Japan (100, 63 and 47 GW respectively). The numberof new nuclear power stations currently underconstruction is quite modest, but plans for futureconstruction are ambitious. Nuclear stations in Chinacurrently have total capacity of 9 GW, but this shouldincrease to at least 40 GW by 2020 and possibly to amuch higher level of 70 GW.Bad heritage problemsSome of the problems the industry has todeal with today have to do with the past rather thanthe future. The principal nuclear powers, particularlythe US and <strong>Russia</strong>, are burdened with a negativenuclear heritage from the Cold War arms race, whilethe heritage problem for atomic power generation assuch concerns handling of spent nuclear fuel andradioactive waste. In practice, until the late 1980s, thenuclear industry put off resolution of this issue: spentfuel and radioactive waste was allowed to accumulatewithout organisational, technical or economicsolutions for permanent storage.In recent years many nations have passedappropriate laws, introduced necessary financialmechanisms and begun implementing programmesto build facilities for recycling spent nuclear fuel andradioactive waste. Today these issues are being giventop priority, and not only by national legislation: onSeptember 5, 1997 a diplomatic conference of theInternational Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna sealedthe Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent FuelManagement and on the Safety of Radioactive WasteManagement, which imposes a number of obligationson the nations that ratified it. <strong>Russia</strong> ratified thisConvention in 2005.<strong>Russia</strong> is taking practical steps to deal with itsnuclear heritage as part of the federal targetprogramme, ‘Ensuring nuclear and radioactive safetyin 2008 and the period until 2015’. The programmecalls for creation of infrastructure for handling spentnuclear fuel and radioactive waste from thermalreactors, and appropriate legislation is also beingdeveloped, most importantly a new federal law onhandling of radioactive waste, a draft version of whichhas already been prepared. The main goal of this lawis to create financial mechanisms for handlingradioactive waste on a long-term basis and to takeinventory of waste that has accumulated so far, whereit is stored, and the conditions of storage, so thatdecisions can be made about what to do with it in thefuture.Long-term challengesThe design of modern reactors anticipatesvery long service lives, of 50-60 years. However, whathas to be taken into account is not only the period,during which a reactor will be in use, but also itsdecommissioning, construction of facilities for safedisposal of radioactive waste, creation of a closed fuelloop and a financial system to support all theseactivities for years to come.Nuclear power is a knowledge-intensiveand high technology industry. Generating electricityusing reactors running on thermal neutrons is nowa standardized industrial technique and in thissense it is an ‘old’ technology, even though it can beclassed as high-tech. Further refinement of thistechnology, primarily to optimize its economic andphysical parameters, has its limits. The fuel reservefor thermal-neutron reactors is restricted by limitedreserves of Uranium 235. Such reactors only use 1%of the uranium and as a consequence they byproducesignificant quantities of underused nuclearfuel. The handling of spent nuclear fuel significantlyincrease the cost of the fuel cycle of a nuclear powerstation.While looking for solutions to its mediumtermproblems, the nuclear power industry must alsothink about its long-term prospects. Developmentand adoption of a new technology in the nuclearindustry takes a very long time, sometimes severaldecades. In effect, therefore, the introduction of newnuclear technology can span several generations,making it impossible to tell which of the new ideasproposed today will be in demand in decades tocome.Set to growFor <strong>Russia</strong> to sustain its current level of powergeneration, it has to launch new capacity to replacethe power stations that are going offline. At present40% of the country’s total power generating capacity118 National Human Development <strong>Report</strong> in the <strong>Russia</strong>n Federation 2009
consists of out-dated equipment at fuel-fired powerstations. By 2020, 57% of these stations will haveexceeded their design service life.<strong>Russia</strong>’s nuclear power industry has 31 powergenerating units with total capacity of 23 GW andcurrently generates 16% of all electric powerconsumed in the country. In European <strong>Russia</strong> theshare of nuclear power is almost twice higher, at 30%.The design service life of the power generating unitsis 30 years. Even though in the original design it wasexpected that this service life could be extended by10-20 years, <strong>Russia</strong> has to build new capacity simplybecause, sooner or later, the older nuclear reactors willhave to be decommissioned.However, <strong>Russia</strong> is on an economic growthtrajectory, which will have to be supported by increaseof power generation, and the power generationsolutions need to be implemented long beforedemand for more power rises. New facilities cannot bebuilt quickly from scratch for purely technical reasons,let alone other considerations. In the nuclear industryit takes a minimum of between five and six years tocomplete a single power generating unit after the sitehas already been surveyed and prepared (thepreparatory stage can also take years). So the sort ofnuclear power industry we will have in 10-20 years isto a large extent determined by decisions we tookyesterday and are taking now.<strong>Russia</strong>’s energy strategy up to 2020 is basedon a number of basic scenarios describing thecountry’s social and economic development in yearsto come. The official energy strategy assumes thatthe fuel-energy balance will need to be optimizedand that increase in the country’s demand forelectricity will best be met by creating additionalnuclear power capacity, primarily in European <strong>Russia</strong>.The amount of electricity generated by nuclearpower stations must grow from 130 billion kilowatthours in 2000 to 300 billion kilowatt hour in 2020 inthe best case economic-growth scenario and to 220kilowatt hours if a more moderate scenario plays out.This means that the capacity of nuclear powerstations will have to double while the share ofnuclear power in total electricity production willincrease to 23%.One of the main principles of the officialgovernment plan for deployment of electric powerfacilities up to 2020 is maximum possible increase inthe share of facilities not dependent on fossil fuels, i.e.nuclear and hydro-electric power stations.Development of nuclear power would beimpossible without the following prerequisites:• Availability of appropriate designs andtechnologies;• Acceptable levels of safety;• Nuclear power stations must have certainenvironmental advantages over powergeneration using fossil fuel.<strong>Russia</strong> is currently building nine nuclearpower generation units at home and abroad. Thebackbone of the country’s nuclear powerdevelopment in the coming decade will be the newstandard power generating unit using a VVER-1200(AES-2006) reactor.New technologies<strong>Russia</strong>n President Dmitry Medvedev hasincluded improvement of nuclear technologiesamong the country’s five main technologydevelopment priorities 7 . Thanks to large-scaleresearch carried out in the past, <strong>Russia</strong> has all thenecessary tools for creating a new nuclear technology.The new technology must meet several keyrequirements, as follows:• it must be safe;• it must be competitive with other technologies;• it must not be reliant on limited fuel reserves;• it must be environment friendly;• it must help solve nuclear non-proliferation tasks.All these requirements are met by newtechnologies based on use of fast reactors in a closedfuel loop.Fast reactors, also known as fast neutronreactors, represent a strategic innovation in thenuclear energy sector. Five countries (<strong>Russia</strong>, France,Japan, India and China) have achieved mostsignificant results in development of thistechnology, and <strong>Russia</strong> is leading the way thanks tocompletion of the Beloyarsk nuclear power station,7Dmitry Medvedev: ‘Forward, <strong>Russia</strong>!’. September 10, 2009.119
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National Human Development Reportin
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National Human Development Reportin
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe authors express
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Dear Reader,You have before you the
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PREFACEThis is the 13 th National H
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country’s fuel & energy regions r
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environmental degradation and enhan
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Chapter 1The Energy Sector,the Econ
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By 2008 Russia had increased its sh
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the share of energy in the national
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exported, increased. However, this
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elimination of structural and terri
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• Establishment of competitive me
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number of developed countries, incl
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Although the United Nations Climate
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industrial region of the Urals - Sv
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2.2. Budget capacityand structure o
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(the Federal State Statistics Servi
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Immigration by young and highly ski
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energy regions exacerbate the incom
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Khanty-Mansi and Yamal-Nenets Auton
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the Ministry for Regional Developme
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various other long-term problems in
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is also associated with the fuel an
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Republic of Mordovia 8051 0.732 68.
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Legislative control of impact audit
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Chapter 3Personal Incomes, the Ener
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than any other sources of income -
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Are wages now the main instrument f
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comparison of month-on-month develo
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• The unemployed, people who aree
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Employment in the energy sector acc
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The share of household expenditures
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subsidization practices in the regi
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