Description of methods and sources for Albania - INSTAT

IPA 2009 Multi-beneficiary StatisticalCooperation Programme3.4 The role of direct and indirect estimation methodsThe estimation of annual GDP by production approach is based on direct estimationmethods and indirect method is not used till now. The annual data sources arestandard and the same for each year.3.5 The roles of benchmarks and extrapolationsThe work is carried out by using all data sourcing available and for grossing upimputation method is used at the fullest extent of disaggregating, both to ensure goodreliability of the estimates and to provide a sufficiently detailed breakdown to reflecttrends in the various sectors (for agriculture, financial and non financial enterprisesbenchmark and extrapolation year are not used). The benchmark year (2001) andextrapolation are used only for estimation of dwelling activities (imputed rent) and inthe following years price and volume indexes are used for estimation of indicators.3.6 The main approaches adopted with respect to exhaustivenessTo ensure exhaustiveness of GDP estimates, the staffs at the office of nationalaccounts has used the so-called “expert” method to measure economic undergroundactivities, using existing data sources covering the period 1996-2003. The method isbased on experts’ opinions where they assess the share of non observed economy ineach branch of economic activity. This share is then used for grossing up data onoutput, intermediate costs and value added for each branchThe production approach to estimate GDP, the methodology currently adopted fornon observed economy estimations, suffers from a high degree of subjectivity. Forthis reason, INSTAT Albania envisages its improvement and moving to a newmethodology largely based on a statistical approach. At the end of 2005 INSTATfinalized the methodological revision of GDP for the period 1996-2002. The work onGDP revision already started in February 2004 when the co-operation and support byIMF and Twinning project 5 was intensified with many task forces in the area of nonfinancialnational accounts and pilot projects on exhaustiveness of GDP estimates.The main purpose of the revision was to improve the calculation of GDP at currentprices from the production and expenditure approach and particularly with criteria onexhaustiveness.5Twinning project was financially provided by European Commission andInternational Monetary Fund technically realized by ISTAT, Statistical Institute ofItaly, in partnership with Statistics Finland and the Hungarian Central StatisticalOffice in framework of SAA and CARDS assistance program.52/236