Global Fissile Material Report 2009: A Path to Nuclear Disarmament

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2 Fissile Materials andNuclear DisarmamentThe recognition of the need for nuclear disarmament and the question of how toachieve it are as old as the nuclear age. In June 1945, before the first nuclear weaponhad been built, in what became known as the Franck Report, a group of scientists workingon the U.S. atomic bomb program warned that:“The development of nuclear power is fraught with infinitelygreater dangers than were all the inventions of the past. […] Inthe past, science has often been able to provide adequate protectionagainst new weapons it has given into the hands of an aggressor,but it cannot promise such efficient protection againstthe destructive use of nuclear power. […] In the absence of aninternational authority which would make all resort to force ininternational conflicts impossible, nations could still be divertedfrom a path which must lead to total mutual destruction, by aspecific international agreement barring a nuclear armamentsrace.” 86In its first resolution, the United Nations General Assembly established a Commissionand tasked it to draw up plans “for the elimination from national armaments ofatomic weapons and of all other major weapons adaptable to mass destruction.” 87 TheAcheson-Lilienthal Report, authored largely by Robert Oppenheimer, and the officialU.S. and Soviet proposals to the United Nations (the Baruch and Gromyko Plans respectively)of 1946 were the most prominent attempts to realize this goal. 88 The GromykoPlan included the first proposed text for a nuclear disarmament treaty in the form ofa Draft International Convention to Prohibit the Production and Employment of WeaponsBased on the Use of Atomic Energy for the Purpose of Mass Destruction. 89In this chapter, we review briefly the effort to secure nuclear disarmament over the pastsix decades, the renewal of the nuclear debate over the past few years, and some of themajor issues this effort will need to address today.In succeeding chapters, we discuss in more detail some of these issues and the optionsfor accounting for and eliminating nuclear weapons and the fissile materials that makethem possible.24 Global Fissile Material Report 2009
Early effortsIn 1946, the elimination of nuclear weapons seemed a comparatively simple task. Therewas just one nuclear-weapon state, with an arsenal of about ten Nagasaki-type nuclearbombs. 90 Long-range missiles had not been developed, civil applications of nuclear energylay in the future, and the bureaucratic, military, industrial and doctrinal complexesand many of the rationales and justifications that would be erected around nuclearweapons during the Cold War had yet to come into being. The early hopes for nucleardisarmament were frustrated, however, by the onset of the Cold War and the nucleararms race between the United States and Soviet Union.Many states, organizations, civil society groups, and individuals including prominentscientists, held fast to the goal of nuclear disarmament (Figure 2.1). They could notachieve their ultimate goal but did help bring about agreements to limit nuclear weaponstesting and restrain the arms race. 91 The first diplomatic success was the 1963 partialTest Ban Treaty, which aimed to end nuclear weapons testing in the atmosphere,under water and in outer space (Figure 2.2). Unfortunately, it lifted the public pressureon governments to end explosive testing which continued unabated underground.Figure 2.1. Albert Einsteindeclares his opposition to theatomic bomb and to the armsrace between the United Statesand the Soviet Union in a pressconference in Princeton (10February 1950). Credit: NationalArchives and Records Administration,courtesy AIP EmilioSegrè Visual Archives.Figure 2.2. Linus Paulingoutside the White House, Washington,DC, protesting againstnuclear weapons testing (28April 1962). The following day,Pauling joined other NobelPrize Winners at a White Housemeeting called by PresidentKennedy to honor them. Credit:National Archives and RecordsAdministration, courtesy AIPEmilio Segrè Visual Archives.Global Fissile Material Report 2009 25
Page 5: Table of ContentsAbout the IPFM 1Fo
Page 8 and 9: ForewordOver the past year, the imp
Page 12: Verified warhead dismantlement. A c
Page 17 and 18: China. Over the past year, there ap
Page 19 and 20: Figure 1.2. National stocks of high
Page 21 and 22: 1400 kg that were used annually in
Page 32 and 33: The number of nuclear weapon states
Page 34 and 35: Figure 2.3. An Advanced CruiseMissi
Page 36 and 37: discussed both rationing access to
Page 38 and 39: 3 Declarations of Fissile MaterialS
Page 40 and 41: Declarations of fissile material in
Page 42 and 43: Figure 3.2. History of U.S. plutoni
Page 44 and 45: If declarations are made early and
Page 46 and 47: Even without such concerns, it coul
Page 48 and 49: Appendix 3A. The U.S. Plutonium and
Page 50 and 51: of nuclear materials, including all
Page 52 and 53: also on all exports and imports of
Page 54 and 55: Appendix 3B.Estimating Plutonium-Pr
Page 56 and 57: Thermal power 20-25 MWt Effective c
Page 58 and 59: 4 Nuclear ArchaeologyVerification o
Page 60 and 61: Between 1992 and 1998, the U.S. Pac
Page 62 and 63: econstructed from the plant’s was
Page 64 and 65: Figure 4.5. Integrated operation of
Page 66 and 67: Figure 4.7. Fissile material produc
Page 68 and 69: • Traces of neptunium. Radioactiv
Page 70 and 71: • conduct all verification activi
Page 72 and 73: When necessary, the verification re
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The various aspects of verified war
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The numbers of warheads and compone
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Quantities of fissile materials in
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Figure 5.5. Nuclear-WeaponsIdentifi
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There has been considerable skeptic
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Below, the ongoing efforts in Russi
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down per year. At this blend-down r
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Until one or both of these strategi
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Of those options, the study found t
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With regard to the reprocessing of
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weapon-grade plutonium at its Dimon
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IPFM graphics redrawn from Bulletin
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Any new production of HEU for react
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The IAEA could similarly use instru
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2007. 327 Russia continues to produ
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The fusion research facility ITER i
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in fact, produce tritium in reactor
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On the other hand, some argue that
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Although we are assuming a world wi
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Countries with reprocessing. Countr
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Figure 8.6. Enrichment level of the
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Transition PeriodThe discussion so
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9 Societal VerificationThe concept
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After the war, Szilard and others e
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The historical record with regard t
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The limitations of the safeguards s
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Understandably, states that provide
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Appendix AFissile Materials and Nuc
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high-density spherical mass. The co
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Figure A.4. The fast-neutron critic
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IsotopeCritical Mass[kg]Half Life[y
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Appendix BWorldwide Locations ofNuc
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IndiaCountry Location/Name Region/P
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RussiaCountry Location/Name Region/
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Country Location/Name Region/Provin
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14.Military Power of the People’s
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44.The French company Areva is plan
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73.An industry source specified 9.1
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102.United Nations Security Council
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Chapter 3. Declarations of Fissile
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153.The design of the UK’s 50 MWe
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185.For example, graphite of the Fr
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210.Robert Norris and Hans Kristens
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237.Arms Control and Nonproliferati
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263.See e.g. Report on the Savannah
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dissolved, leaving 753 tons of LWR
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311.See e.g. Mycle Schneider and Yv
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343.H. A. Feiveson, Latent Prolifer
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368.A. Glaser, “Characteristics o
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398.A recent U.S. Air Force survey
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IPFM Members, Other Contributors to
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Li Bin (Beijing, China, shared memb
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Annette Schaper (Frankfurt, Germany
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Other Contributors to Global Fissil
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SGS Research and Administrative Sta
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Global Fissile Material Report 2009: A Path to Nuclear Disarmament

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