Part 1 - AL-Tax
Part 1 - AL-Tax Part 1 - AL-Tax
Chapter 15The tradable output went up, while the nontradable one decreased. Both GDPand CPI decreased. Real wages and real private income experienced an increase.We do not report these data here, but it is worth mentioning that the FTAA hasnegligible effects on the rest of the world. In particularly, k rn and k rt are roughlyconstant. Recall that in our artificial economy there is a fixed capital stock. Sincethere is almost no capital outflow or inflow to the rest of the world, the FTAAgenerated a reallocation of capital within Argentina, Brazil, and the USA.The Mercosur experiment showed that when a trade tariff τ ij is reduced, capitalflows from country j to country i. In the FTAA experiment, several τ ij valueswere simultaneously reduced. Thus, it is not possible to anticipate which countryshould receive or send capital abroad. It turned out that the USA receivedcapital, while Brazil and Argentina lost capital.These capital movements merit further discussion. Evidence from the formationof the European Union indicates that capital movement goes from richercountries to poorer ones. If the same were to happen with the FTAA, Brazilshould benefit from a capital inflow.Kehoe and Kehoe (1994b) discussed in detail the issue of capital flows in modelsof trade agreements. They showed that larger welfare gains take place whenthere is capital flow. However, any static model will hardly generate capital flowfrom a richer to a poorer country. What drives capital movement is the capitalrate of return. Hence, a possible way that a model can generate capital flow to apoorer country is by means of a productivity increase.Kim (2000) provided evidence that trade liberalization had a positive impacton the productivity of Korean manufactures. Tybout and Westbrook (1995)showed that a similar event took place in Mexico during the trade liberalizationof the 1990s. Holmes and Schmitz (1995, 2001) and Herrendorf and Teixeira(2001) showed, from a theoretical point of view, that trade liberalization mayhave a positive impact on a country’s productivity.Even without capturing the productivity surge and capital flow associated withtrade opening, the model still predicts welfare gains in both the Mercosur andFTAA experiments. We believe that these gains are lower bounds. We anticipatethat a more sophisticated model will display even larger welfare improvements.The observed GDP fall in the FTAA experiment also deserves attention (Table15.3). That fall was driven by a drop in y bn . Observe that when the Brazilian governmentreduces tariffs and tax rates, there is a fall in government fiscal revenue.This will lead to a decrease in g b and a consequent fall in y bn .The aforementioned fall in g b brings an important point to light. A reductionof the tax burden, as was done in the above experiments, has to be accompanied349
International Taxation HandbookTable 15.3Experimental results for a higher initial US tariff on Brazilian goodsVariable Mercosur FTAA FTAA with tax reformc ab 0.18 0.07 0.91c bb 0.01 0.08 9.77c rb 0.05 0.28 1.27c ub 0.05 22.63 21.42c b 0.00 0.02 10.09l b 0.02 0.13 0.61l bn 0.02 0.44 5.50l bt 0.11 0.55 10.26k bn 0.06 0.85 7.27k bt 0.19 0.13 8.20k bn k bt 0.12 0.40 1.10y bn 0.01 0.59 6.16y bt 0.15 0.33 9.18GDP at benchmark prices 0.06 0.25 0.45Trade deficit 2.33 8.00 5.00Consumer price index 0.04 0.64 9.79Real net wage 0.04 0.20 8.75Real net private income 0.01 0.34 9.43Welfare gain (% of GDP) 0.00 0.10 2.42by a reduction in government expenditure. An interesting exercise would consistof opening the Brazilian economy to international trade and raising some taxrates to compensate for the tariff reduction. This exercise is left for futureresearch.The FTAA with tax reform experiment generated a huge welfare gain (whencompared to the previous two). There was a gain of the order of 2.42% of GDP. TheBrazilian consumer substituted away from c ab and c rb toward c bb , c ub , c b , and leisure.Recall that our model is static. Thus, statements about capital flows have to beevaluated with care. It is interesting to see that in the FTAA experiment the sumk bn k bt decreased by 0.54%, while in the last experiment it decreased by asmaller amount (0.38%). Hence, this third experiment of the FTAA with taxreform suggests that tax reform may help Brazil to attract capital.The third experiment generated a flow of production factors to the tradablesector. Both l bt and k bt increased. Resources left the nontradable sector. As a consequenceof this reallocation of resources, y bt grew and y bn fell.350
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International <strong>Tax</strong>ation HandbookTable 15.3Experimental results for a higher initial US tariff on Brazilian goodsVariable Mercosur FTAA FTAA with tax reformc ab 0.18 0.07 0.91c bb 0.01 0.08 9.77c rb 0.05 0.28 1.27c ub 0.05 22.63 21.42c b 0.00 0.02 10.09l b 0.02 0.13 0.61l bn 0.02 0.44 5.50l bt 0.11 0.55 10.26k bn 0.06 0.85 7.27k bt 0.19 0.13 8.20k bn k bt 0.12 0.40 1.10y bn 0.01 0.59 6.16y bt 0.15 0.33 9.18GDP at benchmark prices 0.06 0.25 0.45Trade deficit 2.33 8.00 5.00Consumer price index 0.04 0.64 9.79Real net wage 0.04 0.20 8.75Real net private income 0.01 0.34 9.43Welfare gain (% of GDP) 0.00 0.10 2.42by a reduction in government expenditure. An interesting exercise would consistof opening the Brazilian economy to international trade and raising some taxrates to compensate for the tariff reduction. This exercise is left for futureresearch.The FTAA with tax reform experiment generated a huge welfare gain (whencompared to the previous two). There was a gain of the order of 2.42% of GDP. TheBrazilian consumer substituted away from c ab and c rb toward c bb , c ub , c b , and leisure.Recall that our model is static. Thus, statements about capital flows have to beevaluated with care. It is interesting to see that in the FTAA experiment the sumk bn k bt decreased by 0.54%, while in the last experiment it decreased by asmaller amount (0.38%). Hence, this third experiment of the FTAA with taxreform suggests that tax reform may help Brazil to attract capital.The third experiment generated a flow of production factors to the tradablesector. Both l bt and k bt increased. Resources left the nontradable sector. As a consequenceof this reallocation of resources, y bt grew and y bn fell.350