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Managing technological discontinuitiesHow Information & Communication Technologies can change your businessThe winners are found amongthose who can capture,protect and internalize ‘new toindustry‘ and ‘new to world‘technologies.“ The increasingimportance of Information andCommunication Technologies(ICT) for innovation in manyindustry sectors comes withnew opportunities for competitiveadvantage. A systematicapproach to dealing with thepotential impact of ICT is crucialfor future success.Information and CommunicationTechnologies (ICT) are now anintegral part of our environmentand are among the most importantdrivers for innovation inmany industry sectors. Whethercomplex control technologiesin the field of machine tools,fly-by-wire systems in theaircraft industry or intelligentcomponents in moderncars, everyday lifewithout ICT is no longerconceivable. Moreover,the contribution of ICTto value creation in theproduction of consumerand industrial goods willcontinue to grow.One of the consequencesof the digitalization of theeconomy is a complete or partialreplacement of establishedtechnologies. ICT solutions can,for example, take on functionsthat have been provided for byother technologies and replacethem completely. A second possibility,one that is less radicalbut equally significant, is theaddition of new functions toproducts through the integrationof ICT components, witholder technologies becoming lessimportant as a result.Such changes are known asThe future of urban mobilityTowards networked, multimodal cities of 2050Management consultancyArthur D. Little’s newglobal study of urban mobilityassesses the mobility maturityand performance of 66 citiesworldwide and finds most notjust falling well short of bestpractice but in a state of crisis.Indeed it is not puttingit too strongly tosay that many cities’mobility systems arestanding on a burningplatform and if actionis not taken in thevery near future theywill play a major rolein slowing the growthand development oftheir host nations.What is needed is innovativechange. This report highlightswhat is holding them back,showcases best practice andidentifies three strategic imperativesfor cities and threeclusters of future business modelsfor mobility suppliers thatwill enable cities to meet theurban mobility challenge.MethodologyArthur D. Little assessed themobility maturity and performanceof 66 cities worldwideusing 11 criteria ranging frompublic transport’s share of themodal mix and the number ofcars per capita to average travelspeed and transport-relatedCO2 emissions. The mobilityscore per city ranges from 0 to100 index points; the maximumof 100 points is defined by thebest performance of any cityin the sample for each criteria.In addition the study reviewedand analyzed 39 key urbanmobility technologies and 36potentialurban mobilitybusinessmodels.Plotting thetrendThe world’spopulation isincreasinglycity-based;50% or 3.5billion peoplecurrently live in urban areasand by 2050 this is expected toreach 70% of the population or6.3 billion people.Urban mobility is one of thetoughest challenges that citiestechnological discontinuitiesor leaps. The jump to a newtechnological path is attendedby a range of opportunities forbusiness, but posessignificant challengesas well.However, despite theirundoubted importance,ICT are not theuniversal solution toevery innovation challenge,and should notbe overrated, especiallygiven the speed at which theyare developing. Many expertsstill see a huge need for furtherresearch in the field of ICT torealize the manifold visions of adigital world.face; accordingly, we will seemassive investment in thefuture. Today, 64% of all travelkilometers made are urban andthe amount of travel withinurban areas is expected totriple by 2050. Being able toget around urban areas quickly,conveniently and with littleenvironmental impact is criticalto their success.Existing mobility systems areclose to breakdown. By 2050,the average time an urbandweller spends in traffic jamswill be 106 hours per year, threetimes more than today. Deliveringurban mobility will requiremore and more resources. In2050 urban mobility will:•• Cost €829bn per year acrossthe globe, more than fourtimes higher than in 1990.•• Use 17.3% of the planet’sbio-capacities, which is fivetimes more than in 1990.30 www.teletimesinternational.comDecember 2011