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Glendale (PDF) - Hazard Mitigation Web Portal - State of California

Glendale (PDF) - Hazard Mitigation Web Portal - State of California

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Natural <strong>Hazard</strong>s <strong>Mitigation</strong> PlanCity <strong>of</strong> <strong>Glendale</strong>, <strong>California</strong>Section 3 – Risk Assessment4) Risk AnalysisThe purpose <strong>of</strong> this task is to estimate the potential losses in a geographic area over a givenperiod <strong>of</strong> time by assessing the damage, injuries, and financial costs likely to be sustained.This level <strong>of</strong> analysis involves using mathematical models. The two measurablecomponents <strong>of</strong> risk analysis are magnitude <strong>of</strong> the harm that may result and the likelihood <strong>of</strong>the harm occurring. Describing vulnerability in terms <strong>of</strong> dollar losses provides thecommunity and the <strong>State</strong> with a common framework by which to measure the potentialeffects <strong>of</strong> a given hazard on the assets <strong>of</strong> the area.5) Assessing Vulnerability/ Analyzing Development TrendsThis task provides a general description <strong>of</strong> land uses and development trends within thecommunity so that mitigation options can be considered in land use planning and futureland use decisions. This Plan provides comprehensive description <strong>of</strong> the character <strong>of</strong><strong>Glendale</strong> in the Community Pr<strong>of</strong>ile section (see Section 2). This description includes thegeography and environment, population and demographics, land use and development,housing and community development, employment and industry, and transportation andcommuting patterns. Analyzing these components <strong>of</strong> <strong>Glendale</strong> can help in identifyingpotential problem areas, and can serve as a guide for incorporating the goals and ideascontained in this <strong>Mitigation</strong> Plan into other community development plans.<strong>Hazard</strong> assessments are subject to the availability <strong>of</strong> hazard-specific data. Gathering data for ahazard assessment requires a commitment <strong>of</strong> resources on the part <strong>of</strong> participatingorganizations and agencies. Each hazard-specific section <strong>of</strong> the Plan includes a section onhazard identification using data and information from City, County or <strong>State</strong> agency sources.A loss estimate for the city <strong>of</strong> <strong>Glendale</strong> was conducted for the hazard <strong>of</strong> earthquakes. Thisestimate was done using HazUS, a standardized methodology for earthquake loss estimationbased on a geographic information system (GIS). HazUS was created as a project <strong>of</strong> theNational Institute <strong>of</strong> Building Sciences, funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA), and it is based on guidelines and procedures developed to make standardized lossestimates at a regional scale (allowing estimates to be compared from region to region). HazUSis designed for use by <strong>State</strong>, regional and local governments in planning for loss mitigation,emergency preparedness, response and recovery. HazUS addresses nearly all aspects <strong>of</strong> thebuilt environment, and many different types <strong>of</strong> losses, and newer components <strong>of</strong> the programallow loss estimates for hurricanes, and floods in addition to earthquakes. The earthquakecomponent has been tested against the experience <strong>of</strong> several past earthquakes, and against thejudgment <strong>of</strong> experts.The HAZUS analysis conducted for <strong>Glendale</strong> indicates that an earthquake on the Sierra Madre,Verdugo or Raymond faults has the potential to cause significant damage in the city. Anearthquake on either the Sierra Madre or Verdugo fault could cause moderate damage to asmany as 5,000 structures, amounting to about 15 percent <strong>of</strong> the total building stock in the area.An earthquake on any <strong>of</strong> these three faults also has the potential to impact several <strong>of</strong> <strong>Glendale</strong>’scritical and essential facilities: several schools and bridges are anticipated to be at leastmoderately damaged. The potable water and electricity systems are anticipated to be damagedsignificantly, with thousands <strong>of</strong> costumers potentially without water or power for days after theearthquake. Specifics regarding these earthquake loss estimates are provided in Section 6 <strong>of</strong> thisreport.Vulnerability assessments and risk analyses for the other hazards addressed in the Plan,including floods, wildfires, and landslides, were not conducted, although qualitative assessments2006 PAGE 3 - 3

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