lonely-planet-myanmar-burma-11-edition

316POLITICS, ECONOMICS & SANCTIONS POLITICSTHE FICTION OF MYANMAR STATISTICS‘Facts are negotiated more than they are observed in Myanmar’, writes David Steinbergin Burma/Myanmar: What Everyone Needs to Know. ‘Statistics are often impreciseor manipulated, caused by internal political considerations or insufficient data, andbiased externally by a lack of access to materials.’ Under such circumstances, economicpolicy becomes pretty much guesswork.Even a basic figure such as Myanmar’s population is elusive. The Chinese news agencyXinhua quotes the government’s 2009 official figure of 59.12 million, while the AsianDevelopment Bank has it at 58.84 million and the CIA World Factbook at 54 million.Sean Turnell, an expert on Myanmar’s economy at Sydney’s Macquarie University,isn’t surprised by this 10% spread. ‘The last full census was back in 1913’, he says, pointingout that all subsequent attempts at a head count, including the oft-quoted censusof 1983, have been compromised by lack of data from parts of the country experiencingrebellions and unrest.Where we give population figures in this guide, they should only be taken as estimatesthat try to gauge the relative size of different towns and cities. Statistics provided by theMyanmar government should be regarded at best as an indicator and at worst as purefiction.Ethnic Politicsin Burma: TheTime for Solutions,a reportby the TransnationalInstitute(http://tinyurl.com /3o4pcqs)makes for soberingreading on aland in politicaltransition andethnic crisis.Bribery is partof all businessin Myanmar. Theowners of oneprivate guesthouseowner toldus they have tobribe their taxofficial. ‘We paythe tax man 25%of the taxes wewould have paid.He’s a very richman.’from the military or pro-military parties. In the new and all-powerfulNational Defence and Security Council, only one of its eleven members isgenuinely civilian, and that member comes from the pro-military UnionSolidarity and Development Party.’ A post-election report from the InternationalCrisis Group (www.tinyurl.com/6e4omqk) is more cautiouslyhopeful, noting that while ‘changes are unlikely to translate into dramaticreforms in the short term…they provide a new governance context,improving the prospects for incremental reform.’Many people continue to speculate about the role of Than Shwe, whoretired as the head of the military in March 2011. It’s commonly thoughthe continues to pull strings from behind the scenes in much the sameway that Ne Win once did. Than Shwe, however, will be well aware ofNe Win’s fate: the one-time strongman of Myanmar died in 2002, unceremoniouslyburied, with some of his family jailed for their alleged rolesin planning a coup a few months earlier. The constitution contains provisionsto stop attempts to prosecute Than Shwe and other top militarybrass for crimes committed under their watch – but the rule of law hascounted for little in Myanmar over the last half century.National League for DemocracyFounded on 27 September 1988, the National League for Democracy(NLD; www.nldburma.org) is the best known of Myanmar’s pro-democracyorganisations, thanks to its iconic leader Aung San Suu Kyi. It wonthe 1990 election in a landslide victory that the ruling junta ignored;many of its members were subsequently thrown into prison; others wentinto self-imposed exile (see p 303 ).Unhappy with the revised constitution pushed through by the governmentin 2008, the NLD called for a boycott of the October 2010 elections,in turn causing the military junta to declare the party illegal. This decisioncaused a division within the NLD that resulted in senior membersof the organisation, Dr Than Nyein and Khin Maung Swe, leaving toform the National Democratic Force (NDF), a party that did contest the2010 poll.Since the election the NDF has split into two factions, with some electedMPs committed to staying in the new party and others stating that atany upcoming election they would rejoin the NLD.