Box 1.1. Correlation between climate change, the energy sectorand human developmentClimate change is one of the most dramaticgeopolitical and economic problems of the century,since it poses a real threat to human development andbetter quality of life worldwide in both the short andlong term. Production and combustion of fossil fuelsare one of the main causes of registered increase inGHG emissions and resulting quickening of the globalclimate change process. In <strong>Russia</strong> over 72% of GHGemissions are related to use of fossil fuels.Climate monitoring records by thenational hydrometeorological network, as well asscientific publications by <strong>Russia</strong>n and foreignscientists on global climate change and itsconsequences show significant negative and, insome cases, positive impact from climate changeon <strong>Russia</strong>’s natural environment and socioeconomicdevelopment, both nationally and byregions. The Assessment <strong>Report</strong> on ClimateChange and its Impact on the <strong>Russia</strong>n Federation,prepared in 1998 by experts of the StateHydrometeorological Committee (Roshydromet),the <strong>Russia</strong>n Academy of Sciences and specialistsfrom the country’s universities 8 , did much to focusattention on severity of the problem.Climate change will have negative impacton many parts of the national economy and theenergy sector may be among the hardest hit.Energy facilities in Siberia and northern territoriesare particularly vulnerable due to thawing ofpermafrost, which covers two thirds of <strong>Russia</strong>’sterritory. It is expected that depth of seasonalmelting will increase by 30-50% by 2050, which willcreate new technical challenges for the resourceextraction industry in the <strong>Russia</strong>n Arctic and Siberia.Communities and energy infrastructure intraditional permafrost areas are particularly at risk.In Western Siberia 21% of all accidents on trunk oiland gas pipelines have mechanical causes,including failure of foundations and deformation ofsupports.Further melting of the permafrost coulddamage even larger facilities, such as oil depots.Special technical projects will be needed in orderto prevent an increase of oil and gas pipelinefractures.Forecast change of flow volumes in riverswill change the of water influx to large reservoirs.Forecasts predict a 5-10% increase of water influxto the Volga-Kama reservoir series and toreservoirs in the North-Western Federal District.Water influx to reservoirs on the Angara andYenisei rivers, and also on the Viluy, Kolyma, andZeya rivers will increase by between 0% and 15%.Changes in river flow due to expected climatechanges will force reassessment of reservoiroperation procedures with respect to main users(especially power generating facilities) and theenvironment.<strong>Russia</strong>’s transportation infrastructure isalso at risk. Increasing volume and frequency ofprecipitation, and the fact that winterprecipitation will increasingly be in the form ofrain, rather than snow, will tend to destabilize roadbeds and weaken support walls. Prolonged dryperiods could result in soil subsidence beneathstructures and buildings. Larger temperaturefluctuations will speed up road degradation.Permafrost melt is already destroying winter iceroads, which are vitally important for the oil andforestry segments.<strong>Russia</strong> is more subject to weather extremesthan other countries of Europe and Central Asia andvulnerability of the country’s economy reflects itslarge tracts of territory with unfavorable ecologicalconditions and poor condition of the country’sinfrastructure.Benefits from climate changes in <strong>Russia</strong>include reduction of heating costs, greater potentialfor agriculture and forestry, ability to developshipping along the Northern Sea Route, as well asgreater access to, and hence production of, mineralresources and biological marine resources.Both positive and negative climate changeimpacts require complex and professional study. Itis important to develop climate risk assessment andforecasting research, as well as studies of theirpossible benefits for the energy industry and othersegments so that these factors can be taken intoaccount when making long- and medium-termstrategic decisions.8Assessment <strong>Report</strong> on Climate Change and its Impact on the <strong>Russia</strong>n Federation: General Summary, Roshydromet, 200826National Human Development <strong>Report</strong> in the <strong>Russia</strong>n Federation 2009
Although the United Nations ClimateChange Conference in Copenhagen in 2009 did notmark a breakthrough in putting the climate issue atcenter stage of the world economy and nationaleconomies, its results will have major impact forstrengthening and expansion of the drive towardslow-carbon development, which the leading nationsof the World are embarked upon. The CopenhagenAccord (the political document developed andadopted by world leaders at the Conference)confirmed the commitment of most developedcountries to keep global warming under 2 o C andstart immediate actions for prevention of andadaptation to climate change, to organize relevantfinancing and technologies, and to stop forestdevastation in developing countries. The strategicmeasures for energy saving and GHG emissionsreduction at the national level that have alreadybeen adopted or are under development willinfluence global markets (both markets fortraditional fuel & energy, and the new market forGHG emission certificates) and will encouragetransfer and distribution of energy-efficient and lowcarbon technologies.Adoption of the Climate Doctrine of the<strong>Russia</strong>n Federation, signed by the <strong>Russia</strong>n Presidenton November 17, 2009, is an important stepforward. The Doctrine sets out attitudes towards thegoal, principles, content and means ofimplementation of a unified climate change policyin the <strong>Russia</strong>n Federation. The strategic goal of the<strong>Russia</strong>’s climate change policy is to ensure safe andsustainable national development, including theinstitutional, economic, environmental and social(including demographic) aspects of suchdevelopment, in the context of climate change andrelated threats and challenges. The Doctrine paysspecial attention to development of <strong>Russia</strong>n climatescience, which many prominent experts believe tobe in need of strong state support.Objective media coverage of problemsrelated to climate change and its implications,including ‘popular science’ approaches to climateawareness, is a priority for <strong>Russia</strong>. Successfuldevelopment and implementation of <strong>Russia</strong>’s climatechange policy will depend on greater environmentalawareness and understanding of climate changeissues among government officials, business people,civil society and the general public.Almost simultaneous adoption of theClimate Doctrine and of the Energy Policy of <strong>Russia</strong>up to 2030 (approved by Governmental DecreeNo.1715-r, dated November 13, 2009) bodes well forclose integration of energy and climate policies withrespect to action plans and socio-economicdevelopment programmes.27
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Box 4.1. The village of Kolvain Uss
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continue to use solid fuel for a lo
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Box 4.3. Ambient air pollution andp
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either by large power generating fa
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Box 4.6. A city at riskNovocherkass
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In order to assess impact of thesee
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generation facilities through safer
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achieved in developed countries. So
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equires 2-6 times more capital inve
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government) should set targets and
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networks. In 2007 government budget
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enhancement is also important. Ener
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energy efficiency of the transport
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Box 5.1. Programme of the Ministry
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educational and informational suppo
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mechanism for using national quota
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Figure 6.2Share of electricity gene
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One of the major benefits of renewa
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odies; outdoor air; rocks and soil;
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Design and construction of geotherm
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Box 6.3. Prospects for nuclear powe
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consists of out-dated equipment at
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ConclusionThe world’s nuclear pow
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7.1. Impact of the fuel& energy sec
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Table 7.5Solid waste from productio
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Table 7.7Areas of disturbed and rec
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nature of the impact (atmospheric e
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Further, the economic cost ofenviro
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trends continued the damage would a
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What the government needs to do ino
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Figure 7.2.1Specific atmospheric em
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money value of industrial output) c
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Figure 7.2.4Trends in specific atmo
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Chapter 8The Energy Industry and Su
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eing equal) it only reflects that p
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(MDGs), issued by the UN in 2000. T
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8.4. The energy factorin integral i
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Canada, the USA and Great Britain h
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Box 8.2. Energy efficiencyindicator
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Box 8.4. Energy efficiency rating o
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41 Penza Region 116.0 -35.2 -4.542
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Appendix to Chapter 1Table 1.1. GDP
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Attachment to Chapter 4Table 4.1Rus
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Attachment to Chapter 4Volga Federa
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Attachment to Chapter 4Belovo Belov
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The previous National Human Develop