Description of methods and sources for Albania - INSTAT

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IPA 2009 Multi-beneficiary StatisticalCooperation Programmereason why we have not included this data has to do with the kind of deflators thatcan be used.18.1.7 Ministry of Agriculture and Food (MAF)This Ministry provides data for INSTAT classified in products’ level, which are lateraggregated and estimated from the agriculture sector of INSTAT. This data is givenon a quarterly basis and is available to the needs of our sector 55-60 days after therespective quarter has finished. This data is available to the agricultural sector ofINSTAT after 25-30 days and this sector is responsible for a quarterly estimation atcurrent and constant prices.18.2 MethodologyThe methodology used considers the development of quarterly series of GDP atcurrent and constant prices. The series in constant prices are based upon fixed,2005=100, prices. The basis for this methodology is to follow the presentmethodology for the annual accounts GDP as closely as possible, and to ensure thatthe annual movements derived from the quarterly series exactly match the publishedannual series at both current and constant prices. The method used to estimate QGDPis considered as an indirect method. When a direct method is used, we estimateoutput and intermediate consummation separately, and we produce from them thevalue added as a difference. When an indirect method is used, we have only somequarterly indicators which can provide value or volume indicators, from which weproduce value added. We get annual value added and quarter indicators, based onwhich we make benchmarking process. Therefore, these are used as outputindicators.VAT data instead of STS data are used by most of branches. This data has proven tobe more reliable than INSTAT’s STS and it has greater coverage and response rates.This is not the ideal situation because changes in administrative procedures couldquickly change and invalidate quarterly movements. Based on an analysis conducted,it was found that activity classifications change over time, some months of data aremissing for continuing enterprises and large data entry errors were fairly common.With regard to the classification issue, we have concluded to solve this problem byusing the classification that the enterprises have at their balance sheet if this oneexists.For example, for 2008 we have the balance sheet of 2007 which means that by theend of this year the enterprises will have this classification. For those enterpriseswhere the balance sheet do not exist, we see if the data in the annual surveys is there,and if it is there we put this classification, and if not, we leave the existingclassification at the declaration format of Tax Authorization. For the period that theannual data do not exist, we put the classification of the quarterly survey if theenterprise exists, and if not, we leave it unchanged. When these forms ofclassifications were applied to the VAT data, the volatility of data for most industrieswas significantly reduced.162/236
IPA 2009 Multi-beneficiary StatisticalCooperation ProgrammeOther problems are related to the errors of the data provided and the missing months,which can be identified properly if the analyses are conducted on the individuallevel. After these analyses are conducted, the enterprises can be arranged in groupsbased on NACE 4 classification, and then on the classification used by Quarterly andAnnual National Account concept, 25 industries in total.The next step has to do with the benchmarking process. Benchmarking deals with theissue of combining a series of high-frequency data with a series of lower-frequencydata for a certain variable into a consistent time series. Based on this process, thetotal of four quarter indicators is equal with the total of annual value added, but theprocess does not change the ratio of indicator.The indirect method is based on the assumption that the value added/output rate isconstant during the period that we make the estimation. This procedure is done atcurrent and constant prices. When quarterly indicators are of value oriented, wedeflate those with the respective index, and later go through the benchmark processwith two series, both at constant prices.When both quarterly value added series, at current and constant prices are produced,we make the aggregation of these series in 7 branches of the economy. The next stephas to do with the seasonal adjustment. We eliminate seasonal effects from bothseries. After this process, we cannot have exactly the same value between annual andquarterly periods for a specific year, because of seasonal adjustments’ process.18.2.1 Sequence of compilationThe general way applied in Albania during the indirect method is as follows:a) Data-set and balance of quarterly data at current and constant pricesfrom different sources for the appropriate recent year.b) Development of time series for quarterly data so as different periods arecomparable.c) Benchmark of the non-seasonally adjusted series to the relevant annualseries.d) Elimination of the seasonality from aggregated quarterly seriese) Comparability of seasonal series.It should be underlined that there is no requirement for the sum of seasonallyadjusted quarters to be equal to the annual total for any particular year. Under normalcircumstances, there will be enough variation in seasonality and/or trading dayeffects to explain a gap between the two.18.2.2 Series expressed in 2005 pricesThe series in this release are expressed in the average prices of the year 2005.ItiPA v e r a g etiiP2 0 0 5i163/236
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