Boston - American Association for Thoracic Surgery

89 TH ANNUAL MEETING MAY 9–MAY 13, 2009BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTSMONDAY MORNINGMAY 11, 20097:30 a.m. BUSINESS SESSION(AATS Members Only)Ballroom A–C, Hynes Convention Center7:45 a.m. PLENARY SCIENTIFIC SESSIONBallroom A–C, Hynes Convention Center(8 minutes presentation, 12 minutes discussion)1. A Formidable Task: Population Analysis Predicts a Deficit of 2,000Cardiothoracic Surgeons by 2030Thomas E. Williams, * Benjamin Sun, Patrick Ross, Andrew M. ThomasSurgery, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USAInvited Discussant: Irving L. KronOBJECTIVE: To estimate the cardiovascular workforce needed by 2030 to meet theneeds of our population and to quantify its costs. Our field is changing. The volumeof surgery and the nature of the surgery are changing. The nation’s populationgrew from 227,000,000 to 282,000,000 between 1980 and 2000, and by 2050 thepopulation will be 420,000,000. At the same time, the applications for fellowshipin our specialty are decreasing at an alarming rate. The ABTS has certified 4,500CT surgeons since 1975, but only 1300 in the last ten years. The United StatesDepartment of Health and Human Services predicts only 3,620 full time CT surgeonsin 2020.Will we have enough cardiovascular and thoracic surgeons? While the volume ofcoronary revascularization surgery may or not increase, the volume of lung surgerywill increase. Certainly the volume of heart failure surgery will increase – mitralvalve repairs, ventricular restoration, and VAD’s.POPULATION IN 2030 364,000,000CARDIOTHORACIC SURGEONS NEEDED 5,169CARDIOTHORACIC SURGEONS IN PRACTICE 3,175SHORTAGE 1,994ESTIMATED TO BE CERTIFIED 2011 TO 2030 2,000CERTIFICATION GOAL 2011 TO 2030 3,994RESIDENTS CERTIFIED EACH YEAR 200TOTAL MAN YEARS AT 7 PER RESIDENT 27,958DME COSTS AT \$80,000 PER YEAR OF RESIDENT TRAINING \$2,236,640,000ANNUAL COSTS \$111,832,000* AATS Member70