System-of-Systems Engineering - Liophant Simulation
System-of-Systems Engineering - Liophant Simulation System-of-Systems Engineering - Liophant Simulation
Surrogate ModelsAre surrogate models the silver bullet? No,because:• They contain statistical error that maybe significant• Their applicability is limited by thedomain range of the DoE• The adequacy of a given surrogatemodel type depends on the nature ofbehavior it is meant to capture• They carry implicit assumptions thatcan be overlookedWhat kinds of surrogate models are there? Different surrogate models will capturevarying levels of complex behavior with agiven degree of accuracy/error using acorresponding regression/training data setResponse Surface Equations• …altogether, surrogates can bemisused or abused for analysis• Selecting the “right” type of surrogate(validation) is as important asconstructing the surrogate “right”(verification)Gaussian Process Regression,Or KrigingArtificial Neural NetworksDeveloping Methods and Techniques for System of Systems EngineeringDr. Dimitri Mavris, dimitri.mavris@ae.gatech.edu42
Challenges to Surrogate Modeling forStochastic Processes• For a given set of inputs, the outputs are a distribution, nota single point– Repetitions of each DoE case are required to capture thedistribution– If the variability is high, a large number of repetitions arerequired• The distribution may be non-normal, or be modal in nature– More difficult to accurately model a non-normal distribution– In the case of modal behavior, must determine the drivers forthe modes• Multiple surrogates will be required for each response– The number of surrogates required will be dependant on theassumed distributionDeveloping Methods and Techniques for System of Systems EngineeringDr. Dimitri Mavris, dimitri.mavris@ae.gatech.edu43
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Surrogate ModelsAre surrogate models the silver bullet? No,because:• They contain statistical error that maybe significant• Their applicability is limited by thedomain range <strong>of</strong> the DoE• The adequacy <strong>of</strong> a given surrogatemodel type depends on the nature <strong>of</strong>behavior it is meant to capture• They carry implicit assumptions thatcan be overlookedWhat kinds <strong>of</strong> surrogate models are there? Different surrogate models will capturevarying levels <strong>of</strong> complex behavior with agiven degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy/error using acorresponding regression/training data setResponse Surface Equations• …altogether, surrogates can bemisused or abused for analysis• Selecting the “right” type <strong>of</strong> surrogate(validation) is as important asconstructing the surrogate “right”(verification)Gaussian Process Regression,Or KrigingArtificial Neural NetworksDeveloping Methods and Techniques for <strong>System</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>System</strong>s <strong>Engineering</strong>Dr. Dimitri Mavris, dimitri.mavris@ae.gatech.edu42
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