Glendale (PDF) - Hazard Mitigation Web Portal - State of California
Glendale (PDF) - Hazard Mitigation Web Portal - State of California
Glendale (PDF) - Hazard Mitigation Web Portal - State of California
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Natural <strong>Hazard</strong>s <strong>Mitigation</strong> PlanCity <strong>of</strong> <strong>Glendale</strong>, <strong>California</strong>Section 6 – EarthquakesHAZUS Scenario Earthquakes for the <strong>Glendale</strong> AreaFive specific scenario earthquakes were modeled using the HAZUS loss estimation s<strong>of</strong>twareavailable from FEMA: earthquakes on the San Andreas, Sierra Madre, Verdugo, Raymond andHollywood faults (see Table 6-5).Fault Source MagnitudeSan Andreas -Mojave SegmentTable 6-5: HAZUS Scenario Earthquakes for the City <strong>of</strong> <strong>Glendale</strong>7.1DescriptionA large earthquake that ruptures the Mojave segment <strong>of</strong> the SanAndreas fault is modeled because <strong>of</strong> its high probability <strong>of</strong> occurrence,even though the epicenter would not be too close to the City.Sierra Madre 7.2Verdugo 6.7Raymond 6.5Hollywood 6.4Likely worst-case scenario for the <strong>Glendale</strong> area. The 7.2 magnitudeearthquake modeled is at the lower range <strong>of</strong> the size <strong>of</strong> earthquakes thatresearchers now believe this fault is capable <strong>of</strong> generating.Possible worst-case scenario for <strong>Glendale</strong>. Although this earthquake isnot as large as the one estimated on the Sierra Madre fault, this faultextends through an extensively developed area, and therefore has thepotential to cause significant damage to buildings and infrastructure.Maximum magnitude earthquake on the Raymond fault. This fault nearthe southern portion <strong>of</strong> the City could cause significant damage in thesouthern and eastern portions <strong>of</strong> <strong>Glendale</strong>, and in the San Rafael Hills.Maximum magnitude earthquake on the Hollywood fault would causeextensive damage in Hollywood, West Hollywood, and in thesouthwestern portion <strong>of</strong> <strong>Glendale</strong>. This fault could break together withthe Santa Monica faults, generating a stronger, more damagingearthquake than the one presented herein.Four <strong>of</strong> the five earthquake scenarios modeled for this study are discussed in the followingsections. An earthquake on the San Andreas fault is discussed because it has the highestprobability <strong>of</strong> occurring in the not too distant future, even though the loses expected from thisearthquake are not the worst possible for <strong>Glendale</strong>. An earthquake on the San Andreas fault hastraditionally been considered the “Big One,” the implication being that an earthquake on thisfault would be devastating to southern <strong>California</strong>. However, there are several other seismicsources that, given their location closer to the Los Angeles metropolitan area, have the potentialto be more devastating to the region, even if the causative earthquake is smaller in magnitudethan an earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The 7.1 magnitude San Andreas earthquakemodeled for this study would result from the rupture <strong>of</strong> the Mojave segment <strong>of</strong> the fault. Thissegment is thought to have more than a 40 percent probability <strong>of</strong> rupturing in the next 30years. A larger-magnitude earthquake on the San Andreas fault would occur if more than onesegment <strong>of</strong> the fault ruptures at the same time. If all three southern segments <strong>of</strong> the SanAndreas fault break together, an earthquake <strong>of</strong> at least magnitude 7.8 would result.The Sierra Madre and Verdugo scenarios are also presented here because both <strong>of</strong> these faultshave the potential to cause significant damage in the City. As discussed in Section 1.5.5, theSierra Madre fault appears to have last ruptured more than 8,000 years ago, and may be nearthe end <strong>of</strong> its strain accumulation cycle. Given that recent studies suggest that the Sierra Madre2006 PAGE 6 - 40