PHOENIX – A fire characterization model for ... - People.stat.sfu.ca

PHOENIX – A dynamic fire characterizationsimulation tool for Bushfire Risk ManagementDr Kevin Tolhurst, Derek Chong & Alastair PittsSchool of Forest and Ecosystem Science, University of Melbourne© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Fields Workshop on Disturbances: Modelling Spread in Forests22-23 November 2007, Uni. Western Ontario, Canada

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Werribee Gorge, 2007

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Dookie 2007

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Wattle Flat, 10 yrs since fire

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006The Bushfire Risk Management ModelPerformanceMeasuresFire ImpactModel(consequence)BusinessModel(mitigation)Fire CharacterizationModel(likelihood)

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Business Model - Likelihood & ConsequencePreventionPreparednessResponseRecoveryRegime Mgt.IgnitionsourceprobabilitySpreadrateintensityfrequencysizeImpactvulnerabilityresiliencePHOENIX

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006PHOENIX - A dynamic model1. Short-distance spotting (< 200 m).2. Progressive inclusion / exclusion of fuel strata.3. Long-distance spotting (> 15 mins ahead).4. Burning ember travel time and path.5. Calculation time-step based on spread rate.6. Dynamic suppression effects.7. Suppression rates respond to fire intensity,terrain, fuels, and access.8. Local wind speeds and fuel moisture.9. Local fuel and terrain.10.Scaleable in time and space.

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006“Grid Crawling”Figure 8 – Unconstrained point spread on the left vs. the cell constrained approach on theright representing a single time step. In the unconstrained approach, the resulting point hasjumped over 5 cells based on the resulting distance and direction calculated at its originalposition. In the cell constrained approach a new rate of spread and direction is calculatedat the intersected cell’s boundary, indicated by the green dots. Changes in fuel types andloads can affect the calculated rate of spread and topology, the direction of spread.

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Inputs1. Model inputs have to be defined in a waythat reflect their interaction characteristics.e.g. Fuelsa) Fuel moisture – interaction with atmosphereb) Flammability – heat absorption, combustionc) Embers – abundance, lofting, burnout, ignitiond) Plume – energy release rate, total heat output, emissionse) Suppression – radiation, embers, ease of extinction

INPUTSFuel TypesDATA MANAGEMENTGeospatial DatabaseFIRE GRIDFire GridCreationWind ReductionFactorsFire HistoryTopographyMODELSFire BehaviourBehaviour Models(McArthur MkV, CSIRO grass)Spotting(Indraught, Ember transport, Ignition)Slope Correction(Wind-Slope interaction)Wind Field Models(Wind Wizard, Wind Ninja)Road Impact(Fuel-free linear features)Solar Radiation Model(Fuel Moisture in space & time)Fire PerimeterPropagationPoint Spread Modeling(Huygen’s, Discrete Event CA)Self-Extinction(Moisture, Fuel, Fire Intensity)Fuel Accumulation(Time Since Fire)Reprojection on Map(Surface to Plan conversion)Suppression Model(Resources, Fuels, Topo, Fire)OUTPUTS(to Fire Grid)FIRE:ORIGINEXTENTINTENSITYFREQUENCYFLAME HEIGHTSIZE (AREA)TIME TO IMPACTSPOTTINGAssets & ValuesRoad ProximityWeatherSuppressionResources

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management ModelVegType FuelCode No. Description Fuel CharacteristicsBare NIL 0 Water, sand, no vegetation fuel absentHerbs H01 30 Moorland / Fjaeldmarks low flammability cushion plantsH02 36 Alpine Herbland dense, upright, low flammability herbsH03 34 Wet herbland freshwater herbs on mud flatsH03 37 Wet Herbland low herbs in seasonally inundated lakebeds or wetlandsGrass/sedges G01 16 High Elevation Grassland dense sward of tussock grasses or herbs, high coverG02 4 Moist Sedgeland / Grassland dense sward, potentially high dead component, button grassG03 29 Ephemeral grass/sedge/herbs dense grass and sedges with potentially high levels of dead suspended materialG04 20 Temperate Grassland / Sedgeland grasses and sedges widespread, but varying in biomassG05 44 Hummock grassland hummock grassland, discontinuous surface fuelsShrubs S01 17 High Elevation Shrubland/Heath dense cover of shrubs with surface fuel largely under plantsS02 14 Riparian shrubland dense vegetation with little dead materialS03 35 Wet Scrub flammable shrubland with high level of dead elevated fuelsS04 1 Moist Shrubland dense shrubland, salt affectedS05 31F03Dry Closed Shrubland13tea-tree orRiparianpaperbark thickets, littleForestunderstoreyshrubS06 21 Broombush / Shrubland / Tea-tree dense shrubland, but with relatively low level of dead materialS07 10 F04 Sparse shrubland 11 sparse shrubby Wet vegetation Forest with discontinuous surface fuelsS08 3 Low flammable Shrubs low flammability except Fine shrubafter exceptional rain fuel &bringing grasses strata: wiregrassS09 38 Mangroves / Aquatic Herbs trees, shrubs and herbs in permanent water, unburnableF05 12 Damp Forest shrubHeaths S10 23 Wet Heath dense heath possibly with dense sedgy undergrowthS11 24 Dry Heath dense heath with significant amounts of dead materialMallee M01 27 F06 Mallee chenopod 40 low flammability Semi-mesic except after exceptional rain bringing grassesM02 42 Mallee grass mallee woodland with predominantly •Sclerophyllgrass SurfaceforestunderstoreyM03 25 Mallee shrub/heath continuous shrub layer but amount of dead material depending on species presentF07 33 Swamp ForestM04 26 Mallee spinifex discontinuous fuels, very flammable under windy conditionsWoodland W01 18 High Elevation Woodland shrub wooded area with shrubby understoreyW02 19 F08 High Elevation Woodland grass 6 wooded area Forest with continuous with grass tussocks shrubW03 97 Orchard / Vineyard orchard vineyardW04 2F09Moist Woodland7low trees,Forestshrubby, sedgyherb-richunderstorey, bark hazardW05 22 Woodland bracken/shrubby wooded area with varying understorey, but not heathyW06 9 Woodland Grass/Herb-rich surface fuels dominated by grass and herbsW07 5 F10 Woodland Heath 45 flammable Dry shrubs and Forest high bark hazard shrubsW08 41 Gum Woodland heath/shrub gum woodland with moderate bark hazard, • Elevatedheath/shrub understoreyW09 43 F11 Gum Woodland grass/herbs 8 gum woodland Dry with Open moderate bark Forest hazard, herbaceous shrub/herbsunderstoreyW10 39 Savanna grasslands tall flammable grasses in an open woodlandW11 28 Woodland Callitris/Belah low flammability except after exceptional rain bringing grassesForest F01 15 Rainforest dense vegetation with little dead material, epiphytes, vines, ferns, rarely dryF02 32 Wet Forest with rainforest understorewet sclerophyll forest with mesic understorey • BarkF03 13 P02 Riparian Forest shrub 99 dense vegetation Hardwood but with a small proportion Plantationof dead materialF04 11 Wet Forest shrub & wiregrass high biomass forest, but with little dead suspended material unless wiregrass presentF05 12 Damp Forest shrub dense understorey and potentially high bark hazard (karri)F06 40 Semi-mesic Sclerophyll forest forest with semi-mesic shurbs and flammable grasses, sedge understoreyF07 33 Swamp Forest dense Melaleuca forest with little understorey • (Canopy)F08 6 Forest with shrub potentially high bark hazard, shrubs moderate flammability (mixed jarrah/karri)F09 7 Forest herb-rich potentially high bark hazard, little elevated fuelF10 45 Dry Forest shrubs dry forest with continuous understorey, (southern jarrah)F11 8 Dry Open Forest shrub/herbs dry forest with open understorey (northern jarrah)Plantations P01 98 Softwood Plantation dense canopy with continuous surface fuelsP02 99 Hardwood Plantation uniform canopy with continuous surface fuels© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Forest F01 15 RainforestF02 32 Wet Forest with rainforest understorePlantations P01 98 Softwood Plantation• Near-surface

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006WindFuel Load (t/ha) Total ReductionNo. Description Surface Elevated Bark Load Factor15 Rainforest 9.1 0.4 0.3 9.8 532 Wet Forest with rainforest understore 15.8 0.4 7.0 23.1 4.513 Riparian Forest shrub 15.8 4.5 5.6 26.0 511 Wet Forest shrub & wiregrass 26.2 10.0 7.0 43.1 4.512 Damp Forest shrub 22.1 9.1 7.2 38.5 440 Semi-mesic Sclerophyll forest 15.8 1.8 5.1 22.7 3.533 Swamp Forest 2.6 0.1 0.5 3.2 46 Forest with shrub 19.5 6.1 5.4 31.0 3.57 Forest herb-rich 13.9 1.8 5.4 21.1 345 Dry Forest shrubs 15.8 1.8 5.1 22.7 3.58 Dry Open Forest shrub/herbs 8.7 1.8 1.8 12.3 398 Softwood Plantation 15.8 1.8 0.3 18.0 4.599 Hardwood Plantation 13.9 0.1 5.1 19.0 4“Surface” = Surface + Near-surface

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 200625002000y = 1692.7e -0.5287xR 2 = 0.9875Rate (m/h)1500100050000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Bark FF load (t/ha)Effect of bark fuel on large tanker (4000 litres) suppression rate

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 20060.800.700.60Shade (0 - 1)0.500.400.300.200.100.001 2 3 4 5 6 7Wind Reduction FactorUsing the Wind Reduction Factor to estimate the degree of shading forfine fuel moisture modelling

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 20064.54.0Hazard Level (0-5)3.53.02.52.01.51.0y=r = 3.5k = 0.16c = 0.5− k*t( ) r 1−exp + c0.50.00 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Time Since Fire (yrs)An example of a fuel accumulation curve with time since fire.

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Fuel AttributeThickness of fuel elementsProportion of dead fine fuel in thefuel bedDegree of horizontal continuityHeight of each fuel strata (top andbottom)Mass of fuel in each stratumImportance to Fire Behaviour• rate of heat & moisture transfer• ease of ignition• residence time• air : fuel mixture (± essential oils) (moistureto volatile mixture)• heat transfer• horizontal spread thresholds (wind speed,flame height)• heat transfer efficiency.• combustible air : fuel mixture.• flame height• inclusion / exclusion in flaming zone• energy available

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Fuel AttributeThickness of fuelelementsProportion of dead finefuel in the fuel bedDegree of horizontalcontinuityHeight of each fuel strata(top and bottom)Mass of fuel in eachstratumPossible Measurement Parameters(for each fuel stratum)Predominant fine fuel that will carry fire:• Super Fine (xs < 2 mm 2 )• Medium Fine (xs 3 – 10 mm 2 )• Fine (xs > 10 mm 2 )% live fine fuel as proportion of stratum by dry weight(estimated to the nearest 10%).• Fuelbed clump bulk density (kg/m 3 , nearest 10 kg/m 3 )• Average gap size between clumps within patch (m/10m)• Average gap size between clumps and patches (m/100m)• Average height from soil surface to bottom of fuelbed(m, 0.1m resolution or 10% of height, which ever is the greater)• Average height from soil surface to top of fuelbed(m, 0.1m resolution or 10% of height, which ever is the greater)• Average fuel load in each strata (t/ha, kg/m 2 )

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006“Disruptive” areasRoad Proximity:1. Fuel break, therefore drop in fire intensity.2. Access for suppression, therefore enhances suppression rate.

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Self-extinction

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Accounting for convection1.210.8ROS factor0.60.40.200 2 4 6 8 10 12 14Effective fuel loadRate of spread scaling factor for “grassland” fuel types with fuelloads greater or less than 6 t/ha.

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Probability of spotfires - embersMaximum ember density(#/m2/min)10.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.101 2 3 4 5Bark hazard scoreMaximum ember density with numerical bark hazard score.Theoretical relationship from MacAulay 2003.

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Probability of spotfires - ignitionPr(Ignition) (%)100.090.080.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.00.00 5 10 15 20 25 30FFMC (%)Probability of fuel-bed ignition by embers with fine fuel moisturecontent. Theoretical relationship from MacAulay 2003.

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Probability of spotfires - ignition1.201.00Ignition Probability (0-1)0.800.600.400.200.000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Surface Fine Fuel (t/ha)Effect of surface fine fuel quantity on the probability of emberssuccessfully starting a spotfire.

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Diurnal variation in fine fuel moisture - radiation14.0012.0010.008.006.004.002.00Fine Fuel Moisture Content (%)0.0015/01/2005 2:2415/01/2005 4:4815/01/2005 7:1215/01/2005 9:3615/01/2005 12:0015/01/2005 14:2415/01/2005 16:4815/01/2005 19:1215/01/2005 21:3616/01/2005 0:0016/01/2005 2:2416/01/2005 4:4816/01/2005 7:1216/01/2005 9:3616/01/2005 12:0016/01/2005 14:2416/01/2005 16:4816/01/2005 19:1216/01/2005 21:3617/01/2005 0:0017/01/2005 2:24TimeAn example of how the solar radiation function affects fine fuel moisture content in the McArthurmodel. The fuel moistures shown are for constant temperature (20 o C) and relative humidity (50%).

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006GIS presentationof data:isochrones,intensity

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006ACTUALDeans Marsh FireAsh Wednesday 198319,056 ha(fire intensity)

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Apollo Bay, Nov 2007

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 200610% p.a.Deans Marsh FireAsh Wednesday 198310 yrs fire cycle (10% p.a.)13,221 ha(fire intensity)

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 20065% p.a.Deans Marsh FireAsh Wednesday 198320 yrs fire cycle (5% p.a.)15,467 ha(fire intensity)

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 20062.5% p.a.Deans Marsh FireAsh Wednesday 198340 yrs fire cycle (2.5% p.a.)17,049 ha(fire intensity)

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Deans Marsh FireAsh Wednesday 19836 km wide strategic corridor10 yrs fire cycle (10% p.a.)16,983 ha(fire intensity)

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Deans Marsh FireAsh Wednesday 19836 km wide strategic corridor50% 10 yrs fire cycle (10% p.a.)18,062 ha(fire intensity)

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006% Area Burnt100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%FirelineIntensity(kW/m)>20,0003,000-20,0000-3,000Unburnt0%Actual10yrcycle20yrcycle40yrcycleCorridor10yrcycleChequer10yr50%10% 5% 2.5% 1.8% 0.9% per annum

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006NthHarrisAssetsHG_roadSth

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006TimeBurnt

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Intensity

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Rate ofSpread

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006ForestFDI

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006IgnitionProbability(unknown)

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Fire started at 16:30

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006ConsequenceCauseUnknown/10,000CauseAccident/10,000LikelihoodCauseArson/10,000CauseLightning/10,000Risk(10,000fire*ha)FireControlledSize (ha)All Causes/10,000Roses Gap 13,970 5 7 25 60 97 135.5Roses Gap E1 9,244 5 25 15 60 105 97.1Roses Gap E2 15,946 5 25 5 25 60 95.7Roses Gap E3 1,686 10 7 5 5 27 4.6Roses Gap E4 4,632 10 1 5 5 21 9.7Roses Gap E5 6,154 5 1 5 5 16 9.8Roses Gap E6 13,960 5 1 5 5 16 22.3Roses Gap E7 19,036 5 1 5 5 16 30.5Mt Difficult 8 5 7 40 230 282 0.2Mt Difficult E1 9,216 5 50 40 170 265 244.2Mt Difficult E2 12 10 75 15 70 170 0.2Mt Difficult E3 668 15 25 5 10 55 3.7Mt Difficult E4 356 15 1 5 5 26 0.9Deep Lead 8,584 15 1 5 5 26 22.3Mt Difficult E5 13,742 10 25 5 10 50 68.7

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006FirstAttackdelayed30 minFirstAttackdelayed60 min No Aircraft No D6+ 50% CFAControlled UncontrolledFire(ha) (%)Roses Gap 13,970 141 100 106 108 109 107Roses Gap E1 9,244 305 108 109 114 104 112Roses Gap E2 15,946 198 98 100 98 100 103Roses Gap E3 1,686 795 105 110 99 105 110Roses Gap E4 4,632 447 106 119 102 102 134Roses Gap E5 6,154 548 100 186 100 100 161Roses Gap E6 13,960 258 99 126 97 110 117Roses Gap E7 19,036 272 92 106 100 99 107Mt Difficult 8 27,275 175 225 100 100 175Mt Difficult E1 9,216 324 94 116 106 103 111Mt Difficult E2 12 205,017 69,417 90,400 100 100 100Mt Difficult E3 668 1,529 107 118 96 95 105Mt Difficult E4 356 1,647 108 119 98 98 111Deep Lead 8,584 292 96 94 97 117 133Mt Difficult E5 13,742 225 94 130 127 126 15115,952 4,727 6,144 103 105 122

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Future Developments1. Multiple fires, set weather & suppressionscenarios. (Planning strategic fuel management,prevention strategies)2. Asset impact reporting.3. Sequence of fires across a season withsuppression resources moving and resting.(Readiness and response planning, resource levels, multiplesimultaneous fires).4. Convection – the third dimension ?

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Implications1. We need a single method of fuel descriptionthat takes the Overall Fuel Hazard Guidefurther.2. We need to develop a generic fire behaviourmodel that is based on generic fueldescriptors not fuel types.3. We need to find a simple way to incorporatethe effect of plume indraughts andconvective heat into fire behaviour models.4. We need fire impact models to betterquantify different fire management options.

Program A.4 Bushfire Risk Management Model© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2006Thank You