Global Fissile Material Report 2009: A Path to Nuclear Disarmament

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Figure 3.2. History of U.S. plutonium productionby year and site from the 1996 declaration. TheHanford reservation on the Columbia River inWashington State is the site where the U.S. built itsfirst plutonium-production reactors during WorldWar II and produced the plutonium for the Trinitybomb test on July 16, 1945 and for the Nagasakibomb. Ultimately, nine reactors were built there, allgraphite moderated. The Savannah River site is nearColumbia, South Carolina. All the five reactors builthere were heavy-water moderated and were usedfor tritium as well as plutonium production.Figure 3.3. U.S. stocks of highly enriched uraniumat Department of Energy sites as of 30 September1996. 131 Miscellaneous sites held 3.7 tons of HEU,bringing the total inventory at DOE sites to about290 tons. Based on the declared total U.S. inventoryof 740.7 tons, this left more than 440 tons of HEU atDepartment of Defense sites.36 Global Fissile Material Report 2009
Figure 3.4. Evolution of the U.S. stockpile of HEUsince production ended in 1992. Based on the 1996HEU inventory and subsequent declarations of excessmaterial, the structure of the U.S. HEU stockpiletoday can be estimated quite well. About 250 tons ofHEU remain available for use in weapons—enoughfor 10,000 warheads.Approaches to Verifying Historic Production of Fissile MaterialsAt the level of declarations of total fissile material production, other governments’ experts,an international agency or independent analysts could compare declared materialproduction to their own independent assessments. The United States and Russiaeach devoted substantial resources over the past decades to studying each other’s andother countries nuclear complexes and would be able to make their own consistencychecks on production-history declarations.For example, during the Cold War, the United States and maybe other states monitoredkrypton-85 concentrations in the atmosphere as a way of estimating global plutoniumproduction. Whenever irradiated spent fuel is dissolved in acid to recover plutonium,gaseous fission products are released from this fuel. Radioactive isotopes of the noblegases are emitted to the atmosphere because they pose little risk to the environment.Among these, krypton-85 is a particularly useful indicator for reprocessing because itsconcentration in the irradiated fuel scales directly with the amount of fission in thefuel. Also, due to its half-life of 10.8 years, krypton-85 gradually accumulates in theatmosphere (Figure 3.5). Another example is discussed in Appendix 3B, which presentsan independent estimate of North Korea‘s plutonium production based on computersimulations. Such calculations can be further refined once more information about aweapons program become available.While sizable uncertainties are likely, transparency in the process can yield verificationconfidence. Thus the declaration should include the methods used in arriving at theestimates of historical production, and, where possible, the original records used in thisestimation. Outside experts then could repeat the analysis and perhaps find alternativemeans of cross-checking the results. For instance, while material shipment records atplutonium-production reactors can yield an estimate of the total plutonium separatedfrom spent fuel, the power produced by the reactors can also be used to arrive at thesame numbers. The more records that are made public as part of the initial declaration,the more cross-checking that is possible. Where multiple means of determining totalproduction are possible, large uncertainties in a single estimate are less disconcerting.Global Fissile Material Report 2009 37
Page 5: Table of ContentsAbout the IPFM 1Fo
Page 8 and 9: ForewordOver the past year, the imp
Page 12: Verified warhead dismantlement. A c
Page 17 and 18: China. Over the past year, there ap
Page 19 and 20: Figure 1.2. National stocks of high
Page 21 and 22: 1400 kg that were used annually in
Page 30 and 31: 2 Fissile Materials andNuclear Disa
Page 32 and 33: The number of nuclear weapon states
Page 34 and 35: Figure 2.3. An Advanced CruiseMissi
Page 36 and 37: discussed both rationing access to
Page 38 and 39: 3 Declarations of Fissile MaterialS
Page 40 and 41: Declarations of fissile material in
Page 44 and 45: If declarations are made early and
Page 46 and 47: Even without such concerns, it coul
Page 48 and 49: Appendix 3A. The U.S. Plutonium and
Page 50 and 51: of nuclear materials, including all
Page 52 and 53: also on all exports and imports of
Page 54 and 55: Appendix 3B.Estimating Plutonium-Pr
Page 56 and 57: Thermal power 20-25 MWt Effective c
Page 58 and 59: 4 Nuclear ArchaeologyVerification o
Page 60 and 61: Between 1992 and 1998, the U.S. Pac
Page 62 and 63: econstructed from the plant’s was
Page 64 and 65: Figure 4.5. Integrated operation of
Page 66 and 67: Figure 4.7. Fissile material produc
Page 68 and 69: • Traces of neptunium. Radioactiv
Page 70 and 71: • conduct all verification activi
Page 72 and 73: When necessary, the verification re
Page 74 and 75: The various aspects of verified war
Page 76 and 77: The numbers of warheads and compone
Page 78 and 79: Quantities of fissile materials in
Page 80 and 81: Figure 5.5. Nuclear-WeaponsIdentifi
Page 82 and 83: There has been considerable skeptic
Page 84 and 85: Below, the ongoing efforts in Russi
Page 86 and 87: down per year. At this blend-down r
Page 88 and 89: Until one or both of these strategi
Page 90 and 91: Of those options, the study found t
Page 92 and 93:
With regard to the reprocessing of
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weapon-grade plutonium at its Dimon
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IPFM graphics redrawn from Bulletin
Page 100 and 101:
Any new production of HEU for react
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The IAEA could similarly use instru
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2007. 327 Russia continues to produ
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The fusion research facility ITER i
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in fact, produce tritium in reactor
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On the other hand, some argue that
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Although we are assuming a world wi
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Countries with reprocessing. Countr
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Figure 8.6. Enrichment level of the
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Transition PeriodThe discussion so
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9 Societal VerificationThe concept
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After the war, Szilard and others e
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The historical record with regard t
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The limitations of the safeguards s
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Understandably, states that provide
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Appendix AFissile Materials and Nuc
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high-density spherical mass. The co
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Figure A.4. The fast-neutron critic
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IsotopeCritical Mass[kg]Half Life[y
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Appendix BWorldwide Locations ofNuc
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IndiaCountry Location/Name Region/P
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RussiaCountry Location/Name Region/
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Country Location/Name Region/Provin
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14.Military Power of the People’s
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44.The French company Areva is plan
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73.An industry source specified 9.1
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102.United Nations Security Council
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Chapter 3. Declarations of Fissile
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153.The design of the UK’s 50 MWe
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185.For example, graphite of the Fr
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210.Robert Norris and Hans Kristens
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237.Arms Control and Nonproliferati
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263.See e.g. Report on the Savannah
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dissolved, leaving 753 tons of LWR
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311.See e.g. Mycle Schneider and Yv
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343.H. A. Feiveson, Latent Prolifer
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368.A. Glaser, “Characteristics o
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398.A recent U.S. Air Force survey
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IPFM Members, Other Contributors to
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Li Bin (Beijing, China, shared memb
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Annette Schaper (Frankfurt, Germany
Page 182 and 183:
Other Contributors to Global Fissil
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SGS Research and Administrative Sta
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Global Fissile Material Report 2009: A Path to Nuclear Disarmament

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