513,331 12,682 11,621 9,595 6,483 3,95885 111 174 175 175 171331 789 895 1,041 1,151 1,224263 407 494 802 1,713 3,070420 111 208 476 1,341 2,7176 97 160 259 2722.7% 6.4% 8.6% 13.7% 27.6% 48.1%13,686 12,773 12,620 12,270 11,925 11,6984,142 4,117 4,054 3,977 3,912 3,883659 1,123 1,705 2,362 3,063 3,4371,660 1,534 1,522 1,670 1,898 2,000289 459 622 920 1,429 1,797951 759 584 546 376 3321,869 1,374 1,032 588 165 824,234 3,903 3,790 3,326 2,869 2,6020 102 255 568 972 1,140830 889 1,132 1,143 1,049 82000 960 251 453 685 8380 0 0 013.0% 20.9% 31.4% 44.4% 60.4% 68.7%19,722 19,665 19,552 18,659 18,061 17,8225,820 6,125 6,044 5,922 5,822 5,743926 1,671 2,541 3,517 4,558 5,0831,761 2,128 2,544 2,679 2,916 3,156306 636 1,040 1,477 2,196 2,836462 289 108 57 0 03,187 3,060 2,866 1,635 848 4926,952 6,028 5,622 5,319 5,103 4,94239 134 307 939 1,447 1,6921,467 1,700 1,778 1,697 1,393 1,20435 201 284 411 531 59214.1% 22.1% 30.4% 43.1% 56.1% 64.0%4,924 7,912 11,057 15,099 20,019 23,62010.4% 17.0% 24.3% 35.4% 50.3% 61.8%4,810 4,354 4,229 4,019 3,810 3,6014,127 3,736 3,628 3,449 3,269 3,089628 569 552 525 498 47055 49 48 46 43 4188013121573822821527111850087086130120651,17618910217501309851573822829827271167557.4%83.7%204050,01826,3631,73311213,33311,18524023,4151,3393,7154,8648,7994,57512248.2%23,96720501,04030640001215639834018311817300560100170107661,2131233012000001,09015639834011235311875762.4%89.9%205045,03919,1391,178010,2477,715025,8991,3504,0146,1038,7125,52219859.9%28,101636glossary&appendix | APPENDIX - EU 27

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONTOWARDS A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE EU 27eu27:advancedenergy[r]evolutionscenario6glossary&appendix | APPENDIX - EU 27table 6.13: eu27:electricitygenerationtable 6.16: eu27:installedcapacityTWh/a2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2007 2015 2020 2030Power plants2,664 2,688 2,642 2,728 2,925 3,477 Power plants647 759 889 1,043Coal446 385 289 32 102 00 Coal91 88 60 69Lignite294 272 172 51Lignite57 59 36Gas443 444 496 498 203 14000 Gas105 111 122 125Oil598 287 225 103 01Oil398 257 205 63DieselDieselNuclear935 755 425 118 22Nuclear132 106 59 17Biomass55 65 71 75 76 81 Biomass10 12 13 14Hydro309 345 355 365 377 391 Hydro140 153 155 157Wind104 320 564 939 1,196 1,392 Wind575100 147 251 376PV4601 50961 158 289 467 622 PV45220 144 241Geothermal30 143 198 333 Geothermal5 26Solar thermal power plants45 141 262 446 Solar thermal power plants153 43Ocean energy10 63 110 198 Ocean energy21Combined heat & power production 663 709 780 825 795 745 Combined heat & power production 162 185 180 180Coal155 133 60 33 00 00 Coal30 308 135 11Lignite95 35 22Lignite19Gas317 371 429 428 247 780 Gas75 94 103 104Oil45 32 14 7 0Oil28 27 12 4Biomass51 134 247 345 439 474 Biomass10 25 46 6380Geothermal00 40 80 400 109 174 Geothermal00 10 20Hydrogen1 20 HydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producers477 505 550 570 545 515 CHP by producerAutoproducers186 204 230 255 250 230 Main activity producers107 122 123 123Autoproducers54 63 57 58Total generation3,327 3,397 3,422 3,553 3,720 4,222Fossil1863 1,707 1,509 1,035 463 9200 Total generation808 944 1,069 1,223Coal601 518 349 35 102Fossil453 449 376 258Lignite390 307 194 54Coal121 118 73 7Gas760 815 925 926 450 92 Lignite76 67 41 10Oil104 607 365 173 01 000 Gas181 205 226 228Diesel8Oil678 517 325 103Nuclear935 755 425 118 221DieselHydrogen0 0 0 020 Nuclear132 106 59 17Renewables529 934 1,488 2,400 3,234 4,110 Hydrogen0 0 0 0Hydro309 345 355 365 377 391 Renewables223 389 634 949Wind104 320 564 939 1,196 1,392 Hydro140 153 155 157PV4 50 158 289 467 622 Wind575 147 251 376Biomass105 199 318 420 515 554 PV45 144 241Geothermal601 1361 38 183 307 507 Biomass20 38 597 77Solar thermal45 141 262 446 Geothermal100 22034Ocean energy10 63 110 198 Solar thermal15 43Ocean energy3 21Distribution losses204 183 185 185 195 210Own consumption electricity294 280 275 270 260 255 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 62 193 398 637Electricity for hydrogen production 0 3 40 60 144 289 Share of fluctuating RES7.7% 20.5% 37.2% 52.1%Final energy consumption (electricity) 2,840 2,959 2,963 3,206 3,581 4,274RES share27.6% 41.2% 59.3% 77.5%Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 109 371 732 1,291 1,773 2,212Share of fluctuating RES3.3% 10.9% 21.4% 36.3% 47.7% 52.4%table 6.17: eu27:primaryenergydemandRES share15.9% 27.5% 43.5% 67.6% 86.9% 97.3%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 52 232 627 1,001 1,335 PJ/A2007 2015 2020 2030Total73,876 69,396 64,473 57,388table 6.14: eu27:heatsupplyFossil57,286 51,182 45,682 33,880Hard coal9,995 7,673 5,276 1,6272007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Lignite3,826 2,679 1,574 429Natural gas18,054 17,766 18,174 16,951Crude oil25,410 23,063 20,657 14,873PJ/ADistrict heating plantsFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotal heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalRES share12.6% 19.4% 26.6% 41.8% 65.0% 92.2%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 920 1,383 3,264 4,872 6,3381) heat from electricity (direct and from electric heat pumps) not included; covered in the model under ‘electric appliances’table 6.15: eu27:co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions electricity& steam generationCoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustryOther sectorsTransportElectricity & steam generationDistrict heating & othersPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)641,3021,005293042,3152,037278017,93615,7922,0663939021,55318,8342,63639432007925388305181438530161119154951,4555494253351463,88696%6196789621,293334492.97.91,40096633656422,5341,8896143216,60013,7052,328236331020,53416,5603,278292405201578931426518320739413032178541,182444297360813,37083%5056019161,0632855026.71,595997399112882,8601,7501,0377316,11312,3422,607559605020,56915,0894,0436717652020605222158204165302561721019907279175414402,81870%4225468388112005055.61,7206714643961893,1341,5861,18736014,9939,2882,5302,0721,102019,84711,5454,1822,4681,65120302842445205732272221585112648420181,89447%3273826194311355063.72,4532945891,1534173,2868711,43397813,5825,6222,4563,1512,3529519,4156,7884,4784,3043,74720408982790111600116020582195194623%187240317151505011.93,10306831,8006213,2882801,3841,56312,1251,1962,4044,3844,14256219,0791,4764,4706,1846,3252050500500330033039003801955%5454631854940.4NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermalOcean EnergyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)table 6.18: eu27:finalenergydemandPJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermalHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermalRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal10,2056,3851,114375534,59424728.7%08,2369,9781,2421,1524936,383703414.4%2,6964,63614,1551,2782,0301,4027,8581,5513622.1%7,9161,28722,2211,3143,3804,0168,4384,84522739.2%16,57320401,217302007 2015 2020 2030 2040 205052,228 50,788 49,582 46,122 42,187 39,68047,418 46,434 45,354 42,103 38,377 36,07914,010 13,996 13,281 11,473 8,781 7,24513,331 12,678 11,561 8,523 4,333 87485 110 164 153 121 10331 790 892 1,039 1,050 1,105263 411 567 1,603 2,898 4,476420 113 247 1,083 2,519 4,3576 97 154 379 7792.7% 6.5% 8.9% 19.4% 44.4% 85.9%13,686 12,773 12,619 12,178 11,732 11,4494,142 4,117 4,056 3,986 3,977 3,962659 1,132 1,764 2,692 3,457 3,8571,660 1,534 1,633 1,896 2,232 2,501289 459 665 1,063 1,862 2,447951 759 539 386 267 201,869 1,365 930 419 98 114,234 3,912 3,816 3,327 1,912 6320 102 255 563 993 1,308830 889 1,134 1,133 1,088 1,05500 960 255 468 1,067 1,3730 0 99 58613.0% 21.0% 32.3% 48.6% 72.9% 92.7%19,722 19,665 19,454 18,452 17,864 17,3855,820 6,125 6,043 5,947 5,870 5,938926 1,685 2,627 4,018 5,102 5,7801,761 2,127 2,525 2,652 3,180 3,584306 636 1,028 1,487 2,653 3,507462 360 251 134 0 03,187 3,017 2,755 1,304 532 496,952 6,002 5,531 4,737 3,476 83039 134 304 1,510 2,158 3,0761,467 1,699 1,764 1,679 1,641 1,61535 201 281 489 1,008 2,29314.1% 22.1% 30.9% 49.8% 70.3% 93.6%4,924 7,937 11,259 17,327 25,012 33,10310.4% 17.1% 24.8% 41.2% 65.2% 91.7%4,810 4,354 4,229 4,019 3,810 3,6014,127 3,736 3,628 3,449 3,269 3,089628 569 552 525 498 47055 49 48 46 43 4168013121594433813673371620059081220109531,3791323012701301,2441594433819358733786162.4%90.2%204049,70319,024763169,7318,51524030,4391,3574,3066,9298,9328,52039662.1%24,28120501,40500900012163497498619966145001808835498471,55028002700041,5181634974981009699661,06168.4%98.0%205046,0316,76827302,4524,043039,2621,4085,01110,0288,85613,24671385.9%27,184

eu27:totalnewinvestmentbytechnologytable 6.19: eu27:totalinvestmentMILLION € 2007-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 2007-2050 2007-2050AVERAGEPER YEARReference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyEnergy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyAdvanced Energy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy96,970130,59026,26836,61738,93225,0242,40798735594,351130,59026,26836,61738,93225,0242,40798735594,351130,59026,26836,61738,93225,0242,407987355154,432378,68551,402102,107134,18968,9499,15711,0341,84799,928719,257145,21775,118200,250221,54036,68437,6172,831100,809802,831145,21774,955200,250253,85854,49165,3308,730168,475270,92445,19180,19679,06648,1627,7096,2674,33457,240420,13071,50162,376105,41789,38754,46430,3546,63150,052705,51270,24662,376144,448119,665164,427108,39235,958604,1711,364,158196,598377,453468,785234,77332,55738,88315,109326,1122,390,561461,913285,465624,586563,645256,610163,76634,577335,4793,481,499438,614303,052749,141733,479659,405469,622128,18714,05031,7254,5728,77810,9025,4607579043517,58455,59410,7426,63914,52513,1085,9683,8098047,80280,96510,2007,04817,42217,05815,33510,9212,9816glossary&appendix | APPENDIX - EU 27notes65

6glossary&appendix | FIVE YEARS OF THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO2005–2010:5yearsofenergy[r]evolutionscenarios–5yearsofdevelopmentSince Greenpeace published the first Energy [R]evolution scenario in May2005 (covering the EU-25 countries) during a seven month long ship tourfrom Poland all the way down to Egypt, the project has developedsignificantly. That very first scenario was launched on board the ship withthe support of former EREC Policy Director Oliver Schäfer. This was thebeginning of a long lasting and fruitful collaboration between GreenpeaceInternational and the European Renewable Energy Council. The GermanSpace Agency’s Institute for Technical Thermodynamics, under Dr.Wolfram Krewitt´s leadership, was the scientific research institute behindall the analysis which supports the scenario. Between 2005 and 2009these three very different stakeholders have managed to put together over30 scenarios for countries from all continents of the world and publishedtwo editions of the Global Energy [R]evolution. It has since become a wellrespected blueprint for progress towards an alternative energy future. Thework has been translated into over 15 different languages, includingChinese, Japanese, Arabic, Hebrew, Spanish, Thai and Russian.The concept of the Energy [R]evolution scenario has been under constantdevelopment from the beginning. Now, for example, we are able tocalculate the employment effects in parallel with the scenariodevelopment. The program MESAP/PlaNet has also been developed bysoftware company seven2one, providing many features to make the projectmore sophisticated. For the 2010 edition we have developed a specificstandard report tool which provides us with a “ready to print” executivesummary for each region or country. This allows our calculations tointeract between all the world regions, resulting in the global scenarioopening up like a cascade. All these new developments have enabled us toprovide ever improving quality, faster development times and more userfriendly outputs. Over the past few years an experienced team of 20scientists from all regions of the world has been formed in order to reviewthe regional and/or country specific scenarios and to make sure that theyare appropriate to the specific geographical area.In some cases the Energy [R]evolution Scenarios have been the first everlong term energy scenario produced for a particular country, for examplethe Turkish scenario published in 2009. Since the first Global Energy[R]evolution scenario published in January 2007, we have organised sideevents at every single UNFCCC climate conference, countless energyconferences and panel debates. Over 200 presentations in more than 30languages always had one message in common: “The Energy Revolutionis possible; it is needed and will pay for itself in benefits for futuregenerations!” Many high level meetings have taken place, for example on15th July 2009, when the Chilean President Michelle Bachelet attendedour launch event for the Energy [R]evolution in Chile.The Energy [R]evolution work is a cornerstone of the Greenpeace climateand energy work worldwide and we would like to thank all thestakeholders who have been involved. Unfortunately, in October 2009, DrWolfram Krewitt from DLR passed away far too early and left a huge gapfor everybody. His energy and dedication helped to make the project a truesuccess story. Arthouros Zervos and Christine Lins from EREC have beeninvolved in this work from the very beginning and Sven Teske fromGreenpeace International has led the project since its first beginnings inlate 2004. The well received layout of all the Energy [R]evolution serieshas been produced – also from the very beginning – by Tania Dunster andJens Christiansen from “onehemisphere” in Sweden, and with enormouspassion, especially in the final phase as the reports have gone to print.Finally, all the Global Energy [R]evolution Scenarios have been reportedin a number of scientific and peer review journals such as Energy Policy.66Listed here is a selection of milestones from the progress of the Energy[R]evolution story between 2005 and June 2010.June 2005: First Energy [R]evolution Scenario for EU 25 presentedin Luxembourg for members of the EU´s Environmental Council.July – August 2005: National Energy [R]evolution scenariosfor France, Poland and Hungary launched during an “Energy[R]evolution” ship tour with a sailing vessel across Europe.January 2007: First Global Energy [R]evolution Scenariopublished parallel in Brussels and Berlin.April 2007: Launch of the Turkish translation from the Global Scenario.July 2007: Launch of Futu[r]e Investment – an analysis of the neededglobal investment pathway for the Energy [R]evolution scenarios.November 2007: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Indonesiain Jakarta/Indonesia.January 2008: Launch of the Energy [R]evolutionfor New Zealand in Wellington/NZ.March 2008: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Brazilin Rio de Janeiro/Brazil.March 2008: launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Chinain Beijing/China.June 2008: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Japanin Aoi Mori & Tokyo/Japan.June 2008: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Australiain Canberra/Australia .August 2008: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for the Philippinesin Manila/Philippines.August 2008: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for the Mexicoin Mexico City/Mexico.October 2008: Launch of the second edition of the Global Energy[R]evolution Report.December 2008: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for the EU 27in Brussels/Belgium.December 2008: Launch of a concept for specific feed in-tariffmechanism to implement the Global Energy [R]evolution Reportin developing countries at a COP13 side event in Poznan/Poland.March 2009: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for the USAin Washington/USA.March 2009: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for India in Delhi/India.April 2009: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Russiain Mosko/Russia.May 2009: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Canadain Ottawa/Canada.June 2009: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Greecein Athens/Greece.June 2009: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Italy in Rome/Italy.July 2009: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Chile in Santiago/Chile.July 2009: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Argentinain Buenos Aires/Argentina.September 2009: Launch of the first detailed Job Analysis“Working for the Climate” – based on the global Energy[R]evolution report in Sydney/Australia.October 2009: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for South Africain Johannesburg/SA.November 2009: Launch of the Energy [R]evolution for Turkeyin Istanbul/Turkey.November 2009: Launch of “Renewable 24/7” a detailed analysisfor the needed grid infrastructure in order to implement the Energy[R]evolution for Europe with 90% renewable power in Berlin/Germany.

200520072007200820092009

energy[r]evolutionGreenpeace is a global organisation that uses non-violent directaction to tackle the most crucial threats to our planet’s biodiversityand environment. Greenpeace is a non-profit organisation, presentin 40 countries across Europe, the Americas, Africa, Asia and thePacific. It speaks for 2.8 million supporters worldwide, and inspiresmany millions more to take action every day. To maintain itsindependence, Greenpeace does not accept donations fromgovernments or corporations but relies on contributionsfrom individual supporters and foundation grants.Greenpeace has been campaigning against environmentaldegradation since 1971 when a small boat of volunteers andjournalists sailed into Amchitka, an area west of Alaska, wherethe US Government was conducting underground nuclear tests.This tradition of ‘bearing witness’ in a non-violent manner continuestoday, and ships are an important part of all its campaign work.Greenpeace InternationalOttho Heldringstraat 5, 1066 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlandst +31 20 718 2000 f +31 20 718 2002sven.teske@greenpeace.orgwww.greenpeace.orgeuropean renewable energy council - [EREC]Created in April 2000, the European Renewable Energy Council(EREC) is the umbrella organisation of the European renewableenergy industry, trade and research associations active in thesectors of bioenergy, geothermal, ocean, small hydro power, solarelectricity, solar thermal and wind energy. EREC thus represents theEuropean renewable energy industry with an annual turnover of€ 70 billion and employing 550,000 people.EREC is composed of the following non-profit associations andfederations: AEBIOM (European Biomass Association); EGEC(European Geothermal Energy Council); EPIA (European PhotovoltaicIndustry Association); ESHA (European Small Hydro powerAssociation); ESTIF (European Solar Thermal Industry Federation);EUBIA (European Biomass Industry Association); EWEA (EuropeanWind Energy Association); EUREC Agency (European Association ofRenewable Energy Research Centers); EREF (European RenewableEnergies Federation); EU-OEA (European Ocean Energy Association);ESTELA (European Solar Thermal Electricity Association).EREC European Renewable Energy CouncilRenewable Energy House, 63-67 rue d’Arlon,B-1040 Brussels, Belgiumt +32 2 546 1933 f+32 2 546 1934erec@erec.org www.erec.org© GREENPEACE/NICK COBBINGimage ICE MELTING ON A BERG ON THE GREENLANDIC COAST. GREENPEACE AND AN INDEPENDENT NASA-FUNDED SCIENTIST COMPLETED MEASUREMENTS OF MELT LAKES ON THEGREENLAND ICE SHEET THAT SHOW ITS VULNERABILITY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. frontcoverimages INSTALLATION AND TESTING OF A WINDPOWER STATION IN RYSUMER NACKENNEAR EMDEN WHICH IS MADE FOR OFFSHORE USAGE ONSHORE. © PAUL LANGROCK / ZENIT / GREENPEACE. INSTALLING PV PANELS © GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGA. THE POWER OF THE SEA ©MCDONNELL/ISTOCK