Description of methods and sources for Albania - INSTAT
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Description of methods and sources for Albania - INSTAT

Description of methods and sources for Albania - INSTAT Description of methods and sources for Albania - INSTAT

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12.07.2015 Views

IPA 2009 Multi-beneficiary StatisticalCooperation Programme3.4 The role of direct and indirect estimation methodsThe estimation of annual GDP by production approach is based on direct estimationmethods and indirect method is not used till now. The annual data sources arestandard and the same for each year.3.5 The roles of benchmarks and extrapolationsThe work is carried out by using all data sourcing available and for grossing upimputation method is used at the fullest extent of disaggregating, both to ensure goodreliability of the estimates and to provide a sufficiently detailed breakdown to reflecttrends in the various sectors (for agriculture, financial and non financial enterprisesbenchmark and extrapolation year are not used). The benchmark year (2001) andextrapolation are used only for estimation of dwelling activities (imputed rent) and inthe following years price and volume indexes are used for estimation of indicators.3.6 The main approaches adopted with respect to exhaustivenessTo ensure exhaustiveness of GDP estimates, the staffs at the office of nationalaccounts has used the so-called “expert” method to measure economic undergroundactivities, using existing data sources covering the period 1996-2003. The method isbased on experts’ opinions where they assess the share of non observed economy ineach branch of economic activity. This share is then used for grossing up data onoutput, intermediate costs and value added for each branchThe production approach to estimate GDP, the methodology currently adopted fornon observed economy estimations, suffers from a high degree of subjectivity. Forthis reason, INSTAT Albania envisages its improvement and moving to a newmethodology largely based on a statistical approach. At the end of 2005 INSTATfinalized the methodological revision of GDP for the period 1996-2002. The work onGDP revision already started in February 2004 when the co-operation and support byIMF and Twinning project 5 was intensified with many task forces in the area of nonfinancialnational accounts and pilot projects on exhaustiveness of GDP estimates.The main purpose of the revision was to improve the calculation of GDP at currentprices from the production and expenditure approach and particularly with criteria onexhaustiveness.5Twinning project was financially provided by European Commission andInternational Monetary Fund technically realized by ISTAT, Statistical Institute ofItaly, in partnership with Statistics Finland and the Hungarian Central StatisticalOffice in framework of SAA and CARDS assistance program.52/236

IPA 2009 Multi-beneficiary StatisticalCooperation ProgrammeA separate estimate is made for the “non-observed” economy, comprising allbusiness activity undertaken by enterprises that are not recorded in the BusinessRegister (and therefore not in the SBS), nor in the VAT data. The method involvesthe comparison of the level of employment recorded in the observed economyestimates with data on labor supply recorded in the LSMS. The difference gives thenumber of employees outside the observed economy and implicitly includes anadjustment for under-reporting of employment in the data on observed economy.Estimates of value added per employee are made on the basis of similar ratios fromthe observed economy data, and applied at branch and size group level to the numberof workers in the non-observed economy. The accuracy of the LSMS at activity levelmay not be good enough to apply the methodology at activity level.All main exhaustiveness adjustments within the compilation of GDP by theproduction approach were already mentioned in the chapter 7. Total exhaustivenessadjustments of GDP 2006 are estimated at 228 450 million LEK or 28.7 percent ofGDP (without illegal activities). The purpose of Chapter 7 is to present mainmethods and sources of adjustments for non-response, misreporting, non-registeredactivities of households and other statistical deficiencies. Also, some currentproblems and weaknesses along with further steps on improvement of exhaustivenessare explained in this chapter. Exhaustiveness adjustments are explained in moredetail in Chapter 7.24Table 3.17: Size of adjustments in National Accounts, 2006Description Total ObservedIn Million LEKAdjusted*1,525,496 1,066,693 458,803Output at basic pricesLess: intermediate consumption at purchasers’prices 730,311 499,959 230,353Less: financial services indirectly measuredFISIM 30,446 30,446 0Gross value added at basic prices 764,739 536,288 228,450Plus: taxes on product 121,188 121,188Less: subsidies on products 3,718 3,718Gross domestic product at market prices 882,209 653,758 228,450* Non observed economy53/236

IPA 2009 Multi-beneficiary StatisticalCooperation ProgrammeA separate estimate is made <strong>for</strong> the “non-observed” economy, comprising allbusiness activity undertaken by enterprises that are not recorded in the BusinessRegister (<strong>and</strong> there<strong>for</strong>e not in the SBS), nor in the VAT data. The method involvesthe comparison <strong>of</strong> the level <strong>of</strong> employment recorded in the observed economyestimates with data on labor supply recorded in the LSMS. The difference gives thenumber <strong>of</strong> employees outside the observed economy <strong>and</strong> implicitly includes anadjustment <strong>for</strong> under-reporting <strong>of</strong> employment in the data on observed economy.Estimates <strong>of</strong> value added per employee are made on the basis <strong>of</strong> similar ratios fromthe observed economy data, <strong>and</strong> applied at branch <strong>and</strong> size group level to the number<strong>of</strong> workers in the non-observed economy. The accuracy <strong>of</strong> the LSMS at activity levelmay not be good enough to apply the methodology at activity level.All main exhaustiveness adjustments within the compilation <strong>of</strong> GDP by theproduction approach were already mentioned in the chapter 7. Total exhaustivenessadjustments <strong>of</strong> GDP 2006 are estimated at 228 450 million LEK or 28.7 percent <strong>of</strong>GDP (without illegal activities). The purpose <strong>of</strong> Chapter 7 is to present main<strong>methods</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>sources</strong> <strong>of</strong> adjustments <strong>for</strong> non-response, misreporting, non-registeredactivities <strong>of</strong> households <strong>and</strong> other statistical deficiencies. Also, some currentproblems <strong>and</strong> weaknesses along with further steps on improvement <strong>of</strong> exhaustivenessare explained in this chapter. Exhaustiveness adjustments are explained in moredetail in Chapter 7.24Table 3.17: Size <strong>of</strong> adjustments in National Accounts, 2006<strong>Description</strong> Total ObservedIn Million LEKAdjusted*1,525,496 1,066,693 458,803Output at basic pricesLess: intermediate consumption at purchasers’prices 730,311 499,959 230,353Less: financial services indirectly measuredFISIM 30,446 30,446 0Gross value added at basic prices 764,739 536,288 228,450Plus: taxes on product 121,188 121,188Less: subsidies on products 3,718 3,718Gross domestic product at market prices 882,209 653,758 228,450* Non observed economy53/236

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