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1 Uncorrected/ Not for publication- 08.12.2009 SSS-AKG/11.00/1A ...

1 Uncorrected/ Not for publication- 08.12.2009 SSS-AKG/11.00/1A ...

1 Uncorrected/ Not for publication- 08.12.2009 SSS-AKG/11.00/1A ...

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164<strong>Uncorrected</strong>/ <strong>Not</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>publication</strong>- <strong>08.12.2009</strong>once on the sugarcane stuff, and then on this stuff about prices, both ofwhich seem to have somewhat taken him by surprise. For an astuteplayer of his kind, <strong>for</strong>tunately, Sir, unlike Don Bradman, this is not hislast innings and he can hope to really salvage his reputation.Sir, couple of things are very clear. First and <strong>for</strong>emost, the currentrise in prices is a combination of several factors; combination, first and<strong>for</strong>emost, of endemic, long-term disequilibrium between demand andsupply, changing consumer preferences, plateauing of our productivityand disruption of global markets and distribution. Some of these lendthemselves to short-term solutions. There are others, Sir, where thecauses are more endemic. But there is no getting away, Mr. Minister,with the fact that unless supply side responses are significantlyimproved, it will be difficult to make a short-term dent in the situation.One unhappy thing is that, un<strong>for</strong>tunately, this does not seem to be aspike in the prices from 2007-08; this seems to be an endemic long-termtrend driven by three important factors. First and <strong>for</strong>emost, Sir, driven bythe fact that meat consumption is going up at a rate which isunprecedented. Second, Sir, population, which is six billion today, evenwith the best of ef<strong>for</strong>ts, will hit 9.2 billion by 2050. And, thirdly, Sir, theinability <strong>for</strong> global productivity patterns, cropping systems to sustainhigher levels of productivity in the light of the changing dynamics ofclimate changes seem to be insurmountable.My suggestion to the Minister is, concentrate on two types ofmeasures. First of all, concentrate on some short-term measures. Whatcan you do in the short run? In the short run, I think that the mostimportant thing he can do, Sir, and the London Economist, about which

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